RE: SCP Research29 Jun 2024 16:11
Excerpt taken from the SCP document. “We think Greatland has a unique opportunity to consolidate / acquire a tier one Australian asset now that Newmont deemed Telfer and Havieron non-core in February 2024. The key question is how much value can be ascribed to Telfer, given the operation is currently not producing as Newmont resolves the tailings dam issue (as we understand not a major long-term issue but one that Newmont is being characteristically cautious/prudent to resolve) and with only ~28Mt of resources left at Telfer (US$345m PPE carrying value at end of 2023) but an excellent 22Mtpa processing circuit (two processing trains) that even with one train scaled down to 6Mtpa, could process Havieron ore and save the cost of a new plant. Current activity at Havieron is focused on depressurizing and dewatering to drive through the third of three aquifers before resuming development, as operator Newmont, with Greatland’s agreement, have wisely prioritized long- term value over pushing production timing.
The Feasibility Study, which Newcrest had effectively completed at a planned throughput rate of 3Mtpa from a single decline, is likely now a secondary consideration for Newmont given they are selling the asset. Taking the 44Mtpa high grade crescent zone (4.1Moz Au at 2.8g/t and 165kt Cu at 0.38%) at a production rate of 3Mtpa, we get an NPV5%-2,000/oz (100% basis) of A$2.3bn. Increasing to a 6.5Moz at 2.2g/t AuEq SLOS scenario (likely a decline and a shaft) increases SCPe NPV to A$5.0bn. Updating our valuation, we make our base case 3Mtpa over 44Mt = A$2.3bn on a 100% basis (7p/sh attributable to GGP). We add upside for a 9Mtpa SLOS operation mining a total of 6Moz at 2.2g/t at 0.7x NAV (prev 1x NAV), and A$250/oz for the 2.2Moz AuEq which outside any of our modelled mine plans. We maintain our BUY rating and lift our price target from 14p/sh to 16p/sh. What we like about Greatland is the quality management team and board, a 30% stake in a tier-1 Aussie gold project (>10 years at >225kozpa no matter how we scope it), and financial backing from Twiggy Forrest to build a mid-tier.”
Well these boys still seem to like it, so let’s see what the naysayers have to say now.