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Thanks for the links hitman. Yes it will take a little bit of time for the production to reverse but then I imagine it will go fast as the returns from existing wells are decreasing exponentially. And once production declines and wti is still at levels where it is uneconomical to drill then the house of cards will quickly fall down. I have learnt to be patient with Enquest and if we are talking two more years then so be it. By that time net debt will be around 4-500 musd.

What is interesting is to see the amount of 2P reserves that enquest has at present. Chilts or hitman - when does 2C reserves become 2P?

I think also the dropping number of rigs should cause us production to decrease through h2 next year. Otherwise who knows What is going on

Be interesting to See What our 2p reserves come in at in the h2 report

Hi pleth. That was the general consensus last year namely if kraken had been performing we would have avoided the ri

Hi Pleth. I have them paying bumi 10 usd for every barrel of oil extracted.

I have been adding numbers into my spreadsheet calcs based on the update and if I assume that enquest comes in at 67k boepd with opex of 22 and average brent of 64 then I have a year end debt of 1.485 which sounds quite close to what they are indicating. Next year if I assume average production of 72k and average brent of 62 (hopefully on the low side) and opex of 22 I have net debt year end coming in at 1.05 bn in line with EBITDA which would bring us to a ratio of 1.0. I think the re-rate will come second half of next year if these assumptions look to hold.

Agreed Mavrick. AB is not in touch with the shareholder base. FFS we shareholders have pumped in 240 m in the last 2 RIs and the mcap is approximately 400m. PMO has not had anything and their mcap is 800m. Without that RI money we would be at 6p. AB has got to step aside. We have a P/E of 2.3 ffs!!!

Pelle - In my opinion at the end of the day as a shareholder in any company it must be up to board and management to communicate what are they doing and what they anticipate this will mean for shareholders. It must be completely possible for them to estimate and say that next year we will produce somewhere between 70 and 75k. That is sufficiently vague. To sit there with two months to go when we are producing 68,500 over ten months and reiterate that the target is still 63 - 70K is in my opinion a joke. The analysts will ofcourse assume the worst and say that if 63k is the target then that could mean production of 35.5k for november and december. I am sure that is not what enquest intends but that is the result and particuarly so when there is the uncertainty of Thistle hanging over them. Of course they say that net debt will be below 1.5 bn but why leave anything open to misinterpretation. No one is sitting here because they think that it is interesting to listen to AB on the CMD. He is so unsalesmanlike it is depressing. Get out and let a more charismatic person take over like Bob D. I think the big drawback is that english is not ABs first language and he feels uncomfortable.

To be honest i think that enquest has indeed done a stellar job but sadly something has to change in leadership. AB does not enjoy the trust of institutional buyers. Sad but true. Even though we joke about it there is a real risk that the economics would look as you state krakenoil. That is why managers get fired by the board. Look at Pochettino- 5 months ago cl final - today jobless. But there is a healthy relationship between board and management. That healthy relationship sadly does not exist at enquest. Ab is enquest. Talked privately with a fund manager who Said they would never invest in a majority owner stocklisted company. That is maybe What we see. Would love to See Bob step up

Does anyone still have the link to that investor Circle article at the begining of the year that sandbagged enquest. I remember their predictions were flawed but sadly the price is the same...

Pelle - the short answer is yes. Kraken is not npv positive yet. They spent 2.1 bn on it ab said. The other elephant in the room is Alfa which an dodged as well. There they burnt 1.4 bn

AB is the master of dodging the question. He was asked What the thistle repairs would cost. He answered 6%. The question is 6% of what???

I personally have to say that the npv values added zero to the conversation today - maybe a reason for js to speak. Quite honestly it is an insult to shareholders to talk about npv of over 1 bn when Mcap is 400m. Where the fcuk has the 600 m gone??

I think Bob is a very solid guy and makes a very clear and comprehensive pitch around Enquest's delivery capability. Should AB wish to step aside and focus on his charities Bob would be a great replacement.

Where do the brokerage houses find these analysts? Based on the sp development during the CMD Amjad could have been talking about his summer holiday........... WTF?

Agreed smalltrader. Nevertheless, I think we are also at the point that we need RBC, Jefferies, Barclays and Morgans to update their analyses and come with some sensible targets (Morgan has already). Jefferies are still upset that they didnt get to flog 15% of kraken at cut price. None of RBC and Barclays estimates that they made at the beginning of the year are anywhere true. They have missed by a mile. You will find that even with poo at 60 - 65 interval Enquest will be able to reduce net debt to 1.1 bn next year as capex will be significantly lower, there is no Working capital of 50m to fix and production will be higher. This year the capital movement has in fact been 280 + 50 = 330m and with capex being at least 70m lower with todays production levels Enquest will pay down 400m which means either OZ loan gone or the revolving credit more or less gone. Production should be revised up from 72 - 75k boepd next year.

Solid update. I have been writing for some ti me that I expect net debt to be at 1.5 BN by year end and now we get it in black and white. Indeed below which is fantastic. Interestingly, with net debt at 1.56 at end october it must mean that we are reducing debt at 30m per month or thereabouts. Indeed 213 + 61 = 274 which is just shy of what PMO is reducing net debt with. I will add some more at these levels but I will not hazard any guess as to what the sp does today. It could just as well go down thanks to Trump but the important point is that the fundamentals are strong.

Agree with points yesterday that paying down the OZ debt next year might be the best approach so we have the full volume of Kraken to attack the debt pile in 2021 but that will not be a problem. Looks also like the sale of 15% of Kraken is off the table and I am completely ok with that.

In my opinion, by this time next year we will have the 60p party!

Dont bother with that anyone krak. Its all Trump bull****

Is there anyone apart from trump who believes he is going to Do a deal with anyone? What a loser!! He hasnt succeeded with anything apart from fcuk up the world economy

Who else could screw shareholders and average down their holding whilst tightening their grip on the company. Hopefully he wont revise down the targets as at least that was Woods motivation for not sending our an rns. Although it might be that they target the lower end of the interval. Over promise and under deliver is the way to go.

Hi Northern. Yes - I hope for good news on thursday. Fingers crossed.