Member Info for Ste2000

hundreds of 555 share trades going through -this has happened so many times before

has that pric moulding done another reckless interview, or has his old mum abused another journalist?

blackrock have gone from 1.3%ish to below 0.3%, most likely to zero so that also explains a big %

wow 100% premium - wish I was holding. if anyone here is, well played and please invest your winnings into THG :)

Ulta's RNS is so clear compared to THG - one simple thing they do is make it clear what % of sales incrase is volume and what is price
THG could take a lesson here on how simple a good trading update is. All people want to know is:
- how is the revenue made up (price/ volume/ organic)
- margin per business unit

also, notice ultra have slightly reduced cap ex - I think this is smart in this macro environment, showing they are sympathetic to preserving cash. I would like to see THG do this, even if it is only a small saving through the cash adjusted items (60m is way too high anyway) and also cap ex (instead of 200m, be good if they match 2021 at circa 185m)

and the ebitda - clearly cult beauty was a terrible ROI buy - 275m cost for circa 170m revenue at 10m editda, so a x27 buy
the production facilities etc make sense as did the move to the US (dermstore), but cult made no sense (its smaller than lookfantastic/ has a few brands look didnt but for 275m!!)

most middle east currencies like UAE, KSA etc are pegged to dollar, so it could be as much as 25%+ getting a 10-13% free exchange benefit
what was a headwind in 2021, is now a huge tailwind

2phevs, he shoots, he scores...nice detective work

moulding owns the lease hold, THG owns the asset - so in your world, no one who owns a lease hold house or flat can sell. only freeholder... gosh, you are a proper thicko
I am basing my numbers on my discounted cash flow model + barclays + citi + jeffries report analyst reports
what ae you basing your lack of insight on, kid?

They do - the good news is we have 530m in the bank - this will last us to circa end of 2025 with circa 100m in the bank + 170m RCF, so we are liquid and the board / management have the time to implement the correct, long term benefitting changes

would be great if they can find ways to preserve cash harder (such as sell hotels and spas/ better ebitda margin due to country mix esp USA etc et)

Hi London, great analysis.
The issue THG (and all non profit/ growth companies) face is that the market now only wants profit (as inflation erodes future profit). Until this sentiment changes, THG will be valued on a low X of sales (circa x0.4 on 2021 sales/ x0.3 on 2022 estimated sales) - this is clearly very very low

Ecom in UK and EU is at best valued at X0.5 at the moment

The below shows how even the analysts are struggling to value each division (btw do you have anymore info on the Citi report?)

THG really has to give the market confidence on EBITDA - it has to deliver in excess of 4% (which is analyst expectations) and have a good forward guide. Ingenuity is key as it is high margin.

If the market gets confidence that 2.6bn sales and 160m editda is nailed on, this will improve quickly. THG simply cannot miss and have to deliver, which I feel they can/will as they have used the FY to set realistic targets, which I am sure they plan to beat

Revenue should be a beat in my opinion, as its S1 and inflation doom and gloom was not as pronounced vs this month. Also as 19% of business is from USA, dollar sterling conversion will be a big headwind.

Cash preservation is key to - they plan to burn 200m cash FY, so any good news here will help

you run a burger van - got it, explains your inputs. many thanks

Moulding must also be aware of this - the UK simply cannot value anything, esp ecom player/ tech
i do hope the board leverage the new separation to the max to utilise premium listings or USA listings or external investment into the individual divisions etc, as LSE cannot be trusted anymore

so many conspiracy theorists
this wont go private (read through Kando posts -very articulate on why)
but broadly no benefit to moulding or big shareholders (as their cash is tied up into a private business with no share liquidity)
the market is moving the SP - if you cant wait for recovery in late 2023 or 2024 sell now as could get worse (but THg has enough cash until end of 2025, with 100m+ remaining based on current market conditions; possibility to massively improve as well)

Sherlock is right.
Its safe to assume its not a Ponzi scheme - this is a company that has been in business for 18 years, where the CEO is the majority owner and has never sold a shae (even at 750p) and has recently bought more (despite owning 22%)

also the chairman, an experienced city heavyweight, has invested 1m pounds of his own money after 3 months DD

Jupiter are clearly selling down - they are performing as back as THG in last 12 months, and are facing cash withdrawals so are distressed. its not ideal they are selling and it is depressing the SP, but someone is buying them (lets wait for that RNS)

I believe the SP will go down further due to macro economics, but THG has 530m cash (170m undrawn RCF) and can access further capital if needed (which I dont belive and nor does the comapny and nor do analysts believe is necessary as they should have at least 100m by end of 2025) - menaing as investors we can ride this macro economic climate out

it is bloody annoying, i agree, but better to focus on the cash strenght (thanks to those morons at softbank) than all the negatives most of which are out of THG control

Ps there are a lot of good and recent tailwinds now - whey is down, oil and shipping costs are down, online sales are solid and improved in July vs YTD as BCR report shows, beauty manufacturers are doing well, Nestle is increasing ingenuity shops etc and the company did confirm it is trading inline with its plan (22-25% growth) in April

I share your frustrations - makes me sick they do F all, and then reject a perfectly reasonable offer
500p to 750p to 62.9p in less than 2 years
pathetic

clearly selling in the background

yes the shares for hitting certain SP was very annoying, but tbf I bought after this so only dilluted those who bought around IPO and before Jan/Feb 21

read the IPO document (i did) - its all their including which PE sold out.

moulding to his credit has never sold any shares - he has only bought (for friends and for his charitable causes)
THG swapped some shares owed to him for the freehold of the company's physician buildings (+ the debt on them) - which was a horror move in hindsight (straight out of the PE playbook)