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While disappointing to give up some of the days' gains because of the drop in the oil price at the end of the day, still a positive day for Tullow.
Today marks the third consecutive day we've closed above the trendline connecting the daily highs since Mar 09. The sp did in fact drop to the line and then promptly bounce up from it.
When we get through 57p, we will be back above an upward sloping trendline connecting the weekly lows since Sep 28, 2020, which we fell below in June. That will be very significant.

Sorry, previous message subject should have been TLW sp trendline break, rather than oil price; selected it in haste from a drop-down offering.

Well, today was the most bullish day for TLW since 2021 results publication on 09 March, by a long way, and for several reasons.

One of those was the size of the move up from the lows of the day, which was the biggest for 5 months.
More significantly, we closed above the downward sloping trendline connecting the highs on the daily since 09 Mar, for the first time in 5 months. We are out of the downtrend.
Today also contributed to the formation of a bullish hammer on the weekly chart.

These all bode well for the continuation of recent price action. 60p next week? Then? My long term target is 250p. Recall the gap from around 82p to 140p on the weekly chart? That means no resistance between 82p and 140p.

Patience is the key folks.

Delap, I would have thought that would be allowed-for in the 60 day, e.g., no oil found by day 54, start capping.

Anyone have more insight on these things?

Tullow has been in a downtrend on the daily chart since 09 Mar this year, the day of the 2021 results release, almost 5 months ago, as a result of the negative investor sentiment brought about by those results .
In May I drew a downward sloping trendline connecting the highs on the daily. The sp briefly poked above that line on Monday. After 5 months below it, with many touches since May, it was never going to smash through it without some positive news.
As the sp has remained just under this line all week, in spite of a falling oil price, it appears to reflect an expectation of imminent good news. When it closes above, it will herald a change in market sentiment towards TLW, and the start of the next material rise in the sp to 60p, or more, maybe much more.

July also formed a bullish hammer on the monthly.

The lowest price in July was 39.36p on 07 Jul, and the highest was 51.6p on 31 Jul, a 31% increase in the sp in one month.

As Warren Buffet says, "The stockmarket is a device for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient". Good things come to those who wait. Our wait for the next leg up may be almost over.

Jet, that's some bizarre logic!
That's like telling your driving test examiner that you can drive, then refusing to do so because he asked you to back up your statement.
Methinks you were unable, not unwilling to back it up.

Cap, why do post deliberately misleading **** like this? He's still in Israel, hasn't even traveled to Saudi Arabia yet.

All dollar -denominated commodities fall in price in dollar terms as the dollar rises in value relative to other currencies; as it costs more in other currencies to buy the same amount of the commodity, demand tends to fall. The dollar has risen 13% since January this year. Days of falling oil prices and a continuously rising dollar are not good days for TLW or any other oiler. It's not just oilers either; it's been carnage in the other commodity markets recently. Oil was actually holding up very well, and is rising again as I write this.
Who knows how strong the dollar can get, but when it turns, there will be a mad scramble for dollar-denominated commodities and other currencies, and TLW will benefit.

"reverse takeover?" Nonsensical question. A reverse takeover is where a privately-owned company buys a publicly-owned one in order to get a stock-market listing without going through an IPO process. Merrill Lynch completed their IPO in 1971 on the NYSE.

As for "big institutions are not happy with the merger because they have loads of shorts on Tlw", also nonsense. There are three reportable short positions on TLW, all three of which have been reduced since January. The largest position is 1.09%, the total is 2.84%. None of them is Merrill Lynch, and non could be considered big institutions. You could have determined this by clicking a single button on this page, but that might constitute actual "research", which is clearly not the bedrock of a lot of posting on this board.

Anton,

Anton, thanks for taking the time.

Their wholly inadequate response immediately begs the questions:
Who did Tullow contact, when did they make contact, and what was the response to the enquiry? What is the issue? What steps are being taken to resolve it, and by who? When will it be resolved and publicly available information brought up to date?

I'm sure everyone here would be grateful if you would follow up with these questions Anton.

Thanks

"I can ensure you that Rahul and management are extremely busy meeting our all our major shareholders at the moment."

Adieu, I believe IR need to clarify their response to you. Can you please ask the question: are 'major shareholders' being given information that PIs not being given? If so, is that not illegal; any material information should be released through the proper channels to all market participants at the same time?

Thanks in advance.

Are these 'major shareholders' selling because of what they're hearing? The obsession with shorters on this board is remarkable; the known shorters have been reducing their shorts by buying back shares for the last several months, which is supportive of the share price.
Just selling a share in large volumes to reduce a holding drives the SP down. Please no responses that for every sell there's a buy; the buyer is a Market Maker, legally obliged to buy your shares, although they get to dictate the price. So there may not be a willing buyer on the other side of every sell, as many on here claim.

I'm as frustrated as any LTH, especially since I came late to TLW, but let's keep it real.

BigR, Stuart, J,

Can one of you please explain exactly, in as much detail as you wish, the exact mechanics of how this share is being manipulated.
Are all of the MMs, all the brokers, all the institutions conspiring, and only us handful of us poor PIs are not part of it?
That would make it a bit like the Covid conspiracy, in which 58 million healthcare workers worldwide would need to be conspiring, and not one of them has said a word in more than 2 years!

Based on the chart in this article, by my calculation, the combined company would have just over 2 billion boe. At today's price of $115, that's $230 billion worth of reserves. The combined company is being valued at $1.9 billion, which is 0.8% of the value of the reserves.
That doesn't seem right to me, given that a quick Google reveals that the most widely accepted method of valuation of an upstream oiler is a Net Asset Value Analysis (NAV).
Has anyone on here attempted to put a value on the combined company using this method, or knows where we could get hold of a valuation based on NAV?

Please post the evidence for this claim

See 4.1 a. of the Takeover Code. When would the ramblings on this board be considered "rumour and speculation"?

4PRACTICE STATEMENT NO 20 CONTINUED
4. When an announcement is required before an approach
(a) Rule 2.2(d)
4.1 Before a potential offeror which is actively considering an offer has made
an approach to the board of the offeree company, the requirement for
the potential offeror to make an announcement under Rule 2.2(d) will be
triggered if:
(a) the offeree company is the subject of rumour and speculation; or
(b) there is an untoward movement in its share price,
and, in either case, there are reasonable grounds for concluding that it
is the potential offeror’s actions (whether through inadequate security or
otherwise) which have led to the situation

No update from current Kenya JV partners either then. Have they all done a bunk/ceased trading?

Even after the oil price falling back to $103.99 at the time of writing, if it closes at this level it will have maintained yesterday's break above the downward sloping trendline connecting the highs since the March 06 high on the daily. Very positive.

Thanks guys

BB,

Where can I find this RNS? I don't see it on this site. Can you please paste the full text or post a link.

Thanks

His job is to be the most boring man in oil until the debt is paid down, and he's performing admirably in that respect.