Member Info for Squif

Well our pelle. I personally think that ab would be better stepping up to be majority owner only and get a CEO who can market the company properly but that is my opinion. We all have our different skillsets and marketing is not ABs forte

Seems to have hooked up at 3.34 am according to marine traffic

One has to wonder how much he knows about the sp manipulation.

Gkb - there are merits in both arguments but lets see what the cmd brings. Would have thought that ab would have topped up some more last week but maybe rns on monday.

The price development of the sp has been nothing short of disappointing this year however i have Done like ab and accumulated further holdings. It streck me yesterday if enquest can do a sale of 15% of kraken at 350m say that would actually be very good. Even without that i think enquest could still average around 70k next year and then with approximately 30m lower interest payments. That would make it a very interesting proposition. I believe that Oz is in the best position and maybe this debt construct had been a try and buy

Great narrative ahead of the cmd. 550k indicates 50k a day

Hi L3 - I am going to have to pull you up there regarding capex of 15% of kraken. The thing is that Enquest took over 10.5% of Kraken from First Oil in April 2016 at no cost. The capex of 10.5% up until that point had been paid by First Oil. This equated to roughly 130 m usd. So up until April 2016 Enquest's 4.5% had cost approx. 40 m usd. Thereafter the 15% had cost roughly 130 m. In total Enquest has laid out 1.4 bn usd on Kraken. So the capex for this 15% stake is roughly 170 m usd . So the cost base is capex 170 m and finance 8% of 170 m = 47.6 m so the cost base is 217.6 m. If the sale brought in 345 m say that is a return of 127.4 m or 58.5% and when annualised is 12% (over 5 years). The important thing is to get net debt down and 350m would bring end of year debt down to 1.15 bn (or thereabouts) which would be fantastic. That would still leave Enquest with an annualised production next year of 70k boepd now that Kraken is producing close to 45k boepd. Of course Thistle is offline but Scolty makes up for that shortfall. That would make compelling economics ahead of next year.

Fully agree hitman. I would expect 400m usd plus for 15%.

One thing that may come up at the CMD is the potential sale of 15% of kraken and this is a real possibility now that Kraken seems to be pumping on all cylinders and IMO2020 is just around the corner. It may well be that Oz could be the buyer of that 15%and then there would be some cancellation of the debt and a sensible uplift on an asset that is performing really well. That would definitely ease financial pressures on Enquest and hopefully lead to a sp jump. I have been looking at Bumi's sp that has increased over 300% since august when it became clear that kraken issues were sorted. They jumped from 0.16 to 0.525 myr. Their mcap is around 750 USD now.

Good pick-up Pelle. By the way - where is Neil Diamond and members who kept on writing that Enquest was going down as a result of Thistle?

Hi Pelle. Interesting feedback on the 5k extra being 100m worth. What costs are you referring to - capex + Opex + finance overall being down 200m. I still think though 1bn ner debt year end next year but that is definitely worth a rerate. Hopefully news on this next week

Hi L3,
Good points. Just out of interest - what did your analysis of Kraken H1 Oz debt repayment reveal?

I can also agree that lower Capex next year is not a bad thing. I think with Kraken roaring and Scolty potentially back in business we could have a production over 75k a day next year. Nevertheless, kraken capex should be prioritised in the Western Flank in my opinion given the lower capex per barrel.

Agree that debt reduction is prio 1. My targets are 1.5bn year end 2019 and 1.1 bn 2020 year end.

KO - whats your expectations for H2 production? I had not factored in Scolty but with Kraken performing as expected and Thistle off-line I was expecting 75K but this could indeed push us closer to HMH number of 80k. I still have net debt year end at 1.5 BN but see that others are expecting H1 less 80M which puts us around 1.55bn. I would hope for 1.5 bn or below.

Hi pelle. I have been quite silent for a long time now and quite positive. Hope this pays off on the sp. I have been accumulating as well. If this gets to 60p next year i Will be very happy

:-). Yeah I agree with your thinking. Nevertheless, I agree that the interval is impressive and even around 540 thousand barrels after 9,5 days that indicates a production rate of close to 56k a day which is above what was previously conveyed. Personally looking very much forward to what is conveyed at the CMD

Hi mo. Are you able to estimate the size of the load. As i remember someone posting that no had a larger capacity than previous tankers that have visited kraken

9,5 days is still great. May have had a bit in their tanks from last time but around 50k a day is excellent. Hopefully pumping over 75k a day despite thistle and heather

Looking very good production levels from kraken. This more than makes up for thistle. I think that the SP is still pushed way too low as a result of Thistle and hopefully we will get some news of more director buys today and a push towards 21p by the CMD. That at a bare minimum...

Good news pelle. Less than 2 weeks turnaround which is quick. Hopefully the weather is on their side and it can be back to normal operations soon

Its a mystery pelle. I am very suspicious that there is foul play afoot as regards the sp but see that the sp is ludicrously low now