Member Info for Starboard

On Jul 25 we broke above the downtrend in place since Mar 09. As predicted, we came back and tested it, but haven't closed below it since. We've now closed above it for 9 straight days, which is very bullish. 40p is very imminent.

Also mild recession later this year predicted by Fitch, as they downgrade US debt.

TLW holding up strongly in the face of rising US yields and $, possibility of recession, and falling oil. Good times ahead on the next leg up for oil, or Kenya, or Ghana...

Harry44, Anton, Blue

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabia-Is-Cooking-Up-A-Surprise-For-The-Oil-Markets.html

"Recent production cuts by Saudi Arabia are beginning to take a toll on the nation's economy, according to the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook. The Kingdom's 2023 GDP growth projections have been significantly reduced, now expected to reach only 1.9%, down from the previously projected 3.1% in May. The IMF attributed this downgrade to the production cuts announced in April and June as part of the OPEC+ agreement.

Market analysts and media should closely monitor Riyadh's actions in the coming weeks, as a significant change may be on the horizon. Although no immediate changes are expected at the upcoming JMCC meeting, a Saudi production hike before October 2023 is highly plausible. "

Why?

Formatting was lost on posting, but there are three numbers on each of three rows under the headings

No. shares, Price (GBP), Cost (GBP)

There are two numbers on the Total row under the headings

No. shares, Cost (GBP)

There's one number on the bottom row under the heading

Price (GBP)

That's the average purchase price, or the breakeven price, excluding costs.

Elbon,

Very easy in Excel, see example below.

No. shares Price (GBP) Cost (GBP)

10 0.1 1

25 0.5 12.5

50 0.3 15

Total 85 28.5

Breakeven 0.34

Breakeven is the total cost of your investments in TLW divided by the number of shares you hold.

Since the lows of May, Picktet's 2.08% short has lost $3,610,771. Sweet.

He's busy posting ADVFN as reubenblackgold. Latest:

"More easy money today, and for laughs we have the morons on the other board to entertain us."

He's still delusional. Thinks there's an "us", while the reality is no one on that board responds to his worthless garbage.

They seem determined to become an oil producing nation. Maybe hedging their bets by auctioning more blocks in the hope of finding lighter oil in case Turkana doesn't work out. More likely they need more crude to make a refinery viable than Turkana will supply, given much of it's oil will be exported as crude by partners. No indication they intend to import oil.

On Turkana, I don't believe Rahul would have submitted a plan if the find was commercially unviable. Long expensive heated pipeline not ideal, but in itself doesn't make the project commercially unviable. Neither would so many politicians be risking their reputations by being so publicly optimistic about the project if there was a viability question yet to be answered. I believe approval is a matter of rubber stamping what is tacitly already agreed, and that contracts with partners will be signed on approval.

Anton,

Third last paragraph: "the pipeline to evacuate the oil to Lamu". The port must be developed in order to export oil from Turkana.

https://nation.africa/kenya/business/kenya-to-gazette-five-new-oil-blocks-for-auction--4260638

Anton,

Why would you think the refinery is for imported oil based on this article? The only mention of ship type is that of container ships, there's no mention of oil or oil tankers, or bulk tankers of any type.

So I'm not the only one who thought so (I posted that here yesterday). He also goes by jugears on ADVFN, where he refers to people on this board as "chancers" and "stupid".

Anton,

I believe this refinery will process part of Kenya's 22.5%, with some or all of the remainder of Kenya share being shipped to Indonesia for refining there.

I believe the potential strategic partners China and India want the oil for domestic consumption and will ship the crude home.

Remains to be seen what TLW will do but I believe they'll sell their share as unrefined crude, either to Kenya, Indonesia, strategic partner, or other.

So I think the refinery is for Kenyan consumption and that of surrounding countries.

I'll say it again: Existing shorts are our friends now.

They did their damage to the SP when they sold. They now have no influence on the SP until they take further action. If they want to close their position as they lose money with the rising SP, they will have to buy to close, driving the price higher still.

Only if they add to their shorts can they have any other influence, and those would be new shorts. I for one would not be opening new shorts after seeing the recent director buys and delivery of Jubilee SE, with Kenya and Ghana announcements imminent.

Why is anyone talking about Kenya pulling the plug??!! All the signs point to commitment and determination to this project.

Closed above the trendline for the first time since Mar 08. Bullish. This month is on track to be the best one of the last 12.

SC

Doesn't the project have to get into production for the costs to date to be recoverable?

Once again the SP has poked through the downward sloping trend in place since Mar 08. A close above this line would be the most bullish signal from the SP in months.

Meanwhile, Dr PaDong is over on ADVFN encouraging people to sell by suggesting he's going to sell to take profits, and stating people expecting payout from Kenya are "chancers" and "stupid" . He's jugears and reubenblackgold over there, easy to spot him.

TLW claimed about $2bn, Kenya's auditors disallowed about $150mn of that, so the amount recoverable up to recent years is already agreed. If it's not paid, and TLW pull out, production would soon cease. Why would another operator step with the expectation of being treated differently? The math is simple; Kenya will pay $2bn in order to collect $8bn.

Actually, OrangeMan's calculation would be more correct. If we get repaid the $2bn from Ghana, our investment would be $0, so division would be along the lines of current value and farmee investment.