The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Thanks Hutiesman….. I will still be following and I have a few feelers out so if I get the right signs I’ll be back like a shot. Sitting on a big loss over at EUA so need to be a bit careful at the minute :)
Hutiesman…. I’m gonna be upfront and say that I’ve bailed out for the time being. I’m still a supporter and will be looking to get back in but, even with the tips I got, I’ve lost confidence. Best of luck everybody
Yeah thought so. It was Maggie Shino, a Namibian Petroleum Commissioner who said the following after Shell made their official announcement about the Graff discovery;
Give us enough time and by May, June, we be able to have enough data accessed to be able to confidently let you know about the quantity we are talking about here,"
The timescale could have changed since then I suppose but, on the strength of this, April 30th seems too early. Thoughts anyone ?????
I think that’s a pretty poor show by GBP. The Shell & Venus timelines have been known for months now and the results were not going to be known by mid-January. By delaying now it implies that by “results” they actually mean the appraisal outcomes. Didn’t NAMCO make a statement that the appraisal results from Shell would be May ? So I’m struggling with the new bid deadline being 30th April…. I’m not sure that there will be any more information available by then to be honest.
All of that said, should commercial viability be confirmed by Shell or Total we would get a much better deal than we could at the moment. So although this is a little frustrating I think it’s a good decision for shareholders.
Bishop… if it helps, the initial 4 year licence is simply coming up to its first renewal in September 2022. Usual procedure is for the renewal to be granted if requested by the holder. I was accused of saying this was a “certainty” a few weeks ago and I accept the criticism. I would say that it is a near certainty though. The PEL29 licence was renewed twice, meaning that it was held by GBP for 10 years before it expired and could not be extended again under Namibian law. Hope this helps :)
I did wonder if that might happen. I imagine the reason is that the negotiations will be clearer after more is learned about the commercial viability of Graff & Venus. So the parties to the bid, on both sides, will be looking for more news from Shell & TotalEnergies following their appraisal work. Being honest, April 30th might still be a tad early ? On the positive side, if Shell or Total bring good news, that would strengthen GBPs bargaining position quite substantially and bring better value for shareholders. :)
I’m really hoping that Shell, TotalEnergies or Qatar are in the frame here. Whilst it’s too early for any of them to have completed appraisal work after their discoveries, I’m sure they’ll have a damn good idea already about the commercial viability at Graff & Venus. If they are sniffing around the shallower waters of Walvis Basin and find themselves competing against each other in the bid, we should get a very good deal. Other companies might squeeze us as they won’t have the benefit of the confidential Graff or Venus findings so would use their uncertainty as leverage. My money is on a deal which includes the Marula drill which would be exciting.
I think you answered your own question *****. GBP don’t have any platforms and have yet to confirm the rumours that they have extended the Namibia licence after Sept 2022. But this creates a situation where there is room for the SP to rise quite sharply upon positive news. This is what we are all hoping for.
With more peace negotiations due over the weekend, it could pay off for you quicker than you think !! You’d certainly be in a better position than most. Good luck… we all want peace, hopefully something sensible can be worked out.
Other areas of focus for AEP are;
- Provide consultancy & support services to African Ministries, National Oil Companies & Regulators to allow them to better manage and coordinate their relationships with International Oil Companies & Technology Partners.
- Collaborate with Seismic Multi Client Contractors, International Oil Companies & financial investors to fully utilise and monetise the bid round.
Why on Earth would PVE need to partner up with a company offering these services ? ;)
So then, two days after the expressions of interest window closed on GBP’s farm- out, their consultants make the following announcement;
“PVE Consulting (PVE) & Africa Energy Partners (AEP) are pleased to announce a strategic alliance for the Africa Region, whereby the firms will work closely to support oil, gas and energy clients and promote exploration and investment opportunities across the African continent.”
AEP state their main objective as being;
“ to maximise the economic recovery of the client’s oil and gas reserves.”
Maybe Jackie is on to something !!!!!
Jackie…. you were bang on the button when you posted about the Graff & Venus discoveries several days before they were reported elsewhere. Regarding the 6 potential farm out partners, you say there are some big names amongst them. I’ve been hearing whispers about TotalEnergies ( hence my previous posts where I mention them). Can you confirm that TotalEnergies are one of the 6 ?? Thank you.
Harel…. I think the order which the RNS’s arrive in will dictate any SP rises. If the first RNS arrives confirming the rumour that the licence has been extended, and no other news, then it would indicate supreme confidence in a farm out partner being lined up. I’d expect an SP rise based upon the licence extension, if such an RNS arrives. Best wishes
Harel…. GBP actually completed all of its contracted work under PEL29. The licence expired in 2020 and couldn’t be extended AGAIN……. “again” being the operative word. By the time the licence had ran its maximum allowable period under Namib law, GBP had it for 10 YEARS !!!! The PEL94 licence will only have been running for 4 YEARS come September 2022 and, whilst it has been adapted once, it has not been extended. Hence the confidence levels being so high. Best wishes
I mentioned last week that TotalEnergies have a very large exposure in Russia which they must be concerned about. They have made a statement today saying that TotalEnergies will no longer provide capital for new projects in Russia.
Given their presence in Offshore Namibia and the enormous discovery they’ve recently made at Venus, I do wonder whether they may be one of the parties rumoured to be interested in the GBP farm out. If so, I could see them going straight in for the Marula drill. Interesting times :)
Delito…. they don’t have the ‘right’ to the extension as such but they were confident that, if they wanted it, it would be granted… they said so in multiple RNS’s. Other companies, in similar circumstances, have also been granted the extension. The main reason, of course, is that at this stage in the 4 year licence, GBP have amassed enormous amounts of data and other information from the work undertaken which put them in the driving seat, especially with NAMCO having a 17% stake not to mention all of the tax revenues which Namibia would earn from a discovery.
It would have been reckless to extend the licence before the Graff & Venus results were known. Far better to secure the extension now that we know Namibia Offshore is gushing with massive amounts of oil. Namibia now knows that it has oil in The Orange Basin, she will be excited to find out as quickly as possible whether that is the same in The Walvis Basin.
On top of all of that, what signal would it send to other explorers if they saw GBPs licence being pulled away from them. They need confidence to keep spending money on their own projects. That confidence would disappear instantly if Namibia had refused the GBP extension.
My understanding is that if GBP want the extension… it’s theirs for the taking (rumour only… not fact). The scenarios being 1) with farm out partner on board… no brainer
2) without a farm out partner… does the news from Graff & Venus give GBP sufficient confidence to raise money for a self-funded 3D seismic operation in the hope that the results pave the way for a much better farm out deal in early 2023.
Also, I suspect that the Graff & Venus results have probably resulted in increased interest in the Marula option which is ready to drill. Namibia might well lean on a major to take up that option with a view to quickly proving up Walvis Basin with its shallower waters & thinner rock formations. Namibia will certainly want to know as quickly as possible just how far their game-changing black gold stretches and what is the most cost efficient way of getting started. Fingers crossed :)