Member Info for Sparkle1

thats ok... interesting to me as most BC treatments are endocrine therapy - things like tamoxifen which actually downgrade the interferon response - if you get covid on tamox then its very serious. Thus interesting that Synairgen is upgrading interferon (as that might save your lungs but the cancer might proliferate as the main drugs might stop working) so a bit of a dilemma - being looked at as i write by at least 2 London Teaching hospitals to my knowledge.

Brent.. sorry should have said, the current phase 3 trials have ok'd to give to early stage non metastatic patients to prevent them from going metastatic. Thats the recent thing which will revolutionise treatment...

Hi Brent, there are a few companies... its the holy grail of breast cancer.... in 1st world countries, 1 in 3 early breast cancers do metastasise and become incurable despite the advances in treatment. There are various theories around this, one of which is that the surgery sets off an inflammatory response which causes the cells to immediately proliferate to save themselves; but there is currently no cure for metastatic cancers.
This is a bit geeky but shows some of the companies:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211383520305839

and this is a bit more readable from one of the biggies..
https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/verzenior-abemaciclib-significantly-reduced-risk-cancer

they are also into covid:
https://www.lilly.com/news/stories/coronavirus-covid19-global-response

https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/verzenior-abemaciclib-significantly-reduced-risk-cancer

But there are loads of small companies on the case too...

the mm dont know when the rns will come out either

that might also be the case. I just think they will know who they want to deal with from long experience and they wont just be in it for highest bidder auction which i think is unlikely anyway in current climate. they probably started with a list of one or two companies they would prefer to do a deal with. Or given they say multiple companies in their statement, multiple licensing deals. Or they could be negotiating the patent for Asia with varying asian companies... who knows but all are possible.
the retail investors hold the majority of the company at the moment but only a 3% change will shift that position. All very interesting...
whilst we wait, if anyone interested, just sat through an international medic conference on cancer and some hugely interesting and important stage 3 trials have just completed on CDK4/6 inhibitors which in simple terms are for treatment of early stage breast cancer to stop them going metastatic. Will revolutionise treatment and about to start this winter. So if anyone has spare cash take a look.

having sold a private co to a plc, what also (but not always) tends to happen in many cases is that the buyer will want exclusivity in talks for which they are prepared to pay a non-refundable sun of money so they can look at the company in more detail other than stuff in the public domain. Big pharma cos dont tend to want to have highest bidder auctions. Its quite a lot of work and a small acquisition will take as much of their time as a large one so they would probably rather pay eg £5m for exclusivity and open the books to see what they are letting themselves in for.

Check out eli lilly as a potential suitor...

hold4results, i really like you but that is a dead daft as a brush statement

dont get me wrong... i too am in it to the end - having bought in 2015 and 2017 (£25k ave 17p) but not sure that i agree with what that end point is on some of the crazy numbers on this board. I think the opportunity for this is quite soon not years away to optimise its value but i cant see major pharmas letting it go exponential as some are suggesting on this board. Thats all.

I'm happy to be super pleasantly surprised to the upside... out of curiosity, at what price would you find it hard to NOT sell?

thanks...i guess it depends on when the retail investors cant resist the profit....

founded a private company, sold to a public company on an earn out, merged with another company; sold on to another public company and then took private under PE...so during earn out, re-sold couple more times. The age is only relevant in that at some stage you do need to exit... and the older you are the nearer that is. Unless you want to be Putin or Trump etc etc and to make it this far will have cost them all in terms of time, family, effort, pressure, sleep, you name it. Im in heavily here but i'm not expecting multiple multiples from here. Im expecting it to be sold at a good premium to the current sp but just not at some of the multiples on this board.... not least as when the company is half owned by retail investors, i doubt if it got to £4 or more they will stay in and not take profit. So just a dose of logic - might be wrong but thats my logic.

you may all be right and they'll sell for billions... just my personal view having been in this boat, when you get to eg £40m to retire on and you have been doing it for years etc etc etc i think its very hard to turn down especially if on an earn out so you can cash in and with the potential for future gain as well with less stress and pressure...

Oil: founders in 70's...

absolutely... if they were 40, they'd hold longer for more; but i think they would be happy with a reasonable multi£m deal, satisfaction and scientific awards to boot... the girl who discovered aromatase inhibitors for breast cancer got a nobel... so i think this is going to go for a reasonable price IMHO or on an earn out or multiple licensing deals.
I think the issue they have for wide acceptance is that you also need to know if diabetes drugs, immunosuppresant drugs etc interact. They might. Few papers on this. So the people on Covid who need the most - well it might finish them off. A lot of cancer patients are taking drugs which decrease interferon to start off with... So i've always thought the real prize was COPD as on Covid, there are lots of complications of drug interactions - the people dying are not the 'normal' population. In footie terms it would be like Pogba havign agreed a new contract at Man U before he know they were in Europe. So i don't see much happening until COPD data out. Just a view. Unless the lawyers are doing a deal dependent on the COPD data but that seems a bit unlikely to me - the board are in no great rush are they? They've been doing it for years. Patience required IMHO.

because if you get £40m and you are in your 70's and your kids needs homes and you realise you cannot spend any more in your lifetime, then you might choose to have a great life; spend time with your family, enjoy your grandchildren, buy homes for your kids...

represented 50-60% premium on share price.... normal for a large buyout... and they had 50m in revenue... the issue with small acquisitions is that they take as much board effort as the big ones so whoever buys Synairgen would have to be really sure on how to grow it. Im in heavily here but i reckon it will go for £4 as i cant see the founders in their 70's turning down millions more than they can spend in their lifetimes... but i reckon it will be on an earn out to keep the few guys on board. Thats just my thinking. Appreciate others have other thoughts.

will watch the preview of PSG Bayern then - which will bring more joy to millions in 3 hours than trump has brought to anyone in his life.

if donald trump has anything to do with this share, then i as a shareholder would vote against any such takeover
he is the kiss of death.
and they are looking at bringing criminal charges against his organisation : why do we need him or want him?
he is beneath my contempt and i would think, the contempt of the doctors running synairgen who must see what he is doing to the american population and be horrified.

you can quite easily buy 50,000 at 238... so they must have more stock than they need?