Member Info for Ste2000

yeah something could happen on nutrition but i think they need to have Q4 done with the lower whey rpices, as not sure a business growing 1% YTD is interesting to anyone....

but if it started to grow again + whey prices continue to decline + more licensing deals like Iceland, it does become a very nice business that would clearly be worth more than todays total market cap

problem is THG is spending money hand over foot due to BS ingenuity commerce

so much work is needed to fix this dog, which should be a fairly easy company to run

first thing, dispose of all the vanity hotels/ spas/ freeholds and leaseholds not within the core needs of the company
cut capex on ingenuity fully (esp on the commerce side)

increase prices slightly more to ensure 130m ebitda is hit

hiring freeze and try to fire some staff

etc etc etc

theres no conspiracy/ no big deals going on behind the scenes
thg has 1396m shares, of which most days less than 1% are traded
its going down as its 1/ issued 3 profit warnings since Dec '21, 2/ macro climate, 3/ broadly a rather s hit company who know one trusts anymore

i pray everyday for the RNS that says T/O at 170p+ and was too greedy to sell last time when this actually happened, but cant see how it happens again ....at least not for years

my guess Coldspy, is that whats happening in the background is that ......more people are selling than buying

yeah its really sad
i guess its what happens if you repeatedly miss bottom line profit, and then start to also miss topline revenue

the valuations are now discounted cash flow, which is the harshest way to value an unprofitbale 'growth' company - SOTP would be much higher and THG now need to go down that route with more partnerships and possible sales of divisons

what a total mess everything since that infamous capital markets day has been

shares dont drop 5% and open in auction just due to a down grade.
as usual with thg, there is always something worse going on
how hard is it to simply sell some protein products and some beauty products - that is all they literally are...an ecom seller of discounted products

this is different and worse - it opened down 5% in auction on no known news
something else / bad is coming out later IMO

what the F is wrong with this share now

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/dy

Good proxy for what will happen in Europe (and the sweet whet index used by THG ) in circa 4-6 weeks time

logically you are of course right. unless he does not simply see himself as a landlord and will milk THG for the ever growing lease liabilities, and keep charging them for these vanity hotels and spa upgrade costs

and then sell off each building once not needed

these just no fight left in this share or this company
X15 oversubscribed at IPO at 500p to zero interest now

big time - this company has never cared about its shreholders. I doubt it cares about anyone except sofina and balderton.
hence why JUP are selling, hence why Rowe Price sold down, why blackrock sold off etc etc

ps thanks directors for zero buys so far...40p too much for you...but 170p not enough..F U

Iceland have a frozen food mypro exclusive
tesco/ sainsury/ coop/ morrisons/ boots all sell mypro protein bars and some shake products - this can be developed further, as can any additional license opp outside of frozen food

lets hope more licensing opps/ distributor agreements to drive distribution in supermarkets happen in other countries outside of UK (THG did confirm it would in mid year results presentation)

2phevs - your shout about India is a very good one. they already have 2 DCs there, and will definitely see it as a growth market for MyPro

I think this may be a more accurate read for whey, as MM specifically mentioned sweet whey protein and bought in euros

Based on their volumes, they would likely get the lowest price not the average due to economies of scale

but as Anacott says they seem to have locked in around low 900s for the next 12 months was my take - point being inline with the highs of Q1

https://www.clal.it/en/index.php?section=whey

Good points Golden

The drag on Mypro is because they were forced to buy the whey up until Q3 at the elavated prices. I get the impression they have bough all they need for Q4 and Q1 23 at around 910ish from the call - so this should materially help the margin

but yes, dont see how they can sell Nutrition unless there is a condition they use ingenuity as the supply partner etc

Golden - I see ingenuity as THG supply chain network. if they can get more clients using it, it dillutes the costs for the Group to run it for Nutrition and Beauty

I see the 'whales' as probably being more like the coke or homebase or matalan model - whereby ingenuity links in and helps with fulfilment, taking the money and delivery

lets hope some whales land, in the meantime, it does seem we are at the mercy of whey prices, so lets pray they keep drooping or at least dont go up

good to see the US has predictably bought this down
at 46 I felt ok
back down to near 40, we are Fcuked
guess it stands no chance of moving up substanially until circa end of 2023 if they can be cash flow neutral
and then if they do actually hit profit, it will go back to the right level

but I guess no one believes any of their predictions now as its 3 profit downgrades in a row

you can tell I am worried Golden, that I have read that document word from word

its on page 251:

Included within Freehold buildings is an asset with a NBV of £44.1m that has been reclassified post year end as an asset held for sale under IFRS 5.
The asset is no longer required by the Group for its original intended purpose. The Group are in advanced discussions with a prospective buyer and
the sale is expected to complete by the end of Q2 2022. This has not led to any adjustments to the net book value of the asset at 31 December 2021.

its just so hard to know tbh Golden
you would think they can easily delivery their numbers, as they are essentially a discounter for beauty and mypro so should be doing well like Aldi, Dunelm etx are doing at the expense of higher end retailers

but THG and moulding have a habit of missing bottom line targets, and I am nervous about ingenuity. it is clear they have lost clients so I dot think there will deliver good website numbers, but maybe they have new revenues to boost this

and then they should be making a fortune of dollar to sterling E/R

like you, I just hope they kill vanity projects (in the annual report they note they expect to sell a fixed asset end of q2 for 44m so maybe that is one gone) and also have cut back on capex...clearly there is no need for more warehouse space

guidance was flat editda in absolute vs 2021 so circa 161m
not one analyst bought it
if they reinterate this, we will re rate