Member Info for Stayingpatient

ITM currently trading + 5.57% on the US market.

It looks like we might have got caught in it's slipstream! 👍

Greetings all on this sunny Monday, ITM is up 7.7% in early trading on the US market.

A.i. search came up with some interesting information:

The case for ITM Power (LSE: ITM) achieving share growth similar to the historic turnaround of Rolls-Royce (LSE: RR.) rests on its transition from a speculative technology play to a strategically vital industrial manufacturer backed by the UK government. Just as Rolls-Royce shares surged 10-fold following a 2021 government investment in its Small Modular Reactor (SMR) programme, ITM Power is currently undergoing a similar "re-rating" driven by sovereign backing and large-scale commercial contracts.

1. Direct Government Backing & Strategic Re-rating

The strongest parallel to the Rolls-Royce recovery is the recent £86.5 million investment package from the UK government and Great British Energy.

Equity Stake: GB Energy has taken a 10.4% ownership stake in ITM Power, signaling that green hydrogen is now viewed as a "strategic" national asset.

Market Sentiment: Historically, such backing flips the narrative from a "loss-making venture" to a "critical infrastructure provider," often triggering massive share price gains before profits even materialise.

2. High-Growth Revenue and Record Backlog

While Rolls-Royce’s growth was fueled by profit recovery, ITM Power’s current momentum is driven by explosive revenue projections and order fulfilment.

Revenue Projections: Analysts expect revenue to jump 145% to £56.3m for the year ending April 2026.

Order Backlog: ITM reports a growing order backlog of £152 million, with 71% of these being profitable contracts rather than speculative pilots.

Market Outperformance: ITM's revenue is forecast to grow at 31.7% per year, significantly faster than the 4.5% average for the wider UK market.

3. Expansion into High-Value Sectors (Defence & AI)

Similar to how Rolls-Royce pivoted to power data centres and defence, ITM is diversifying its use cases.

Defence Partnership: A landmark deal with Rheinmetall AG aims to build a Europe-wide synthetic fuel network for NATO armed forces.

Industrial Scale: The new ALPHA 50 hydrogen plant is a standardized 50 MW system designed for global deployment, moving the company away from bespoke, high-risk projects toward scalable manufacturing.

4. Technical Recovery Indicators

Share Performance: ITM shares rose 120% year-to-date by mid-2025 and surged another 86% in a single week in April 2026 following major contract wins.

Valuation Inflexion: After a period of severe dilution and "valuation concerns" in 2022, the company has stabilized its cash position (approx. £197.8 million) and streamlined its product line to improve execution reliability.

Iran has closed the strait of hormuz again. Not good atall.

Uncrossing trades are sometimes misunderstood. The following explanation (link below) may help. If a short position was being closed, it would be shown as a purchase. That's how short selling operates. The "investor" effectively borrows stock that they don't own, in order to be able to sell it. At some point they then have to buy it back to close out their position.

Under certain circumstances, it can be illgal to short sell a stock and not cover your position with a put option, thereby removing the possibility of an unlimited loss.

Hedge funds and possibly other large investment institutions, however, are not required to do this. I've never agreed in principle with short selling. Although, it seems in ITM's case, shareholders may benefit from several large investment institutions having done just that. Watch this space.

https://www.shiftingshares.com/what-is-an-uncrossing-trade/#:~:text=How%20is%20the%20uncrossing%20trade,105p%20with%2010%2C000%20shares%20matched.

ITMPF - OTC, trading in US, up 56% this afternoon

Hi all, I've been watching this share since 2022. You know it's story...I bought in with my ISA and SIPP on Tuesday this week for 92p & 93p. Well what can I say, could this be the next Rolls Royce? I bought into RR in 2023 at £1.50, we know what happened next! I'm looking forward to the journey. Have a great weekend all 👍

There's typos in their comms. It says 155p to 150p. That should read 1550p to 1500p. An 18% uplift from 1278p, would be 1508p.

I hope everyone had a good Easter break.

It was 2021 when the ITM SP was at a high of £6.40, it subsequently crashed by 96%. It also trades on the AIM, where stocks can have a high attrition rate.

The funding announced by GB Energy and DESNZ, will or course be very welcome. However, ITM have been making large losses despite having been around for over 25 years.

They've been dogged with various problems, such as unprofitable contracts, poor transition from R&D to a scalable manufacturing model and having to pay millions in compensation following a commercial dispute.

They're in the green energy sector, where there's a huge "tug of war" going on between the net zero and fossil fuel advocates. The regulations are onerous and consequently expensive to implement, for any company involved in the green hydrogen business.

The SP has popped today on the funding news, however, without a robust business plan to address and reverse the loss making, ITM may not deliver the desired outcomes within the necessary time scales. Simply because the government have written a sizeable cheque, doesn't equate to a business turn around.

There may of course, have been requirements placed on ITM as a condition of the funding. It would be foolish not to have done that. It seems that whilst additional sources of green energy are needed, this is one to watch very carefully before jumping in..."caveat emptor"

Here's a reminder of RR's position in the SMR sector. Courtesy of A.I.

https://share.google/aimode/IqeGDhc3Dm3jgQhhy

@Investerintheknow, Good for you. As I've said recently, each to his own, in deciding the right course of action. I think sitting this out in cash is a prudent move. Like you, I can't be certain as to how much further RR may or may not drop, but it consolidates profits made & allows time to reflect & observe everything that's unfolding.

Hopefully, we'll be back in once this sorry episode in the world's history is over.

Have a great weekend! The sunshine 🌞 is out in The Lake District this afternoon.

P.S. Mine's a pint of mild 😉

@Investerintheknow glad you liked it 😉

Morning Rollers, my mind was taken back to this sketch from Harry Enfield & Chums. The type of couple you dread meeting!

https://youtu.be/U8Kum8OUTuk?si=dnYSY7rKsjyqDzuQ

The global markets are in a heightened state of anxiety just now, caught in a vortex of uncertainty.

Every business on the planet needs energy for it to run. In RR's case, and many others, massive amounts of energy are needed.

The lack of visibility regarding when global energy security will stabilize is to a very large extent, what's causing the whipsaw SP movements. The SP drop isn't commensurate with where RR business is in it's business trajectory.

It's axiomatic, but in order for "business as usual" to resume, then the world needs to be certain that it's energy supply and production can continue unimpeded.

The world needs an ever increasing amount of energy, especially when you consider the number of A.I. data centres that are being built, and that an A.I. Web search uses 10 x the amount of energy that a normal Web search does.

Developing economies needs massive amounts of energy to grow as they need to. It's going to be a combination of fossil fuels and clean energy that achieve this for some time to come.

So, once energy security is restored, the world can breathe a little easier. The question is, when will this happen. No-one knows and that's the rub.

RR is a great business with a great future ahead, and at some point, I'll buy back in...just not yet.

LLP, yes, you're correct around 175 million barrels of oil are stored in tankers near Singspore & Malaysia. Typo: on my behalf. I typed reserves, it should have read exports 👍

It does both. It stores around 30 million barrels of oil, aswell as it being it's oil dispatch site. Around 90% of Iran's oil exports flow through Kharg.

The recent reports on the media of a posdible peace deal, seem to be somewhat too good to be true. I hope that the end of the war is imminent. However, it may be that the US is hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst. Two US naval ships, the USS GERALD FORD & THE USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN are in the region, with around 50,000 US troops. There's also around 2500 US marines in the region with more on the way. As many here will be aware, the Pentagon have also put around 3000 additional troops on notice to deploy to Iran.

One possibility is that the Island of Kharg is going to be targeted. This holds 90% of Iran's oil reserves. If the US secured this strategic target, then it would put Iran in a "financial choke hold", preventing it from exporting it's largest source of revenue.

There may also be an attempt to secure the strait of hormuz, but that is such a massive task logistically. If this was achieved, it places a requirement for this to be maintained for an indefinite period as it gulf region will need to keep it's oil shipments flowing.

There are still a significant number of unknown factors to this military dichotomy, that make it so difficult to know how this will play out.

Whilst a an end to the conflict is technically possible, given the magnitude of the damage inflicted on Iran by the US & Israel, it may well have simply hardened the IRGC's resolve to continue fighting.

There are already parallels being drawn with Afghanistan. The Russians had to give up their fight with them as did the US in recent times.

Alarmingly, I read recently, that WHO are preparing teams for a "nuclear incident in Iran". Quite what that really means is unclear, but it's very concerning, none the less.

Tehran have now rejected the US peace plan...

@Investerintheknow ...Although Yorkshire isn't bad either 😉

I've lived in The Lake District since 1970 & there's nowhere like it 👍