Member Info for Starchild

Some positives:
1. The BG Peroleum Act 2016 gives the Minister responsible, a lot of leeway. It can be read in full here https://eh.gov.bs/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Petroleum-Act-2016.pdf for example, as I read it, (a) if BG becomes party to an agreement (clause 10.3) with BPC, the 25 block max exploration limit is waived and to a degree certain clauses imply the competitive bidding for blocks can be waived. (b) Futher Ministerial leeway exists in the NATIONAL INTEREST as stated in the Act cross referenced to the Regulations. Read them here http://extwprlegs1.fao.org/docs/pdf/bha169592.pdf

2. It could be argued, BG is already an 'equity' partner with BPC. Refer to https://www.bpcplc.com/our-operations/licences/ last FAQ point 14............................'The specific terms of the licence are confidential, but in the event of extraction of oil, the Act determines that the Company is to pay royalties at the rate detailed in the Act but increased to between 15% and 25% based upon the level of production. This effectively means the Government is an ‘equity’ holder in the licence.....'

3. It is very helpful, BPC's In-house Counsel JoBeth Coleby-Davis, is a BG State senator. I've checked her out. She appears to be a very bright girl with an excellent political and legal brain.

What does all the above potentially mean? BG could ....(a) increase BPC's exploration blocks, perhaps throughout the BG EEZ, (b) participate in funding (directly or indirectly). ......Especially during the perfect storm of COVID-19 and POO. The funds to drill two or three wells are tiny in the overall picture. The former is a tragedy affecting the Bahamian people's lives and economy. It will be great to give Bahamas folks some hope by investing in BPC to eventually strike oil in an extended exploration area. In my opinion, these events will substantially increase BPC's value, even before oil is found.

(Ps: I don't have a BPC fetish. The last few weeks I have had a lot of time on my hands, and to ease boredom and stay sane, BPC research has become a hobby )

My apols IK. Initial reaction to your theory that BG was behind some type of funding arrangement did not add up at the time. It is only when I theorised the legal and practical ways it could be done, as presented in my friday post, did i accept this was a possibility. Anyway, as you are Sicillian and I prefer eating fish than having them nailed to my front door, I hereby give you the credit. hugs. xxx

I have 2 theories
1. The Bahamas family owned lender could be being backed by a local Bank which in turn has got a Gov guarantee without the BPC board knowing. A guarantee such as this does not have to be publicly disclosed and anyway, it's for a realtive small amount. Think about this. BG wants the drill asap for many reasons, not least it needs funding due to COVID-19 and last year's island wide disaster. Even if the well is dry, by no means does this mean BPC will default or liquidate as there is a 3 year window for repayment and regrouping.

2. My second theory is the 'alternative partnering option' is the Gov is considering offering to partly nationalise BPC in return for some cash, exploration funding for more than one spud, and additional sea acreage. BG is not under EU laws. In fact it could fit in with local sentiment and make this decision under exisiting emergency laws. Refer to article from 2012 https://thenassauguardian.com/2012/04/26/we-must-nationalize-our-black-gold/

Either of these 2 theories, and they are theories, could be very good for BPC as the farm-in partner could be de-facto the Gov. If the 2nd theory is correct, The Bahamas respects international law, is not North Korea and would have to pay market value. It can't just takeover because of strategic national intrests, which oil is. And I am confident the BOD with its proven negotiating skills will get a great deal for shareholders.

smart move JT. I dont want to spook anything but it appears bottom was reached yesterday. Could creep up to 2p quickly but it may not. Of the 64 trades today, i estimate 60 were buys, despite being red. Refer to my explanation earlier

on main electronic exchanges Market Makers are automated systems using pre-defined algorithms when to change bid/ask price, shake the tree etc. However, specialists oversee these systems and manualy intervene based on live news and RNS.

mystery solved. If a buy is below mid-point SP, trading system assumes it is a sell. At this moment mid point is 1.3 and there and many people buying at 1.28. It generally only happens to shares with large spreads and low volumes, such as BPC.

Another way to tell (which i have used for other reasons) is if there are lots of 'sells', yet the MM is not buying at almost minimum bid price, or lowering the bid price.

Emergency G20 summit today (via video link) was called by Saudi Arabia to discuss Covid-19. I imagine it will be a little awkward as China, Russia and USA will be on the call together. I hope they make progress however will not hold my breath. It's hard enough doing a conf call with 20 people who like each other.

I'm pleased it aroused you

This is a thought experiment. If you have just got out of bed, please have a coffee first so you can focus.

Imagine a newly opened Las Vegas casino for a publicity stunt allowed bets on roulette giving the following odds: (I know they’re all currently closed, but pretend they are not)
1. Instead of a 2-1 pay-out it would give 10-1 on any column or 12 number block bet (eg 24-36) that won.
2. If your bet won, you would have the option to enrol for 3 years in a further bet using some or all of your winnings with the potential to earn even more
3. If you lost, you could let the bet roll, with a chance of at least winning back your original stake in a few years, perhaps more.
4. And it is the only casino in the world where its management get paid a percentage of punters’ winnings as a bonus in their pension fund. The more we win, the more they do.

However, to place this bet we must physically travel to Vegas, which today has various risk factors and upfront costs, assuming we are allowed in the USA.

In my thought experiment the Casino is the stock market, the wager is the BPC shares you own, the odds of winning reflects the probability of a successful oil find, the very generous pay-out reflects what could happen if oil is found. The almost lost bet reflects the collapse of the share price, which with patience could be recouped a few years later. The casino management are the BPC Board. The challenging journey is the price of oil, COVID-19 etc, which is challenging not impossible. (And the croupiers are the MMs who make tipping mandatory).

I don’t know the logic why casinos are so popular. To use one’s brain to wager on certain shares has the same risks yet potentially much much higher rewards. However it goes without saying, no one should risk more than they are preared to lose, even if the odds are very good.

Have a great day

Thanks Keith. I didn't realise the word that rhymes with 'itch' is considered profanity and auto-removed from my post. If using a similar platform i wonder how vet and pet forums function.

On a more serious note, things could be moving on the POO front. I believe stuff is going on behind closed doors and in phone calls with OPEC. I believe Trump will or has been assertive with Saudi in private. MbS knows that if the USA put their minds to it they could stir internal unrest via proxy for regime change. We will know if this pressure (or threats) has paid off next week. Using COVID-19 as an excuse to save face, Saudi could delay oil dumping for at least 30 days or possibly until the June OPEC meeting. See http://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/3/25/texas-rrc-chairman-wayne-christian-we-must-stabilize-worldwide-oil-markets.

Although BPC is not an oil major, it's SP is being treated as one until Brent POO recovers to the $40s. At over $40, maybe even $35 extraction cost, the market will see less risk that BPC's funding partners will get cold feet, and more chance Spud will happen. If Saudi does the above next week, SP could quickly increase into the 2p+ range and much higher after the current Covid-19 panic gets under control.

GLA

Hi Poppins. Noted. Even though i've only got 5 quid in BPCshares after splashing out and extra 2 quid today, I love everyone on this forum. It's therapeutic and avoids me phoning Samaritans 3 times a day based on Covid-19, oil price, share downturn and Man Utd not getting auto qualification for champions league yet

I really can't fault the BPC BOD. If i was on the BOD, i see nothing that could have changed where the company is now. I am not its appologist , *****, S+M 'gimp' or loyal groupie, however (1) it has raised cash to do its own drill in difficult circumstances at fair rates (subject to conditions), (2) other BODs would have just done a mega rights issue, (3) it could not have forseen Covid-19 or POO collapse (4) it has found a solution by kicking spud date to 4th quarter (5) it has probably been offered farm-ins at punitive rates and rejected them. Others may have accepted this for an easy life. (6) BPC is not Tullow Oil or made the same mistakes resulting in a CEO being canned. in fact BPC's market cap was higher than Tullow a few weeks ago.

I still have a lot of continued faith in the BOD. The fact share price is so low only creates opportunity to buy more

In the wider world, jobies or toilet droppings, ie taking a dump. In oil terminology..... Price of Oil

Prospect, i dont agree everything was bad news. My comments embedded in your post below [in brackets]

All the bad news that we were expecting regarding COVID-19 v BPC is over.

(a) Delay is confirmed, [another 6 months not the end of the world under circumstances of poo and covid19]
(b) Licence extension due to force majeure event inevitable, [that's good news and adds value]
(c) POO, [sh+te news but not BPC fault]
(d) Equity indexes, [sh+te news but not BPC fault]
(e) Tourism [incentive for BG to help]

Short of a nuclear war I can't see any other reason why BPC won't eventually be in a position to drill. After all, think we have had the book thrown at us and still we persevere. [I agree]

Looking into my crystal ball what can I see...

Negative news largely done and a raft of positive news to flow going forwards....

Sub 1p would be an exceptional gift perhaps this is the bottom for BPC... who knows.... whichever way it swings do we as long term investors even care in the very short term.... doubtful... [agreed. Mainly poo and covid19 related. just got newsflash pin prick test will be available at Boots and Amazon. If there was no Covid19, or Poo issue, the SP would likely be in the 3-4p range ]

i agree it is not good to show buys as sells. The only reason i can think of is an earlier very large sell held by MMs being partly filled from some of the buys as the trading day devlops. Although every buy is a sell and every sell is a buy, the color code shows who is instigating it, ie the aggressor

Any find after a strike is still subject to confirmation drilling. Although subject to POO at the time, the SP should soar to 10x at least. Now, if a few months later it is 90% proven 1b reserves are there, it depends on POO and estimated costs to extract. However if there is a proven find, in BPC's case additional prospects could be on the table in nearby acreage, so the SP will soar. But POO has to be more than $35/b using current technology to be viable for extraction. Using a simple arithmetic example rather than real world, BPC could state to a farm-in partner.....'1. give us $2.50 per boe now + a percenatge above that. 2. you do all the work. 3. You pay BG the 25% rolyalties'. ...... Purely using the above example for simplicity, that's $2.5b at least, divided by 2.2 billion shares tax free (as IOM and Bahamas companies dont pay tax) = approx £1 per share. More if royalty driven. More if new finds. Less if a lot more shares out there due to rights issues. ...........However everyone must make their own investment choices. I've made mine.

Petrol, Pre-covid19 and pre POO collapse, analysts predicted SP would double to 8p when all done and dusted and confirmation ship heading to drill site (refer to Proactive presentation)...and 10x price to 36p if they found commerical quantities. Refer to Zac's 4/2/20 presentation on BPC website

Petrol, i agree with most of what you state. As I've pointed out before, the non-tangable assets (lics etc) are potentially worth 2-4.5p per share...before even thinking of the potential of striking oil. Refer to 2018 audited accounts.

Prospect, I don't think a major would do a hostile bid as the amount involved is relatively small, however a group of VC investors with risk appetite may. It would be akin to the Hilton trying to aggressively buy a small hotel chain. Not connected to the above, although BG probably doesn't have a legal mechinism (or budget) to invest directly or indirectly, they have a lot of influential contacts amongst their personal and government networks who may be invited to do so.

I see this paragraph as a hint of possible offer of buy-out in an equity deal. At £30m market cap today, leaving aside USD strength vs GBP, BPC is ripe for a friendly or unfriendly takeover. If you see buy volume over next few days, someone could be taking a position. In fact in first 20 mins of trading there's 10m buy and 500k sells! I have now upgraded to Strong Buy at this SP level