RE: Silver Short Squeeze28 Jan 2021 12:01
A recent headwind for PM's has been the rise in US long bond yields. When these go up, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold or silver rises too. So we see sellers and PM prices go down.
What has happened over the last few days? Funds and other insto investors needing to cover equity short positions under attack by the r/wsb phenomenon (and it is a phenomenon, perhaps not a durable one...) have sold liquid equity holdings to raise cash. Risk-off has become the mantra, with speculative stocks like UFO marked down as a result. Falling equity prices heighten the safe haven appeal of US long bonds which attract buyers. So yields on long bonds fall (they are below 1% again now), lowering the opportunity cost of holding PM's. And - as sure as eggs are eggs - PM's catch a bid and see their prices start to strengthen.
All of this is completely separate from the real world, where industrial demand for silver continues to increase as discussed endlessly here and elsewhere.
My expectation is that the r/wsb phenomenon will blow itself out within weeks. Too many people will lose money for it to be sustained. When this happens, the shorted stocks will fall and margin requirements will be released. The funds selling equities today will look to buy back what they sold. Equity prices will rise, long bond yields will fall and around again we will go...
These are short term fluctuations. They are not relevant for investors in companies like UFO who (should) have longer timescales.
So holders should just hold...