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Tango
Peel Hunt rating won't do any harm, but broker recommendations didn't prevent the sp from falling well below recommended values, so probably won't help the rise either.
Positive actions (debt buyback), announcements (Jubilee SE, GHANA gas, Gabon extensions) and director dealings (share purchases) have had a much more beneficial effect.
Posted by xxnjr on ADVFN:
"The 2025 7%'s have recovered from about a 55% low to c.65% now.
whilst the 2026 10.25%'s have gone from about 75% to 83% now.
The cup is starting to look half full after years of being almost empty."
On Jul 25 we broke above the downtrend in place since Mar 09. As predicted, we came back and tested it, but haven't closed below it since. We've now closed above it for 9 straight days, which is very bullish. 40p is very imminent.
Also mild recession later this year predicted by Fitch, as they downgrade US debt.
TLW holding up strongly in the face of rising US yields and $, possibility of recession, and falling oil. Good times ahead on the next leg up for oil, or Kenya, or Ghana...
Harry44, Anton, Blue
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabia-Is-Cooking-Up-A-Surprise-For-The-Oil-Markets.html
"Recent production cuts by Saudi Arabia are beginning to take a toll on the nation's economy, according to the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook. The Kingdom's 2023 GDP growth projections have been significantly reduced, now expected to reach only 1.9%, down from the previously projected 3.1% in May. The IMF attributed this downgrade to the production cuts announced in April and June as part of the OPEC+ agreement.
Market analysts and media should closely monitor Riyadh's actions in the coming weeks, as a significant change may be on the horizon. Although no immediate changes are expected at the upcoming JMCC meeting, a Saudi production hike before October 2023 is highly plausible. "
Formatting was lost on posting, but there are three numbers on each of three rows under the headings
No. shares, Price (GBP), Cost (GBP)
There are two numbers on the Total row under the headings
No. shares, Cost (GBP)
There's one number on the bottom row under the heading
Price (GBP)
That's the average purchase price, or the breakeven price, excluding costs.
Elbon,
Very easy in Excel, see example below.
No. shares Price (GBP) Cost (GBP)
10 0.1 1
25 0.5 12.5
50 0.3 15
Total 85 28.5
Breakeven 0.34
Breakeven is the total cost of your investments in TLW divided by the number of shares you hold.
He's busy posting ADVFN as reubenblackgold. Latest:
"More easy money today, and for laughs we have the morons on the other board to entertain us."
He's still delusional. Thinks there's an "us", while the reality is no one on that board responds to his worthless garbage.
They seem determined to become an oil producing nation. Maybe hedging their bets by auctioning more blocks in the hope of finding lighter oil in case Turkana doesn't work out. More likely they need more crude to make a refinery viable than Turkana will supply, given much of it's oil will be exported as crude by partners. No indication they intend to import oil.
On Turkana, I don't believe Rahul would have submitted a plan if the find was commercially unviable. Long expensive heated pipeline not ideal, but in itself doesn't make the project commercially unviable. Neither would so many politicians be risking their reputations by being so publicly optimistic about the project if there was a viability question yet to be answered. I believe approval is a matter of rubber stamping what is tacitly already agreed, and that contracts with partners will be signed on approval.
Anton,
Third last paragraph: "the pipeline to evacuate the oil to Lamu". The port must be developed in order to export oil from Turkana.
https://nation.africa/kenya/business/kenya-to-gazette-five-new-oil-blocks-for-auction--4260638
Anton,
Why would you think the refinery is for imported oil based on this article? The only mention of ship type is that of container ships, there's no mention of oil or oil tankers, or bulk tankers of any type.
Anton,
I believe this refinery will process part of Kenya's 22.5%, with some or all of the remainder of Kenya share being shipped to Indonesia for refining there.
I believe the potential strategic partners China and India want the oil for domestic consumption and will ship the crude home.
Remains to be seen what TLW will do but I believe they'll sell their share as unrefined crude, either to Kenya, Indonesia, strategic partner, or other.
So I think the refinery is for Kenyan consumption and that of surrounding countries.
I'll say it again: Existing shorts are our friends now.
They did their damage to the SP when they sold. They now have no influence on the SP until they take further action. If they want to close their position as they lose money with the rising SP, they will have to buy to close, driving the price higher still.
Only if they add to their shorts can they have any other influence, and those would be new shorts. I for one would not be opening new shorts after seeing the recent director buys and delivery of Jubilee SE, with Kenya and Ghana announcements imminent.