Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
For those who believe in witchcraft, there was a 1 million+ Buy at 12:15 today. This was followed by a flurry of Buys including a string of 911’s (news release imminent). Probably bulls*** but it does coincide with the expressions of interest deadline yesterday :)
Managed to get some clarity on the licence extension….. good news !
Firstly, in order to complete the 3D Siesmic work we do, in reality, need a 1 year extension to the current licence which expires in Sept 2022. GBP have to apply for this extension but it’s granting is a dead cert. It is in Namibia’s best interest to allow the extension but, in any event, it would be granted under force majeure owing to the Covid pandemic disruption. Rumours are that the extension is granted or at least in principle.
Now then, on condition that the 3D seismic is done by Sept 2023 at the end of the extension, GBP then have the option on two further, 2 year renewal periods.
Sorted !
From website, but I think Global should RNS to clarify further (ie. whose option is it to renew, Globals or Namibia’s?) ;
“Current Status
Licence PEL0094: Block 2011A
This was originally granted to Global Petroleum Namibia Limited, a 100% subsidiary of Global Petroleum Limited, in September 2018. The other licence partners, who are both carried by Global, are Aloe Investments Two Hundred and Two (PTY) Ltd (5%) and NAMCOR, the Namibian State oil company (17%). Global has 78% and is operator of the licence. Block 2011A covers 5,798 square kilometres in water depths ranging from 450 metres to 1,550 metres. The licence has an initial exploration period of 4 years from date of award, split into two sub-periods (3 years plus an optional 1 year), followed by two further optional two-year renewal periods.“
Full Upstream article regarding TotalEnergies & Venus…. 3000m water depth is a challenge/ the Venus block is prone to severe weather which caused interruption & delays. And so….. “Exploration potential beyond Venus is equally enticing,”
https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/at-least-3bn-barrels-venus-is-sub-sahara-africas-biggest-ever-oil-discovery/2-1-1174983
Wouldn’t be surprised if TotalEnergies are one of the rumoured interested parties. They’ve got a huge exposure in Russia which they won’t be comfortable with. Would make sense to diversify
The Opportunity
Global Petroleum invites bids from suitably qualified E&P companies to participate in the exploration campaign on PEL94.
Global will prioritise bids which include:
• A contribution to past costs on the licence
• A 100% contribution to the cost of acquiring and processing 2,000 km2 of 3D seismic
• Alternatively a 100% contribution to a Marula well as the company regards the Marula prospect drill-ready, plus further 3D on the block.
Global is prepared to offer a proportion of Working Interest in return for this investment. Operatorship for the incoming party will also be considered.
Delito… there are various deals on offer for the farm out partner. One of them is to fund an immediate drill at Globals Marula prospect which is ‘drill ready’. If a farm in partner goes for that option things could get very exciting indeed.
Three rises… one with licence renewal (which would be an indicator of positive things to come), next one after GBP announce they are in discussions with interested parties, third one when farm out partner confirmed. Will the rises be sustained ? ….. anyone’s guess !
Well, there you have it. Owing to the increasing pressure year on year to move away from fossil fuels, the Namibian Govmt need to make progress very quickly. Excellent for GBP’s licence renewal… GBP hold 4 years worth of research info & data. There is no time for someone else to start again from scratch. Rumours that the extension is granted are very probably true.
One of the problems to the Namibian Govmt is the depth of the discoveries at Graff & Venus which complicate matters and add to ecological concerns. Again, fantastic for GBP who have the same source rock but in much shallower water.
Graff & Venus alone would account for over three times the entire GDP of Namibia in 2020…… I mean, Wow !!
Given the above from Wood Mackenzie, it feels like the rumours of multiple party interest in a GBP farm out could well be accurate !!
I quite like all 3. Being honest, I see GBP as the most likely to have a really big SP rise in the very short term. ECO for a long steady rise. TRP also attractive, dipped in and out of that one as opposed to a Hold position on GBP
…. and by the way. It makes more sense for the majors and for NAMCO, to pick the lowest hanging fruit first. Extracting oil from shallower water is far easier & more profitable than the mega-deep waters at Graff & Venus. With the same source rock at Global, but far shallower water, that makes us a prime target for a major. We already know that the farm-out process is underway…. which includes extending the licence…. but who are we speaking too ??????
My understanding is that the Graff & Venus discoveries have now provided the business justification case to spend money on extending the licence. News of this will come first because it improves GBPs position when it comes to negotiating the best possible farm out deal. Watch this space !
From Global’s RNS yesterday;
Farmout
“On 9 November 2021 Global announced that it had appointed an advisor, PVE Consultants, to assist in the farmout of its Licence PEL 94, offshore Namibia. THIS PROCESS IS NOW UNDERWAY.
I’m expecting 2 RNS in the very near future. One being that on the strength of the Graff & Venus discoveries, GBP have now extended the licence to Sept 2023. The other being confirmation of their being multiple interested parties now in discussion with GBP about farm out deals ( although not revealing their identities). Once again, rumours not facts. Take it or leave it.
As I said last week…. Venus discovery was indeed ‘staggering’. As I said just last night. ‘Job done… news imminent’
The latest rumour I’m hearing is that GBP are already in discussions with potential farm in partners and have applied for the licence extension. Not facts… just rumours but from the same sources as previous….take it or leave it.