Member Info for Starchild

Not sure what you mean by 'drilling starting soon'. It was due in April but put back to 4th qtr 2020 due to Covid-19 logistics

ps to my previous RNS post: Due to sub 2p SP offer price, there was a slight concern the Bahamas Fund were trying to wiggle out of the deal, initially on tech grounds, eventually on force majeure ones. They have not and money is in BPC's bank account. If some players in the market shares my vibe, maybe we are looking at a 1.7p+ high today. Regardless of POO and Covid-19. But maybe not.

Linton, I agree with you. There was a slight concern CLN facilitator(s) would use the sub 2p SP as an excuse to withdraw facility. This hasn't happened. Instead by using their SP options, they will get additional shares at a discounted bargain price next week. Very small dilution to our shares. It is also good government/BPC have almost done a deal re outstanding issues. This implies BPC's notice of extending drilling cut-off of 31/12/20 (if needed) has been accepted by Gov as a force majeure event.

Findme, your email to BPC and the official response was good, however it is not as simple as that. A Force Majure event can and likely will trigger an extension to the 31/12/20 drill deadline by the BGov. If push came to shove BPC will likely argue that it is not limited to the few months the original event (Bahamas on lock down until back to normal) took place. There would be plausable legal arguments that the knock on affect of the original FM event could last more than a year and trigger an overall FM. If you owned a chain of dog grooming salons and cannot afford to pay rent, it is an FM event (by law you cannot trade), however it may take 2 years for you to catch up with the arrears after the salons were allowed to re-open.

The ultimate insider trading is when you are a State. The Bank of England or Fed could buy/sell currency just before an interest rate is announced. Saudi buying into EU oil majors implies to me (not the article) a deal has already been done on oil prices. This will help BPC SP get back into the 2p range as I predicted. see

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/saudi-wealth-fund-builds-stakes-in-european-energy-giants-1.1419547

Shami. Your research into hurricane risks was very good. How about spud date moved to November, oil found in December, farm-in partners publicly fight each other to get into the action, SP surges to £1, we all spend Christmas in the Bahamas at a BPC sponsored week long shareholders' fancy dress party. I propose Togas, however we can vote on this nearer the time, based on shareholding.

Yesterday, 88E the oil explorer issued an RNS with the headline...'Charlie-1 Confirms Large Condensate Discovery in Torok Formation.' Yet its SP went down 70% because they had to plug and abandon the well for various risk reasons including Covid-19, Alaskan ice melting could strand their rig, and its JV partner pulling out.

Up until a few weeks ago the intent was for BPC to be drilling about now. It was very wise of the board to move spud date to 4th quarter otherwise a similar situation could have arose, with an RNS stating, 'hi guys, we found some oil, need more time to investigate but due to Covid-19 and hurricane season, we'll plug and abandon. Sorry but s++t happens.'

What's a few months delay in the overall picture? Delay will give time for stability re Covid-19, POO, and investor appetite. Even better if the Bahamas gov becomes a formal stakeholder by then in return for $$$, and BPC gets more exclusive exploration acreage for 10 years.

In my opinion SP lower because 60 million+ partial CLN conversion shares will be on the market converted at 1.28p in the morning. Although it will be totally daft for BPC's lender to liquidate them in one go, some day traders are possibly hedging their bets. On the other hand, if Opec++ do a deal on 9th, and POO back in $40s next week, this will help SP, especially if a positive (or at least not negative) RNS comes out anyday as well.

Valid point Tiburn and it makes perfect logical sense to connect a pipe to Cuba , however I doubt eventual farm-in partner will want to do this if they have any connections with the USA for trade. Every major and super major does. Otherwise the US Gov will use a two Ronnies saying...'It's a goodbye from me and goodbye from him'.

Interesting article below from 2017 when Cuba was touting for investment to exploit its onshore and offshore oil prospects. In waters similar to BPC's planned well, the author believies it would cost between $20-$35/boe to extract. I'm not sure if this includes capital provision for infrastructre as part of the amoratised cost per barrel as I havn't done a deep dive (because I am not a total nerd). Even though labor costs would be higher for BPC compared to Cuba, I don't think this is a major cost factor in manning a producing well. Bottom line: BPC/BG could make a decent profit even at $50 POO, although what happens in 5 years is impossible to predict. see https://www.researchgate.net/publication/313790584_Cuba's_Oil_Due_for_Development

Veteran, It is not 'death spiral funding.' The CLNs make perfect sense. I'd rather have a convertable loan for future payment than a farm-in at punitive rates now.

The share dilution is negligible if you take today's conversion and the one on 14 April also stated in RNS. Extra 100m shares is approx 4%. On par with a Scrip issue in new shares to pay an annual dividend for a FTSE company.

According to RNS, Investor converted some shares. He/they got a very deal at 1.28p, which could soar in future

Gatto, re your comment 'How can a share be down 400% from it's highs, that's a new one for me!',........... short BPC as much as you like. It's your choice to talk the SP down, but some friendly advice.....be careful not to get hurt financially.

hi Greenie, please translate your last post into English for us mortals.

Brent has surged 25% today on expectations of a deal with ket players Saudi and or Russia and or USA Shale (via Fed or Texas chaps). If deal done and POO over $35, BPC stock could jump into the 2p range despite Covid-19 or any RNS. You guys know me, I'm not talking up the SP to make a quick buck as a would be day trader. I've bought more.

Correction to my last post. It's very early in the morning where i live and I havent had the madatory 3 cups of coffee......................I meant to type 'oligarchs' not oligarths. The latter sounds like an 8 legged super intelligent alien being on planet Zob, in a galaxy far far away.

Breaking news from Reuters re Trump/Putin call re POO
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Relief-On-The-Horizon-Trump-And-Putin-Discuss-Oil-Markets.html

It wouldn't surprise me if in return, Russia will leverage getting the USA to remove some of its sanctions. However similar to the 1962 Cuban Crisis (when USA agreed to remove missiles from Turkey) this may happen at a later date. Although Putin is a strong man, the Oligarths have substantial influence in Russian policy and want POO stability.

I have a hunch Russia and Saudi will do a temporary POO deal (or at least a truce) this week to last until June Opec meeting, or potentially a Saudi/USA+ temp deal. To save face for both Saudi and Russia blinking first, Covid-19 demand destruction will be used as the excuse.

Alternatively, April 1st a key date when Saudi threatend to flood the market. POO will temporarily collapse assuming no USA Gov or Texas State intervention, and many shale producers destroyed, resulting in this....
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russias-Plan-To-Bankrupt-US-Shale-Could-Send-Oil-To-60.html

In my opinion BPC share price can't go much lower pending RNS news. However even though its intangible and real assets are much higher (2p-4.5p) than currently reflected in the SP, I believe subject to some geo-political POO deal this week (or positive RNS re CLN), and Covid-19 expectations being met, SP could substantially increase. But that's just my opinion.

JimiB, excellent find from the local press. The Bahamas is a non-aligned neutral country on the USA's doorstep that wishes to be friends with everyone. China has been extending its sphere of influence around the world with the new silk road initiative, which as yet hasn't extended past east of Africa. Hundreds of billions have been spent investing in foreign infrastructure for geo-political influence, local leverage and sov wealth ROI. China is also a net importer of oil and may fancy becoming an energy stakeholder in the region. Bahama's EEZ has a potentially oil rich area of 218,292 Km2. One company, BPC, has the exploration rights (actual and pending) to 10% of the Bahamas. The oil/gas wealth in the North Sea which is shared by several countries (predominatly UK and Norway), a number of super majors and many smaller energy players has an area of 575.000Km2. The Bahamas EEZ owned by a population of 400,000 is 40% the size of the whole north sea! BPC therefore has amazing potential. China's silk road initiative doesn't have a day traders mentality to try and make a few hundred bucks a day. Infrastructure is about longterm. It would also be a little cheeky, with the USA (and Russian influenced Cuba) nearby, if China extended its new silk road to the Bahamas.