Member Info for Stayingpatient

@mark_rs Indeed, well done. Taking care of one's finances is one thing, to nuture and take care of one's soul is something altogether different. I'm still learning after 62 years on this beautiful planet 🙏

@mark_rs & LLP not an easy territory to navigate at the moment. As I said recently, I sold everything a few weeks ago at just under £13. It's the longest I've been out of the markets in over 40 years.

I think one of the most challenging issues at times like this, is, not knowing what to do when you're experiencing cognitive dissonance. Your gut says one thing...either buy, sell or hold & your logic having considered the facts says something different.

Everyone has their own objectives, risk profile, timelines, financial goals etc. So there isn't a particular approach that can be considered as an investment panacea.

I would say however, that FOMO has the potential to make us all act impetuously, and perhaps irrationally. When I became aware that this conflict was quite different in it's complexity and it's potential to upend the traditional capitalist model and how global markets interact, I spoke at length with my good lady about what I felt was the right response.

Given that we're in our 60's, my wife's retired and I'm still working in my general contracting building business, but hoping to retire/semi retire in the next 12 months, we agreed to sell all our holdings and do nothing until the conflict is resolved, no matter how long it takes.

Fortunately, we're under no pressure financially and we can wait it out. We will reinvest at some point, but the calm & peace of mind that has become more apparent over the last few weeks is most welcome but a little strange. By that I mean, that investing in equity markets requires that you accept the emotional highs & lows that goes with it. Not having to worry about SP's dropping is, pardon my pun, worth it's weight in gold.

I think Badland summed it up well, recently, when he said, and I'm paraphrasing, "He sold out to save his sanity", and that "he was going to drink coffee & listen to the birds sing". What a wise man, is my response. Anyway, for what it's worth, I hope some of what I've shared might help.

All the best everyone 👍

During this dreadful season of bad news, here's a positive announcement from RR.

Source: Rolls-Royce plc https://share.google/ExsacbrKzBALcmqpU

This on the BBC website a few minutes ago:

Iran's foreign ministry denies Tehran-Washington talkspublished at 13:08

13:08Breaking

Iran's foreign ministry has issued a statement, saying: "We deny what US President Donald Trump said regarding negotiations taking place between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran."

Quoted by CBS News, the BBC's US partner, the foreign ministry adds: "The Islamic Republic of Iran adheres to its position rejecting any type of negotiations before achieving Iran's goals from the war.”

@Investerintheknow Thanks for the correction 👍 I meant to put trillion...Just a bit of a difference between a billion and a trillion! 😅

I'm not convinced that Trump's post about talks with Iran means that this conflict is over anytime soon.

There's a very clear juxtaposition that's emerged during the last few weeks. The military conflict and the global economic consequences.

Even if there's a ceasefire or an end to the war announced within the next 24 hours, the effect on the global economy will be long lasting. I'm sure, any "deal" with Iran will include demands for significant financial reparations to be paid by the US. That's not going to happen. The US have national debt of 38 trillion dollars, which is increasing by the minute. They collect 5 billion dollars in tax each year but spend 7 billion dollars.

Hence why the government shutdowns keep occurring. This could well affect Trump's mid term ratings. The US government will never acquiesce to paying anything out to Iran, and that is likely to be a huge issue for Iran in considering any "peace settlement". Even if terms are agreed, who really thinks that Iran will not try to rebuild a nuclear capability? So the whole mess continues in an ever disastrous cycle.

The US is broke. When they funded Ukraine to the tune of 60 billion dollars, they had to borrow it from China. They're unlikely to want to fund the US to anything like that magnitude in the future.

Then there's the issue of the UK indebtedness via the gilt markets. The interest on our national debt of £2.8 trillion is £110 billion pounds per annum. That's over 90% of UK GDP. The cost of borrowing for the UK has surged around 12% since the war started. Every 0.1% increase in borrowing costs, equates to an extra £2 billion pounds in interest...£2 billion!!!...For goodness sake!!! How much good could that do the NHS or schools or the police force?

The international markets will not keep writing cheques to fund the UK's PSBR. Sooner or later the Bank of England will quite possibly have to start printing money again, quantitative easing as it's referred to.

That, as history has demonstrated time and again, pushes inflation up. That's the last thing our country needs. The ripple effects from this sorry saga are going to be far reaching and financially painful.

I look at my grand kids, the oldest of whom is nearly 13. He's a fine young lad, who's recently started at the Air Training Cadets. He's enjoying everything about, the friendship, learning new skills, even having to obey orders! Lol!

I pick him up on a Friday night and drop him off at home. As he chatters about his week at school, his pals, what he's learned at ATC that night, I think how different the world is than when I was on the cusp on my teenage years. So much uncertainty, so many moving parts that are so precariously balanced. What kind of world are we leaving for them?

Rant over...a few of my thoughts this morning.

Have a good week all 👍

@fordm

as per your usual m.o. your opinions represent a deeply hostile perspective, which lack reasoned and respectful debate, relies on anti-semitic conspiracy tropes, and excuses the brutal actions of a totalitarian state.

your lack of reasoned debate and self restraint is consistent with your keyboard warrior, infantile, fisted crayon, style of engagement.

"perhaps the hanging of mossad agents, which is allowable under spy acts." this remark is deeply unconscionable, and illustrates your attempt to mask the systemic execution of political dissidents, protesters, and minorities in iran. the iranian regime frequently labels protesters "spies" or "mohareb" (enemies of god) to justify state-sanctioned murder.

it seems that you are saying, that the slaughtering also of more than 30,000 people killed in crackdowns is acceptable, is that what you're saying?

because they were "spies", is a horrific rationalization of mass violence against civilians.

using the term,"the jews" to describe a geopolitical opponent is an antisemitic trope that equates all jewish people with the actions of the state of israel.

similarly, "little hats did", is a direct, mocking antisemitic slur referring to kippot (yarmulkes), reducing a complex geopolitical situation to a childish, ****** characterization.

your position, attempts to paint iran as a misrepresented, civilized country while ignoring that it is a totalitarian state. the regime strictly controls the public and private spheres, they've further suppressed free speech, by disabling internet connections. they enforce mandatory hijab laws, and suppresses opposition with violence.

your assertion that israel have been, "terrorising every country in the region since it's spawning back in 1948", mischaracterizes the historical facts, as it ignores that israel has been involved in multiple defensive wars against neighbors that sought its destruction, and maintains peace treaties with several nations in the region.

your various assertions are not valid political opinions, but a mix of hateful rhetoric, antisemitic slurs, and propaganda intended to justify mass killing by the iranian regime. it excuses the death of tens of thousands of iranian citizens while promoting a deeply prejudiced view of israel and jewish people.

please show some restraint and engage in a civil, adult manner if you're able.

@pernix Agreed, Trump has bombed his way into a military cul-de-sac. He's either going to have to find a humiliating, and from his perspective, a premature off ramp, which, makes him look weak, although for him, that's a pretty low bar, or double down and press on with the conflict.

Either way, things are not looking good. From a global economic point of view, according to the chief of the IEA, the world is facing an energy security crisis, greater than that during the 1973 oil crisis.

The chief of the IEA is calling for air travel to be used, only where no other options are available, lower speed limits for motor vehicles and employees to start working from home.

Qatar, further to the attack on their gas fields are facing a 17% shortfall of their annual output, for, between, the next 3 to 5 years. Even if he war ends tomorrow, the economic fallout will last for some time.

That's simply impossible to predict.

US futures going South. Anyone's guess how this afternoon goes. There's no way to get a read on where this conflict is heading and how widely and how deeply it's going to affect the world's economy.

I did sell everything 2 weeks ago and am quite at ease not doing anything at the moment. I'll sit it out until the conflict is done and a "floor" is visible.

For the time being, based on what is currently known, this looks like it could be a downward trend, with relief rallies along the way. We're down around 16% from it's recent high.

I've been in the markets for a long time & I don't like being out. However, 2 weeks into having gone into cash, I've noticed my concern of missing out is diminishing, which I think is a good thing. I've avoided the temptation to "jump back in" when a small rally appears.

Please don't take what I've said as a personal recommendation. Everyone will have there own investment objectives based on what is right for them.

All the best everyone.

It seems that markets have gone South this afternoon, over the US producer prices index. Producers costs have increased significantly, putting pressure on prices, higher inflation will now be more in focus going forward as the FED decides what it's next interest rate decisions will be.

Unfortunately, as the oil price has risen so much recently, higher wholesale and retail prices are as inevitable as night follows day.

Sadly, I'm still not seeing any evidence of an early end to this conflict. It looks like Trump is somewhat "on the ropes", regarding other nations helping out with securing the strait of hormuz, and although it's still early days, even though it feels longer, this may well turn out to be for Trump, what the Poll Tax was for Margaret Thatcher.

The biggest tragedy in this conflict is the loss of the lives of innocent people, mothers, fathers, children, brothers, sisters...whole families. There is nothing "glorious" about war. Some of the soundbites coming from Pete Hegseth and Trump are particularly jingoistic, which is concerning to say the least.

Let's hope & pray 🙏 that the situation de-escalates sooner rather than later.

From a philosophical perspective, it makes me increasingly appreciative & grateful, for all that I've been blessed with...I'm not referring to money. But a loving family and friends, a roof over my head, a comfortable bed, food in my stomach, living in a beautiful part of the country, freedom to walk where I want, ride my bike and the freedom to sing and be a musician.

Some huge buy orders going through after the close!

@Badlands Cheers, agreed. There's far too much hatred in the world, without it coming into your personal landscape.

@Investerintheknow Many thanks. I'll keep active here as I do enjoy it. As for and end of year target...that's something I'm still thinking about.

I think for the time being, that I'd rather reiterate that RR is a phenomenonal company with a great future. There's simply too much that it's got to offer the world for it not to be a seriously major player in multiple engineering and technology disciplines.

We've got some serious "spanners in the works" globally that are roiling too many sectors just now.

All the best chaps!

i sold all my rr holdings last friday morning, including bae & bab****. i'm up 750% since 2023 and like others here, it's afforded my family certain opportunities that might have come much later in life. for this we're extremely grateful.

i didn't like coming out of the market, but given where i am in my life journey, it was the right decision.

from a market perspective, i don't see this conflict ending anytime soon. i won't opine here on the reasons that i hold this view. what i would say, is that i'm carefully following the various sources of news, available to all of us and drawing my conclusions from what i see and hear.

i'm going to remain in cash for the time being. i will buy back in, but only when i believe the time is right. currently, there are too many moving parts to make a reasonably informed assessment as to when that might be.

one of the reasons i read and contribute to this board, is that for the most part it offers a forum, where there is a certain esprit de corps, reasoned & cogent debate with light hearted banter.

unfortunately, it has of late, been tainted by posts that display little or none of the above characteristics by a certain individual. there was a period last year where we had a similar types of contributions from another individual.

it's difficult to understand the mind of anyone, who initiates and apparently seems to enjoy, drafting such caustic, personal and vindictive comments, in such an infantile fisted crayon manner.

one would hope that, anyone claiming to have travelled and lived in various parts of the world, would enrich one's world view, their vocabulary, their ability to be articulate without being acerbic, their self awareness and sense of compassion and empathy.

my appeal, is that you think long and hard before you engage further on this board. i would like to think that you're better than how you come across in your posts. but for some reason or reasons, you've become bitter and synical.

on occasions you do make sense, however, you consistently discredit yourself, with your attitude and the repugnant way you demean other contributors.

we are all capable of change for the better.

It seems that Trump has manged to quench the troubled oil market, at least for now. It remains to be seen how he's going to extricate the US from this conflict. Unfortunately, he has grabbed a tiger by the tail & he's fanned the flames of the Iranian hard liners, and yes, I did say hard liners.

They're very different from innately peace loving people who, when attacked, rise up to fight for their country and their inalienable freedoms, with no desire to oppress their fellow countrymen, women and children through a tyrannical ideology, that involves intimidation and violence of the very worst kind.

So we have a juxtaposition of oil and stock market navigation and an extremely complex conflict that has spread much wider than Trump had envisaged.

It calls for the wisdom of Solomon to work this deeply lamentable state of affairs out, whilst trying to minimise further loss of life and avoid a much more protracted conflict.

Typo: hard liners...

It's as simple as the sharp rise in the oil price. High oil prices means everything starts to cost more. As I said last week, there's zero visibility as to how long this will last. The Iranian haed liners are now more deeply entrenched in their resolve that they will not surrender. Trump will find that he comes under increasing pressure over the coming days and weeks to fund an off ramp from this conflict.

This will prove very difficult, given Israel's need to keep the pressure up on Iran. Unfortunately, this is one very large, humanitarian, geopolitical and economic mess. Talk about the law of unintended consequences 😔

@retirment I've seen this many times over the years. I don't want it to be, but, it may well be just a "relief rally". Unless there is unequivocal, significant progress towards a ceasefire/surrender over the weekend, stocks may well have further to fall come Monday's opening.

Yes, we're seeing Iran's war capability being eroded, day by day. However, Trump's statement calling for an "unconditional surrender" opens the door to this becoming a longer conflict that it might otherwise be. He's naive if he thinks he's going to be able to transform the moral compass and ethical framework of the leaders and the IRGC.

Oil breached 90 dollars today, upwards of 200 oil tankers are stranded in the straits of hormuz. Insurance companies have withdrawn cover for vessels entering there. Sophisticated electronic jamming equipment is being used to disable the navigation equipment of any vessel trying to makes it's way through.

Although only 20% of the world's oil passes through hormuz, the oil price doesn't discriminate based on where your oil has come from. We'll all feel the pain should this become drawn out, whether our oil comes the US, Norway, Libya or the Netherlands. Any that we might have had from the Persiian Gulf, can be waved goodbye, as they'll hang onto it for themselves.

I do however believe that there's something remarkably inspiring about the irrepressibility of the human spirit. History, and sadly only recently, whilst filled with some of the worst atrocities that mankind has endured, is also filled with courage and hope at some of life's darkest moments.

The battle of Gettysburg and the key battle of "Little round top", when a Captain named Joshua Chamberlain (a school teacher from Maine), ordered his men, who, having run out of ammunition, to fix bayonets and charge the confederate forces, the enemy scattered at the sight of brave men charging with courage with not a bullet between them. History shows that this was a key turning point in The American Civil War.

Dunkirk and the rescue of 250,000 stranded men, the fall of the Iron curtain, William Wilberforce and his 50 yr long battle to end the slave trade. I could go on...

The ability of humans to find a way through and make the world a better place never ceases to inspire me. I hope and trust that what the world is currently witnessing may also bring about that courage & hope that bring lasting change for the good.

A few of my thoughts for what they're worth. I think this is going to get worse before it gets better. The price of crude oil is rising again, the straits of hormuz are critical to what happens down stream of the Iran conflict.

China & Japan Etal, import large amounts of crude oil, which has to go through the hormuz strait. China have already suspended exports of petrol & diesel. This may quickly escalate into fuel shortages worldwide and see oil breach 100 dollars a barrel.

There really is zero visibility as to how long this may continue. I think the US & Israel may destroy Iran's nuclear and missle capability, regime change however, is a very different matter. It's laughable that Trump thinks he will be able to have a say in who the next Iranian supreme leader will be.

The markets are behaving very nervously right now, and understandably so. But add into the mix how dominant, algorithmic trading has become (somewhere between 60% - 70% of all stock market trades) it's little wonder we're seeing the yo - yoing of stocks the way we are.

Caroline Leavitt got visibly rattled yesterday whilst taking questions from the press, little wonder when you're trying to defend the indefensible. The stress behind the scenes at the Whitehouse must be awful, although it's of Trump's own doing.

I think the best we can hope for is an early cease fire, and that some very wise leaders are able to come together and pull this mess back from the brink of the abyss, which is what we're currently staring into 😔