Member Info for Starchild

According to a Forbes article on 28/07/18 by Robert Rapier, the top 5 PROVEN reserves by oil majors:
Exxon Mobil Corporation - 2.940 billion barrels
ConocoPhillips - 1.974 billion barrels
Chevron Corporation 1.916 billion barrels
EOG Resources, Inc. 1.808 billion barrels
BP p.l.c. 1.669 billion barrels

BPC has potential total perspectivity using the STOIIP model of 28.6bboe (current licensed blocks), with possibly 25% recoverable. This equates to over 7bboe. (refer to Zac's 4/2/20 presentation on BPC website). If only a third of this eventually gets extracted (2.3bboe) after many years, BPC could be in top 5 majors for oil reserves, although likely aquired by a major long before then.

IMHO, regardless of the oil price today, despite OPEC and Russia disagreeing on cutting production on 6/3/20, the potential is huge. Furthermore, even though the coronavirus is causing havoc to people's lives today until perhaps the end of 2020, a vaccine will be perfected and life should get back to normal.

Propsect, I think you were right about West Saturn. Matthew Donovan's article in Connect Upstream Insight 30/1/20 states that the ship is having its 5 year survey and the one BPC will likely use. See below. BTW according to 4th qtr 2019 Seadrill 2019 accounts' Fleet status report, West Saturn's twin ship charge out rate for 2020 is $202,000/day.

'Bahamas Petroleum Company plans to drill Perseverance #1, its initial exploration well in 518 m (1,700 ft) of water offshore The Bahamas, in the near future, with results from the well expected in the second quarter of 2020. The well is to be drilled with a Seadrill offshore rig.

In late January 2020, the company stated that it had been working to finalize the process of rig selection and contracting with Seadrill, with a definitive contract expected to be finalized in the coming weeks.

While the specific rig has not been named, Bahamas Petroleum stated that physical inspection of the proposed rig would occur shortly while it is in port for class certification. This indicates that the rig is likely Seadrill drillship West Saturn, a 10,000-ft unit that is currently in the yard in Trinidad undergoing its five-year Special Periodic Survey.'

Spare a thought to the poor folks on this LSE forum who invested heavily on Tullow Oil (TLW). 20 years ago TLW was an explorer similar to BPC. After a few years the share price hit £15 on proven reserves and potential reserves that are less than BPC's prospects around the Bahamas. TLW is trading today at 27p. If BPC strikes oil in June, and shares hit 30-50p, BPC will have a market cap 200-300% more than TLW today. I posted this to show the potential under-value of BPC today.

Interesting facts about BPC and where it is today

1. In April 2010 when BPC floated on the UK AIM market there were 860,000,000 shares.
2. Oil was at c$100 barrel when BPC peaked at 25.697p intraday 4th Feb 2011.
3. This gave BPC a market cap of £220m/(@1.60=) $350m in Feb 2011. This was equivalent to 10.2p based on todays 2.1 billion+ shares.
4. On 9 Aug 2018, an intraday share price high of 7.4446 was reached. Using round figures of 2.1 billion BPC shares, this made the market cap on this day £160m/$210m. Oil price was $70.
5. However the peak 25p 2011 share price and $350m market cap was before EA approval, before any sign of oil and prior to BPC exploration having seriously began.

Other interesting points:
6. AIM companies managed outside UK, HQ'd on Isle of Mann, pay no corporation tax
7. BPC royalties to Bahamas if they find oil is between 12.5% for 75,000 barrels per day to a peak of 25% for 350,000 barrels per day or more.

Despite the coronavirus influenced low oil price and BPC's need for survival cash and further exploration investment if the well is dry, Farm in options could still be on the cards. Perhaps the BOD has already been offered options in an MOU, in the last few months, but on PUNITIVE terms. What has changed is the EA and BPC's intent to go it alone. As such it has made the BOD's negotiating position stronger.

Bottom line: If I was an oil major I would seriously consider the potential 10bb oil (if 1bb is found by June 2020) and do a farm in ASAP. A farm in for 5 oil exploration wells and 5 years cashflow for BPC is PETTY CASH to an oil major.

My side message to day traders: IMHU it's a free world to trade daily, weekly or hourly. But be careful not to lose a huge opportunity if a very positive RNS hits the day after you sold to make a 50 pips profit.

Good luck all.

I agree with Bonum 'small [share price] moves are irrelevant to the big picture.' As at 1445 GMT today 6.5m shares traded vs 20-70m per day last few days. I believe mostly day traders today . Those that sold today may regret doing so if postive RNS is issued friday.

I respectfully disagree. The BoD of Tesco or Exxon probably not, although they get junior staff or 3rd parties to do so as part of overall feedback to the BoDs for reputational reasons. This is a fact. Smaller market caps do direclty or via proxy. Don't you ever google your name or that of your company (assuming you own a company) and are curious)?

The BCP BoD alomost certainly read these posts. I've advised public companies for years, and be assured someone does, to gauge one part of a metric in shareholder market sentiment. If the members of the BoD ever seek entertainment on a sunday afternoon while having a few beers over a Barbie, they probably read the BPC ADVFN posts of 'specialist' the muppet hater, self proclaimed share strategist Messiah divine entity.

Good article Robbla. Thanks. A lot has happened since 2012 with a lot more high tech exploration tools. The potential is even greater although oil price lower.

Day traders have got be very careful the next few days based on expectations of positive RNS. Either because they sold stock,just before there is a potential surge in the price, or if they go short at the wrong time. I am surprised the market has not factored in the ALMOST mathamatical certainty of the upward price correction based on the expected RNS(s). Up to 8.5p is predicted by house broker Shore Capital's analyst Craig Howie. Even if this figure is a peak until the result of the spud is known in June share price could hover in the 6-8p range for several weeks. More if there is a farm-in announced.

Probably,.... 'BPC has signed an agreement for the Spud in April. Ship is on its way.'
Possibly,.... 'BPC has exected a contract with a farm-in partner. The details are...'
Unlikley for next week (!),.... 'BPC has agreed, subject to shareholder approval, to accept a price of £x (in Exxon shares), for a merger with Exxon'

The 20/2/20 RNS is interesting on three points.
1. The CLN conditions need to be met by 9/3. Assuming they are, only then can drilling suppliers be given the green light to start, otherwise they are at risk of not being paid.
2. The Bahamas fund shareholders will be able to trade 'on or around' 12/3. If you were one of these shareholders and paid 2p, with the live price being substantially higher, it may be tempting to make a quick buck. Some may do so, however the market will know this and their shares will be bought quickly. And I will join the queue.
3. The CLN makes provision for a BPC buyout (or farm in) involving more than 50% of it's stock.

Conclusion: I have full confidence in the BoD. In my opinion the timing of points 1 and 2 is because the BoD are pre-empting some very positive RNS news flow in the same week, or even tomorrow or friday.

ignore my last post re Fed rate drop USA. News feed arrived just as my fat finger hit the key bord.

What rate drop are you refering to ? Cable, FTSE, DOW, BPC, interest rates UK / USA?

Four RNS messages that would create impact to BPC share price:

1. 'BPC has signed the deal for the April spud' (Share impact: Shore Capital Analyst prediction up to 8.5p)
2. 'The drilling ship has arrived in situ last night, and started drilling this morning at midday GMT'. (Share impact: reaffirm)
3. 'A Farm-our agreement has been signed with [oil major]. All BPC debts will be paid in 30 days including the CLN executed last year. BPC now has a 5 year budget to drill in its licensed blocks and 5 years day to day activities' cashflow for the company'. (Share impact: Excellent)
4. 'Greta Thunburg has been appointed to the BPC Board as a non-exec director.' (Share impact: initially negative until the market realises oil/gas explorers are not to blame for pollution or CO2. Oil can be refined to produce the base materials for plastics used in solar panels, Tesla cars and other alternative energy sources).

There are no legal implications for that question mark. Legally it means nothing. But why is there yet not there in similar paragraphs/points within the same presentation. I have not and am not making investment choices based on it, I merely thought it would be good to share it with others.

Using occam's razor, why was the '?' there

What I found interesting was the question mark ('?') in the slide on page 13 of the 20/2/20 London presentation, point 7!
I belive it was a subliminal slip by the author, because a lot of negotiating is happening with potential farm-in partners behind closed doors.

Only6greens: What you wrote about hunger puts everything into perpective.

Interesting facts about BPC and where it is today

1. In April 2010 when BPC floated on the UK AIM market there were 860,000,000 shares.
2. Oil was at c$100 barrel when BPC peaked at 25.697p intraday 4th Feb 2011.
3. This gave BPC a market cap of £220m/(@1.60=) $350m in Feb 2011. This was equivalent to 10.2p based on todays 2.1 billion+ shares.
4. On 9 Aug 2018, an intraday share price high of 7.4446 was reached. Using round figures of 2.1 billion BPC shares, this made the market cap on this day £160m/$210m. Oil price was $70.
5. However the peak 25p 2011 share price and $350m market cap was before EA approval, before any sign of oil and prior to BPC exploration having seriously began.

Other interesting points:
6. AIM companies managed outside UK, HQ'd on Isle of Mann, pay no corporation tax
7. BPC royalties to Bahamas if they find oil is between 12.5% for 75,000 barrels per day to a peak of 25% for 350,000 barrels per day or more

Despite the coronavirus influenced low oil price and BPC's need for survival cash and further exploration investment if the well is dry, Farm in options could still be on the cards. Perhaps the BOD has already been offered options in an MOU, in the last few months, but on PUNITIVE terms. What has changed is the EA and BPC's intent to go it alone. As such it has made the BOD's negotiating position stronger.

Bottom line: If I was an oil major I would seriously consider the potential 10bb oil (id 1b is found by June) and do a farm in ASAP. A farm in for 5 oil exploration wells and 5 years cashflow for BPC is PETTY CASH to an oil major.

BPC pre-market: no one wants to sell yet for less than 4.3p