Member Info for Starchild

BPC is sitting on a potential billion barrel find. It doesn't have to pay $40k per day in Contango storage. Mother nature is storing it for free. The potential of this opportunity is not refected in the current SP.

Mark, I'd be more nervous if RNS confirmed May/June spud. and $25m at risk over a missing widget. Furthermore there was a small risk an RNS could have stated lender(s) have cold feet and pulled out. That would have been a bad day for SP!

the RNS is very positive. Dig deep into funding options paragraphs..alternative stratagies as well as majors farm-in still there....and the funding options remain

i was right....see RNS!!!!

New emergency order closed Bahamas for business yesterday 24/3/20, as well as de facto closing its borders. Good reason for BG to extend exploration lic past 31/12/20. The following arguments will likely be used by BoD:
1. under current conditions, lending partner(s) does not want the risk of an early spud (Covid-19, closed boders) and ask us to move date to October.
2. EA approval took many years. WIthout it we couldn't drill. This has not been BPC's fault
3. Covid-19 is an unforseen, force majure/act of God event. If for any reason we cannot drill in October and BG takes exploration lic away, there could be legal issues and practical ones, the biggest one being it will take years for BG to find another explorer and go through the bidding red tape.
4. Please extend until 2022, however in good faith, we plan to Spud in October 2020

I think RNS this week, maybe monday at the latest

I am not smoking something exotic, or living in dream. I am quoting from the Bahamas Chamber of Commerce and Employers Confederation (BCCEC) chairman Chester Cooper. It is a CNBC article from 2012 https://www.cnbc.com/id/47948335 .
If BPC finds just 1bb vs 4bb, most persons on this forum including me, will be as happy as a free range Turkey living in a vegan Christmas farm.

Hawk, Same thing happened to me a few days ago as mentioned on my post. My buy was shown as a sell. Even if there is an underlying reason, perhaps a large sell order being partly filled during the day, it should be shown as separate transactions to give the proper sentiment. On your other comment I think RNS will happen this week or Monday.

MG, Even if there was no issue with funding in May/June (which there is if SP goes below 2p for 5 consec days), if you were the BoD, would you not air on caution and spud 4th qtr? Remember 1 missing part stuck in China due to logistics, or a key person gets ill....BPC has blown away most of its drilling dollars. The only thing a May/June 'guaranteed' early drill will do is to temporarily surge SP. There are too many risks in my opinion.

I agree, but to get extension you need gov sign off. It is very cumbersome based on red tape between a verbal 'yes' to a written 'yes'. Just look how long it took to get EA. I think gov will agree to this out of common sense and even if they didn't, drill must take place prior to 1/1/21 and October is a do-able. If they dodnt agree, it will annoy a lot of wealthy Bahamians, some possibly influential or political, who bought shares in the fund in good faith. No supplier can seriousley complain to Primark for closing all their shops and cancelling factory orders under Force Majure.

I predict RNS this week based on logic:
1. Spud date put back to October (Covid-19/insurance/and to a lesser degree POO)
2. Although recent share price is below level for further draw downs, Bahamian family firm still wants to participate with BPC in October.
3. We dont need original CLN
4. BoD is confident it can proceed, however just to be sure, we will ask Bahamas Gov for extension into 2021 under force majure issues, just in case
5. Farm-ins still on the table

Based on my previous post, I bought more within the last 30 mins. I am concerned my buy is shown as a sell. I've taken a screenshot and will explore further as I hope someone is not playing games to artificially lower SP realtime sentiment.

At this price, BPC is susceptible to a dawn raid by an investor who realises the potential value of its assets is more than £33m market cap. Which is why I'm holding, as the price may surge.
Not connected with the above is a spud date in October and potentially the BG gov extending lic until 2021/2022 under force majeure/acts of God events. Either will likely increase SP, which is why I'm holding.
The price of POO is irrelevent in the medium/long term. If you had the funds to buy a super tanker full of oil at $25/b (assuming the $40k/day storage fee was waived), would you do so knowing it would at some point double? Well, BPC has more than a super tanker full...it's called exploration wells of possibly 0-10bb of oil, which costs zero a day to store. I'm holding and planning to buy more.

The post subject title may appear daft. It is not. Up until the price of POO collapsed in early March, the SP was never really influenced by POO because of the 5 year lead time between finding oil and selling it downstream. But now it is. In my opinion if POO gets to high $30s SP will go up substantially. Over $40 it will surge in anticipation of expectations vs risk. BPC is currently being treated as an oil producing share on par with oil majors until POO increases. I believe it will.

I prefer an October spud date as there is likely a 12 week lock-down leaving it very difficult for logistics, lead times and risk.

Advantages:
1. Potentially less risk from Covid-19 to the crew, due to herd protection. Potentially good progress for a vaccine.
2. Markets may have calmed down
3. Saudi/Russia may have agreed to quotas and POO up
4. Due to all the above, more chance of a farm-in

BoD should attempt to get BG to extend spud deadline into 2021 just in case. It's not BPC's fault the gov procrastinated for many years on Env Approval. If there is an 'act of god' or 'force majure' clause in the deal it has with Bahamas, they are likely covered anyway.

The post title is mine. The content below is from an Axios article https://www.axios.com/trump-tiptoes-toward-oil-engagement-063e46db-d300-4e5e-a414-7b61ef4982c9.html

'Texas Railroad Commissioner Ryan Sitton's piece floats the idea of Texas cutting production by 10% if the Saudis and Russians are also willing to cut output 10% from pre-pandemic levels. He notes that it would take the federal government to cut that deal'.

Excellent 4 minute film clip Bynari. I agree with the common sense spoken by Sternlicht in the Bloomberg interview, however turning markets off for 2 weeks makes no sense to me unless further massive sell-offs happen.

Good morning all.
Companies such as Glencore would not buy and park oil in super tankers at $40k/day on a whim. In 2008/9 Gunvor made $600m by playing the contango game when oil surged, plummeted then doubled in price. These guys have analysts and risk managers with PhDs. There is a risk POO could go into negative figures if they bet the wrong way and dump at the same time. A bit like buying $10m of toilet paper and renting a warehouse on the assumption it will be sold. However the Glencore's of the world are quite savvy. They assume (1) Russia/Opec will resolve issues and (2) The pandemic will blow over and even if it doesn't a vaccine will be developed.

I did a quick basic calculation this morning. Among the ships booked is the largest tanker in the world - Europe - which can hold three million barrels alone and is currently floating off Singapore. 3m barrels@$25 = $75m. To store it for c6 months = say , a conservative $33k/day x 200 days = $6.6m. They assume the price will go up with a break even point of $27. If POO goes to $40-50, they make a fortune. Of course its not as simple as that, as Glencore will possibly buy and sell its rights to this oil several times to other traders and leverage greater profit.

For some fact checking ...
1. see https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/transport/oil-tankers-drop-anchor-as-traders-see-profit-in-price-rout
2. Google Contango

Good luck today. I have marked the stock as a buy again
ps...does anyone have a spare warehouse to store a jobby lot of poo rolls? I have a cunning plan.

Diplomatic polite speak: 'Gents, please do a deal with Russia over oil prices as its hurting your buddy USA'
Real world communications in phone calls and emails....'do a ++++ing deal with Russia, otherwise MbS will become history in a coup and the USA will embargo your oil for destroying USA Shale jobs ++++holes'

Result ny end of March blaming Covid-19 for POO to go up? I think so
see
https://www.hartenergy.com/news/senators-boost-pressure-saudi-russia-over-oil-market-share-war-186561

Bonum, I admire your upbeat positive posts. Life and health is more important that money. Good luck old chap.

I've never replied to my own post, however one important addition I forgot to add: Before buying additional shares an hour ago I was aware there is a caveat in the funding terms and conditions that if the stock is under 2p for five consecutive trading days, the goal posts change and the investor can pull out. This doesn't concern me.

I have studied this stock, invested heavily and believe in its medium term future success. Please review my recent posts before deciding what to do next.