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Once again the SP has poked through the downward sloping trend in place since Mar 08. A close above this line would be the most bullish signal from the SP in months.
Meanwhile, Dr PaDong is over on ADVFN encouraging people to sell by suggesting he's going to sell to take profits, and stating people expecting payout from Kenya are "chancers" and "stupid" . He's jugears and reubenblackgold over there, easy to spot him.
TLW claimed about $2bn, Kenya's auditors disallowed about $150mn of that, so the amount recoverable up to recent years is already agreed. If it's not paid, and TLW pull out, production would soon cease. Why would another operator step with the expectation of being treated differently? The math is simple; Kenya will pay $2bn in order to collect $8bn.
If this calculation is done on a pro-rata basis of amount invested, the 77.5% share after Ghana's 23% is divided 29%/48% in favor of the farmee. So it looks like a TLW share in the high twenties would be fair.
That's $2bn cost recovery from Ghana, plus a share in the high twenties.
So TLW will get $2bn from Kenya's production after production starts, plus the income from whatever share they retain. If TLW retain 0% and the project goes into production, they still get $2bn. And they won't end up with 0%.
Haven't TLW already spent $2bn on Kenya? Any carry we get thus won't be free, we simply invested up front while the farmee has yet to invest their share. On the basis of the value of the field, and Tlw's spend to date, wouldn't it be reasonable to expect a return of more than $2bn in Kenya?
Blue,
TLW is up 55% in 2 months. A small pullback today is not a sign of weakness, it's normal profit-taking after a strong run. Halliburton is also down today, following a recent strong run. Exon and BP are up 1% each, not several %. Oil is threatening to go into the red as I write. Nothing here says TLWs recent run is ending anytime soon.
Yes, I believe not only that it can, but that it will.
We are up against the underside of a downward sloping trend on the daily which has been in place since Mar 08. It has three touchpoints, not including this weeks three touches. It was to be expected that we wouldn't smash through it, but if we hold here, we could push through, and see 40 very very soon. We could then pull back to the trend in a retest, before resuming the rise onwards and upwards.
I've highlighted before the gap on the weekly from around 130p to around 80p. Not every gap gets filled, but a lot of them do, and a Kenya announcement could get us to 80p.
At least as important as the material benefit of the increased income and improved ability to pay down debt, this shows that Rahul and Tullow can get the job done.
This will go a long way toward the restoration of confidence in, and sentiment toward, Tullow.
Gingy
"Languishing" is one word that could be used, or "building a base to launch higher" could be a term that is applied. Either way, this share is up from 22p to 29.5p since 17 May. That's a 34% increase in less than 2 months, hardly languishing, and has the hallmarks of the "big boys" position-building in anticipation of news. When it breaks, more will pile in.