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There appears to be some concern from a few on this forum about the investor's share issue tomorrow and possible affect to SP. It is similar to the concerns whether the Bahamanian Investment fund participants, who got shares at 2p would sell them at the first opportunity.

If an 18 year old had been gifted £1m in shares for their birthday, they'd probably dump a large chunk and go on a shopping spree. I am sure this very professional investment firm who has done many similar transactions over the years has a lot more nous. Especially as it is almost a certainty spud will happen, which leads to the mathematical certainty the SP will soar prior and during spud. And as I stated yesterday, if they do plan to sell large chunks at some point, it will be via BPC's in house stock broker (and one of the 7 MMs) Shore Capital.

BTW, one of the benefits of using a 2nd level console (LSE here, provides one for a small subscription), is on a low momentum stock such as this, you can tell if an MM is attempting to buy/sell large orders. The bid / offer price is not consistent with transactions and volume. Another is a 1 or 24 hour delayed reporting of large orders which happened a lot in the last few days.

in my opinion this SP will soar, with some profit taking and dips in between.

3.71p as of 1 minute ago at auction

PI, a philosophical ethical point to ponder is that an oil explorer such as BPC with no current revenue stream from oil/gas/coal is NOT a polluter or contributor to global warming. Who knows, by the time oil is extracted in 3-4 years, there could be amazing tech to make it totally clean. It already exists however it doubles the price. Furthermore, not all oil is used for driving Hummers or private jets. A lot is used for animal feed-stuff.

TOpinions, Always possibility of a share sale following an award of a mega share option., however the institution that has exercised this for 4th June are professional and astute financiers. Probably why they are going to do well from this deal. For large disposals and acquisitions, the buyer/seller will likely deal direct with Shore Capital BPC's in-house broker to avoid a temporary huge spike either way. And who knows, they may want to keep a chunk anyway based on BPC's potential.

IK, always a pleasure to read your posts. Exciting times for BPC. Have a good one. xxx

If SP hits 3.51p, following some possible profit taking, the resistance level based on last week and last month, could soon reach .... 4.21p.
BTW, there has been at least one big player hoovering shares today including 2m trades with delayed disclosure. Maybe institutional investors/hedge fund at play. Or just a fat cat swinging d++k as they say.

Let's see what happens.

Dear oil majors and super majors,
The oil/gas wealth in the North Sea which is shared a number of mega oil companies such as yourselves has an area of 575.000Km2. Bahama's EEZ has a potentially oil rich area of 218,292 Km2. One company, BPC, has the exploration rights (actual and pending) to 10% of the Bahamas' waters. The Bahamas EEZ owned by a population of 400,000 is 40% the size of the whole north sea. BPC therefore has amazing potential. Take the opportunity for a farm-in with BPC NOW before your competitors do, for the following reasons:
1. According to a Forbes article on 28/07/18 by Robert Rapier, the top 5 PROVEN reserves by you the super majors are:
Exxon Mobil Corporation - 2.940 bbs, ConocoPhillips - 1.974 bbs, Chevron Corporation 1.916 bbs, EOG Resources, 1.808 bbs, BP p.l.c. 1.669 billion barrels. Congratulations for having so many oil assets. Now that you have drastically cut back on exploration capex what are you going to do when your reserves start depleting? Prospect for more which can take 4 years and oil has surged to over $100 (which some analysts predict) but you have nothing to sell?
2. BPC has potential total perspectivity using the STOIIP model of 28.6bboe (current licensed blocks), with possibly 25% recoverable. This equates to over 7bboe. (refer to an excellent 4/2/20 presentation on BPC website). Therefore, BPC has potentially the equivalent of c70% of your combined total proven reserves.
3. Despite the current price of oil and Covid-19 uncertainty, one of you, ExxonMobil had the nous last week (May 2020) to do a farm-in deal with Petronas Suriname purely on prospects in Suriname waters, based on finds nearby in Guyana. (https://caribbeanbusinessreport.com/news/petronas-suriname-sells-50-interest-in-block-52-to-exxon/ )
4. It is highly likely one or more of you have attempted to do a BPC farm-in already but on punitive terms. BPC is not desperate for a farm-in anymore. Cashflow is not an issue to drill its first and maybe second well, as it has several funding options in place. One potential is a dream 'relationship made in heaven' with Stena Drilling part of the cash rich Stena sphere conglomerate. It is therefore almost a mathematical certainty spud(s) will go ahead between 12/20 - 2/21.
5. Upon formal confirmation of the date the exploratory drill(s) will take place, expert analysts working for Shore Capital predicted in February 2020 BPC's share price would double to 8p. Whether this price will happen or not is irrelevant, however based on point 4, another 'almost' mathematical certainty is the price will substantially increase.
6. Now, If oil is found, any farm-in deal will costs you substantially more. Not just because of the potential value of the find in one or two wells, but the increased odds of finding even more oil in BPC's licensed exploration blocks in Bahamas' waters. Refer to point 3 again, re ExxonMobil and Suriname/Guyana.

I suggest you act NOW before SP soars.
Starc

This was from my 12/3/20 post on this forum. Hope it helps. All prices/exchange rates approx. As a reminder, there are now 2.3b shares in play, not 2.1b......

1. In April 2010 when BPC floated on the UK AIM market there were 860,000,000 shares.
2. Oil was at c$100 barrel when BPC peaked at 25.697p intraday 4th Feb 2011.
3. This gave BPC a market cap of £220m/(@1.60=) $350m in Feb 2011. This was equivalent to 10.2p based on 2.1 billion+ shares.
4. On 9 Aug 2018, an intraday share price high of 7.4446 was reached. Using round figures of 2.1 billion BPC shares, this made the market cap on this day £160m/$210m. Oil price was $70.
5. However the peak 25p 2011 share price and $350m market cap was before EA approval, before any sign of oil and prior to BPC exploration having seriously began.

Jim/Phoebus, I stand corrected and thank you for your observations. I'll reword my statement to...... 'if BPC has 2 prospected wells to explore, it increases our odds of success'.

Petrol, please refer to this key presentation by Dr Zac Phillips below. The 36p fair value price is if commercial volumes of oil are found creating a potential net asset worth $1 billion. There are various checks done after spud and striking oil which can take several weeks. £1 per share would value the company at £2.3B with current shares in play, assuming no dilution. My personal take on this: if the spud is successful and proven, depending on POO at the time, farm-in or take-over M+A at a huge premium will be on the cards...because if there's 1 good well, there's probably others. The nice thing about a farm-in , is the oil major will do the work and BPC shareholders collect royalties via dividends. Depending on dividends and POO, it will dictate the share price. Zac's article...

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/912143/bahamas-petroleum-company---countdown-has-begun-912143.html/long

Good spot Linton. The tribune is complaining about late payment of licence fees, however there are a couple of clarifications needed:
1. Article makes the impression BPC fleeced Bahamas investors to pay the fees. This is not true as it had $12m in the bank prior to investment fund.
2. Why would BPC pay ANY license fees until Environmental approval granted?2.

Good morning

Yesterday BPC was the record riser in the All-AIM market at 70.33%. This means traders will study the stock today. I looked back at historical price patterns. On 22/1/20 SP was 2.1p and over the next 24 trading days until 25/2/20 it surged to a 5.7p inter-day high. An opinion by Shore capital that SP could reach 8.5p upon confirmation a drill ship 'was on its way' and Zak's 36p financial model on successful spud, helped this SP increase.

Leaving aside the SP on a successful spud, I believe there is a case to argue that BPC is in a better position today than in January based on Tuesday's RNS. Rationale:
1. Involvement of Stena for all the reasons I stated yesterday morning. 'A partnership made in heaven.'
2. Several funding options on the table.
3. Farm-in with a major still a possibility. (or a mini farm-in with Stena)
4. POO price is irrelevant until a successful find is proven. People with PhDs can then opine on projected SP (30p, 36p, 40p?) nearer the time.
5. And importantly, there is the potential for a 2nd drill during or soon after the 1st. It is petty cash for Stena and would double the probability of a successful find to c65%.
6. All the above may even entice institutional investors/hedge funds to have a small flutter.

Clearly, the main contributing factor governing whether the SP will substantially exceed 5.7p again in the next 24 trading days, is speculative risk appetite, under-pinned by Covid-19 developments and global stock markets generally.

Finally, let's remember over the 24 trading days in Jan-Feb referred to above, not every day created a new SP high. 3 steps forward and 1 back still results in getting to a final destination. So, if any day traders are reading our posts, I suggest 'you switch off your stop/loss trading algorithms and keep an affordable chunk of BPC stock. It could earn you a MASSIVE ROI'.

Have a great day.

Phoebus: your red trades buys post. Here is how it works on UK AIM and FTSE: any trade below mid price is automatically assumed to be a sell (red font). Anything above a buy. Black font is exact mid price. Market Makers have nothing to do with this. It's the system.

Sprite, I totally agree with buddy . However it's cold, wet and not many houses with pools for 1k per month!

Phoebus. Your tax return question is only relevant if you made profits over the capital gains limit or wish to carry forward a loss. Best you speak to an accountant as I don't want my advice to lead you in jail. The best solution for anyone on this forum who is either retired, or allowed to be a homeworker is move to a jurisdiction with no capital gains. such as Bahamas (expensive), Dubai (very expensive), Monaco (extremely expensive) or Cyprus ( cheap). I've got British friends who live in Cyprus and they pay 1000 quid a month for a 4 bed house and pool, no capital gains, 20k tax free allowance on any other income and for 15 years if you are an ex-pat, no tax on dividends or bank interest as a non-dom.

Theroxbury, refer to my Stena post early this morning. I'm not suggesting my post caused the rise, however the underlying reasoning has.

Maverick, I respectfully disagree with you. SP is not moving too quickly. It is because the SP is seriously under-priced. Even some day-traders are looking at more than a quick 20%. Please refer to my post this morning on justification re Stena.

Stena Drilling is a wholly subsidiary of the family owned Swedish conglomerate Stena AB. The conglomerate of three major Stena holding companies is known as the 'Stena Sphere.' (See wiki). They are private companies owned by one family, the Group has made a profit every year since 1939 and has grown to include the largest ferry company in the world. another subsidiary is a Stena financing arm.

1. I checked their financial statements and they are VERY cash rich. This explains why BPC gave Stena options to subscribe up to $10m to offset drilling fees. This could not have been done with Seadrill who appeared almost broke even before Covid-19 and POO price correction.
2. Stena have fingers in various pies including energy and tankers. It appears to be a possible partnership made in heaven.
3. Based on the 10% $10m Stena share option using simple maths and assuming (a) no further share dilution other than an increase to the current 2,327,572,616 BPC shares in play by 10% to execute this option (new total 2.56b shares)....and....(b) conservative exchange rate of £1=$1.20 USD, this values the market cap at £83m. Divide this by 2.56b shares, gives us 3.2p TODAY including a 10% share dilution for Stena. $10m for Stena is petty cash, based on the return they can get!
4. I don't think its dawned on the markets as yet, that today BPC and Stena executed a potential mini farm-in option which values the SP at a DISCOUNTED 3.2p for Stena based on the price prediction being a lot higher than that before any oil is even found.

My opinions are:
1. The SP is very undervalued. If it wasn't for (a) Covid-19 uncertainty, (b) POO, to a lesser extent, as any oil found is for 3-4 years time), and (c) slightly nervous investors who lost money in the current stock markets' price correction although risk appetite is increasing daily , the SP would likely be in the 5p range today.
2. A Stena deal can be a win win and a dream partnership made in heaven.
3. I have full confidence in the Board to optimize its many funding options with Stena being one of them.
4. They may even leverage a 2nd well, if the 1st one is dry. This will increase the industry odds for a BPC oil strike from 1/3 to 2/3.

Bottom line: at 2p...STRONG BUY

Leansniper, I respectfully disagree. Hurricane season lasts till +/- Nov 30. Makes sense to delay till December for this reason and also Covid-19. If you read the RNS small print, the BOD have even got a penalty clause in-built for several million in case drilling partner cannot fulfil contract. It is unlikely any drill supplier would have agreed to such a risk clause in normal times. I think it's a great RNS.

Summary: contract signed with various options to pay for it. Drill will take place December