Member Info for Squif

Given that Kraken is pumping somewhere around 45 - 50k barrels a day which is somewhere around 31.5 - 35K net to Enquest - given that Thistle is out of action and Magnus somewhat off the highs of earlier this year - what do others see as net Enquest production right now.

My back of the envelope calcs are - 32k (Kraken) + 8.5k (Malaysia) + 16k (Magnus) + 6.5k (Central NS) + 7k (remainder North North Sea) = 70k. I know people mention Scolty and so forth but regardless we seem to be at the top of our estimates even without Thistle.

Pelle - your enthusiasm is welcomed! Thanks for picking up that. I find it unbelievable that the sp is where it is but that is reality. Assume that AB is not insane so obviously the fundamentals are still in place.

50k per day is unbelievable!

Hi All, Just looking back through the thread and see the last load left on the 19th October. MO and Chilts - any sign of the next tanker bound for Kraken?

Hi londoner
My take before this thistle debacle was 1.5 bn net debt year end. Not sure how this will impact but maybe closer to 1.52 bn. What is not good is that there are constant failures occuring.

Thistle alpha is the platform that enquest is decomissioning on behalf of bp

Good news chilts. Kraken must be averaging 40k+ right now even as high as 46k. I think year average should be close to 35k. Anyone know what Magnus is currently at?

Yes it should definitely happen. It is crazy that enquest as the majority owner has not had any rerate but the partner and operator have. Everything that can be interpreted to enquests disadvantage is Done so.

Pelle - i think you could be right. Look at bumi - up almost 200%. Kraken is cracking! So glad for bumi

Hi pelle - any Idea when the ops update will come. My memory says mid december roughly 3 months after half yearlys. Given maintenance and so forth and understanding that Magnus is not performing as well (l3 posts) i would be extremely hopeful of average production around 69 - 70k. Still target net debt of 1.5 bn year end

Good points pelle. I am sitting tight. May add a few more tomorrow

Something would happen. Look at bumi - up almost 200% after being crushed due to kraken. It is comical that we are still wallowing in the mud after being punished for the same reasons. Time for rerate!

There is a reason why we call Trump numpty. Played again by the chinese - he is soo desperate for a deal as quite honestly he has achieved sweat fa during his term. The iranians wont even meet him so there will be no deal there ...

Hi L3 - great analysis as always. I agree that we should focus on SVT given your points. If another Magnus type of deal was to arise then maybe but i would expect it to be on better terms than Magnus purely from a poo uncertainty perspective. I would not be paying dividends for the considerable future because i feel it is imperative for a proper valuation for net debt to be as close to 1bn as possible. This could well be the case by end of next year. I suspect that average production will land around 68-70k otherwise ab would have adjusted this up.

As regards shale i am expecting as per others comments here that given the significant pullback in Rigs that we will see a significant decline in production by may june next year. I think that sa is bluffing and we will also see significant decreases from sa. If a economic downturn is avoided we could see poo average 70-80 next year and production hopefully averaging 75k

Colebrooke - thanks for highlighting that Info. Looking forward to the update in november but in previous years i remember it coming in december if not mistaken.

Thanks for picking that up KO. Was starting to wonder where NO was

Glad to see that the chairman is stumping up for 500k shares. An industry veteran so that is good unlike jock the sock who was too scared to buy more than 20k shares

More and more i believe that the oil price is being manipulated to serve trumps goals. It is very much like the cds market in 2006-2008 and when it suited market participants they shifted. The bearish news will converge with saudi refinery issues, shale declines and Iran actions.

Great catch. Thanks mo

Krakenoil - i think any true shareholder shares the same sentiments that you, i and pelle express. 5 long years of this s**t! Romoron holds a few 100 shares so for him none of this matters.

Hi L3,
For Alma/Galia I have:
2011: 82 MUSD
2012: 334 M
2013: 461 M
2014: 399 M
2015: 158 M
2016: 50 M

That is 1.484 BN USD in total.