Member Info for Stayingpatient

You think it's going to drop to 140p then @bilboburgler ?

Yes, I understand your thinking @jakeyork. I've done the same this morning. I'd have made more selling last week or even yesterday. But I'm still £60 k up on what I invested in April, all tax free in my ISA & SIPP.

I'm intending to start drawing my pension next year so am paying much more attention to my gut intuition, as it's served me well over 40 years of investing.

I may well buy back into ITM, but given the fall over the last week despite the good news and inclusion in the MSCI UK SMALLER COMPANIES INDEX, I'm going to take a breather and see where things go from here. If the SP bounces back tomorrow or next week, that'd be great. As it is, I take a fairly philosophical approach when it comes to investing.

I don't worry about "paper losses" I'm only concerned about what profit I've made when I hit the sell button.

All the best everyone 👍

Well, there's the £1 million uncrossing trade, but it was shown as a sell.

I find both the principle and practice of short selling utterly repellent and here's why:

It violates fundamental principles of property and securities law. Short selling is the practice of borrowing shares to sell them with the expectation of buying them back later at a lower price to pocket the difference.

The Moral Case: Profit from Harm. The core moral argument against short selling is that it creates a perverse financial incentive where individuals profit exclusively from the failure and distress of others. Anti-Social Incentives: Short sellers maximize their utility when a company lays off workers, defaults on debts, or goes bankrupt. Violation of Kantian Ethics: Investors treat a company and its employees purely as a means to a financial end, rather than as entities with intrinsic value. Corrosive Market Psychology: It shifts the cultural focus of investing from collaborative wealth creation to predatory financial extraction.

The Ethical Case: Market Manipulation and Destructive Asymmetry From an ethical standpoint, short selling introduces toxic dynamics that distort fair market mechanisms and harm innocent stakeholders."Short and Distort" Campaigns: Short sellers often publish aggressive, biased negative research to actively drive down a stock price, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. Asymmetrical Risk Transference: Predatory short campaigns destroy retirement funds and retail investments while the short seller faces capped risk but infinite systemic damage.Capital Misallocation: Artificially depressed stock prices increase a target company’s cost of capital, preventing legitimate businesses from funding research, development, and hiring.

The Legal Case: Market Integrity and Property Rights. The legal arguments for outlawing short selling center on the distortion of ownership rights, systemic loopholes, and statutory definitions of market manipulation.

Violation of Property Rights: Borrowing and selling an asset multiple times creates "phantom shares," diluting the voting power and economic value of legitimate, long-term property holders. Naked Short Selling Loopholes: Despite regulatory bans, systemic settlement delays allow traders to sell shares they do not actually possess, which constitutes a form of legalised counterfeiting.I

nherent Market Manipulation: Traditional securities laws require markets to be free and fair; short selling deliberately introduces artificial downward supply pressure to manipulate price discovery.

Rant over!

@Birdsew I knew what you meant 👍

I'm still learning about ITM’S SP movements. Some of them seem grounded in stock market logic, at other times not. With the number of shares still to be bought back by Helikon & Voleon, it seem to me, that, rather than letting the SP continue to rise as the buying pressure builds, the MM's are dropping the bid at certain times of the day, in order to accumulate shares that are then bundled into an uncrossing trade buy, at the close of business. A somewhat axiomatic statement, I appreciate. Thoughts anyone.

Yes, the FID is targeted for December 2026 according to ITM’S own news release.

This is great news in and of itself, but as already mentioned here, the potential revenue for ITM from this partnership is massive.

Also, so many of the larger and decent size purchases over the last couple of days have been discretionary and not automated. A small but not insignificant feature in the trading landscape.

Of the £690,000,000 Issued ITM shares, there's currently around £387,000,000 shares in the market, that are classed as "free floating", that is, available to be bought and sold.

Good to see BLOOM & PLUG back up today. Looking forward to this coming season of positive news releases, to move us from a period of consolidation to the next upward trend...patience, it will come 😀

ITM is up 1.91% on Tradegate this morning 👍

@Seaangler You're correct, but I didn't say that the SP had risen 27%, I said I was up 27%...there's a difference. But yes, a 27% rise in the SP this coming week would be most welcome.

You raise a good question as to the admission criteria for inclusion in the FTSE GEIS Europe Index, that's one to look into 👍

It seems that some here were thrown a little by yesterday's action. Indeed, as some have already said, it was as if there were two markets operating.

Being a born optimist, I'm unfazed with yesterday's decline, why?, because inspite of it, I'm still up 27% on the week and more than 100% up from when i invested in April...glass half full I guess.

I'm focused on what's to come. Many of us have become quite familiar with why ITM is a great stock market play, especially for where the world find's itself at this moment in history. Here's a few reasons to remain optimistic 😊.

ITM Power shares are primed for a potential rebound on Monday because the sharp 7.07% drop on Friday to 194.40p was largely driven by localized index tracking rebalancing rather than a shift in company fundamentals. The structural and technical bull case for ITM Power plc points toward a rapid recovery on Monday based on several key drivers:

1. Technical Rebound from Index Inclusion Anomalies. The MSCI Small Cap Effect: ITM Power entered the MSCI UK Small Cap Index at the end of May. The heavy trading volume on Friday (27.58 million shares traded) was predominantly institutional tracker funds absorbing massive blocks of shares right at the closing bell. Short-Seller Exiting: Public forum tracking and order history indicate that heavy institutional short sellers like Helikon used this forced tracker liquidity to heavily cover or exit short positions, artificially depressing the intraday price to buy back shares cheaply. With the structural index rebalancing concluded, this short distortion will evaporate on Monday morning.

2. Upgraded Institutional Growth ProfilesMassive Financial Guidance Boosts: Earlier this year, ITM Power raised its FY26 full-year revenue outlook by 11% to between £40 million and £43 million. This rapid transformation has triggered heavy broker upgrades, including Morgan Stanley raising its price target to 170p and establishing a 300p bull-case target, while Jefferies updated their forecast modeling to buy ratings.

3. Highly Capitalised Balance SheetZero Dilution Fear: ITM possesses £215 million in net cash, covering five times their current annual cash burn rate. Government backing: They secured an £86.5 million state investment package, which includes a direct £40 million equity stake from Great British Energy alongside a £46.5 million grant to manufacture their automated 1GW Chronos stack line.

4. Expanding Sovereign & Defence Pipelines. The Rheinmetall Security Play: ITM’s recent strategic joint alliance with German defence powerhouse Rheinmetall AG for the Giga PtX project embeds them directly into sovereign NATO energy infrastructure. With persistent geopolitical risk across Europe, decentralised green hydrogen generation has pivoted into a national security priority.

@Digitalis This might shed some light for you:

Understanding the Real Index Rebalance Mechanics.

1. Passive Funds Buy at the Closing Cross Index funds do not buy gradually over two weeks. To achieve near-zero tracking error, passive funds must buy their shares at the exact closing price on the effective date (traditionally via the Closing Auction or "Closing Cross" at 4:30 PM). If they buy at 194.4p two weeks early, and the stock closes at 210p on implementation day, the fund manager has failed their mandate.

2. What Market Makers Actually Do (The Real Strategy) Your intuition about MMs smoothing out the price volatility is spot on, but the financial mechanism is different:The Risk Trade: MMs know index funds must buy massive volume at the closing price. Pre-hedging: MMs gradually buy shares over the two weeks between the announcement and effective date, accumulating inventory. The Closing Auction Match: At the closing auction today, the MMs sell this accumulated inventory directly to the index funds. The Profit Margin: MMs profit not from a pre-arranged fixed price, but by buying the shares over the last two weeks at an average price lower than what they predict the final closing auction price will be.

3. Active Traders and Arbitrageurs Drive the Mid-Period Volume. The rise from 157.4p to 219.8p you noticed was driven by active hedge funds and algorithmic traders front-running the index funds. They buy early to drive the price up, planning to dump their shares onto the passive index funds at the absolute peak during the closing auction. Step-by-Step Timeline of an MSCI Inclusion[May 12: Announcement] -> [May 13 to Effective Date] -> [Effective Date: Closing Auction]

MSCI names ITM. Hedge funds front-run. Passive funds buy millions

MMs quietly accumulate. of shares in a 5-minute window.

The Announcement (May 12): MSCI announces ITM Power is being added.The Accumulation Phase: MMs and arbitrageurs buy shares daily. This structured, competitive buying creates the "controlled fashion" price creep you observed.The Closing Cross (Today): A massive spike in volume occurs in the final minutes of trading. The index funds legally place their massive market orders, and the MMs cleanly fill them using the inventory they spent two weeks building.Crucial Blind Spots to ConsiderThe "Reversal" Effect: Because arbitrageurs pump the price up ahead of the inclusion, stocks added to indices frequently experience a short-term sell-off after the effective date. The forced buying is over, leaving a temporary demand vacuum.Liquidity Inversion: The closing auction on index rebalance days often sees more volume trade in 5 minutes than the stock usually sees in two weeks. This deep liquidity prevents the "solar storm to £10" scenario you described.

Cheers 👍

With this afternoon's action, all in all, we may see a "gap up" opening on Monday. It's been a very good week, even with no news. Plenty to come though. Have a great weekend all 👍

OK, thanks 👍

@Eastwood do you have a live data feed?

The auction starts now until 4:35pm. There's somewhere between 35 - 40 million shares to be bought by the index trackers. From what I understand, they should show as an UT BUY.

Indeed, things could get wild in the closing auction this afternoon.

ITM now up 4.82% on Tradegate = £2.22 SP 👍

Here's a bit of A.I. on how tomorrow's inclusion to the index, might affect the share price. Also, the effect on the availability of ITM shares & how the company will be further bolstered going forward.

The admission of ITM Power (ITM) into the MSCI United Kingdom Small Cap Index after the close of business tomorrow will generate a temporary surge in trading volume and a "forced" mechanics-driven buying spike, though the direct immediate impact on the share price may see a short-term peak or reversal.Because the index inclusion was formally announced on May 13, much of the positive price appreciation has already been priced in by speculative traders.The explicit breakdown of the mechanical, immediate, and long-term effects on ITM’s stock includes the following layers of impact:

1. The Mechanical Closing Spike (Tomorrow's Close)Forced Passive Inflows: Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual funds that rigidly track the MSCI Small Cap Index are legally mandated to replicate the index exactly. They cannot buy early without incurring tracking errors.The "MOC" Order Wave: These passive trackers will execute massive "Market-on-Close" (MOC) buy orders in the final minutes of tomorrow's trading session (the closing auction).Estimated Volume: Market estimates indicate this rebalancing will trigger roughly $25 million to $30 million of theoretical passive buying. Expect a massive spike in trading volume right at the closing bell.

2. Immediate Share Price Reaction (The "Index Effect")Short-Term Peak or Reversal: Historically, the underlying stock price rallies between the announcement date and the effective date due to arbitrageurs buying ahead of the funds. Right at or immediately following the close of the effective date, these arbitrageurs sell their shares to the passive funds to lock in profits.Price Direction: Consequently, while the closing cross tomorrow will see high volume, the share price itself may spike temporarily, followed by a modest pullback or "return reversal" early next week as the speculative buying pressure cools down.

3. Structural, Long-Term Benefits Enhanced Liquidity Floor: Moving forward, ITM benefits from a permanently higher baseline of institutional demand. Passive funds will now hold a fixed percentage of ITM’s free float, effectively locking those shares up and reducing overall market float.Institutional Visibility: Inclusion acts as a quality stamp. Many global institutional managers use MSCI indices as a baseline screening tool, which will drive active fund coverage and broader analyst attention over the coming months. Summary of Co-Converging FactorsIt is crucial to note that this index event does not happen in a vacuum. ITM’s share price has experienced massive momentum recently, heavily supported by fundamental developments. Specifically, the UK government’s recent confirmation of a £46.5 million grant for the Chronos electrolyser production line removed a major downside risk overhang.