ANTIBODY TEST/SECOND WAVE5 May 2020 11:41
When one sees everyday the number of new cases and spikes recorded in India, Brazil etc., both tests are here to stay for a long time because the antigen test helps locate infected people for confinement when the curve is still ascending (India, Africa, South America etc.) while the antibody test helps to safely release people to work, travel etc. (descending curve in Europe). In any case when people are unlocked if they don't have antibodies - because never infected while staying at home - , a second wave can be triggered as a report from Imperial Colleges shows.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Mobility rise may trigger second wave in Italy say researchers
A report from Imperial College London looking at the reintroduction of mobility in Italy's population suggests it could suffer a second wave of infections and deaths, bigger than the first.
Italians have been living under a national stay-at-home order since 9 March, with everyone required to remain within a few streets of their door.
The BBC's Tom Feilden reports:
This is report 20 from the Imperial team - a sobering read for anyone thinking that things are going to get back to normal.
It looks at drastic measures the Italian government put in and what happens if you reintroduce mobility back into society. It looks at three scenarios: staying in lockdown and increasing movement by 20% and 40%.
Even with the lower figure of 20% of people getting back to normal life, that would be enough to trigger the onset of another wave of infections and subsequent deaths, bigger than the first.
The message is, what you have managed to do is suspend the outbreak - but as soon as you undo lockdown, you run the risk of it flaring up.
The researchers go on to say it is a pessimistic projection and they're not factoring everything in. It is a model, but it doesn’t allow for additional measures like community surveillance, contact tracing and isolating infected people.