Member Info for SpaceHoppa

Hi Pauldrayton, may I ask, where did you hear SM express a sanction opinion date with a connection to Navitas and Shenandoah?

This has been discussed before. Hypothetical situ, $1.3b capex, $1b finance via bonds whatever, Rock wld need to find approx $35m from the existing $300m.

Note capex is now $1.2b.

Obviously amounts vary depending on debt finance, but bottom line is Rock need to find approx $12m for every $100m that is not covered by debt finance.

Not quite nada.

Rock have already received EUR45million so far from selling the award, and are I feel, over 90% likely to receive this year another EUR50+million once the sloth speed of the ICSID wheels reject Italy's spurious annulment case.

Any talk of Navitas/Rock taking over Borders is a non starter I feel LTT for 3 reasons

1.As you say, they have enough to do with Sea Lion.

2. It is not in Navitas's DNA to buy unproven oil fields

3. They can wait a few years until SL is throwing off $100's of millions yearly profit, then snap up Borders, as Borders wont likely have a significant market cap until a lot more work has been done on their acreage.

Hi Silverfoil, we had a little discussion on this a week or so ago, and this was as accurate as I could get it.

With POO at $80, Opex $17/bbl and 40,000bbls/day for first year and using up the $700m tax write offs we have.

$270m NET Rockhopper profit after 12 months

Year 2 with 44k/d. 44,000 x 63 x 365 = 1,011m minus royalty = 920m, minus corp tax = 681m, 35% to Rock is $238m net

Afternoon LTT. Thanks for sharing that conversation with Sam. Leaving FID until after Shenandoah came on stream, or about to, would seem a sensible way to progress, and that may be what happens, however Navitas seem like a company in a hurry.

I guess another way of looking at it is, does Shenandoah production make any difference to Sea Lion FID? The payback of the SL bonds would be post SL production I presume, in 2027 I guess, and any delay in Shen would have been 2 years earlier.

I am coming around to the idea FID will happen as soon as FDP, EIS, bonds, and official nod from FIG happen.

FID Q4 is quite possible I feel 🥳

Thanks, Pre2rcd. He has only 10.5k followers, but everytime the Falklands oil plans gets coverage, probably a few more investors see the huge upside potential. I personally feel FID is 95%+ likely to happen, tho exact timing is less certain. 6 to 9 months is a reasonable guess.

Good to see the SP eyeing up 15pence again, although as I am here for the capital gains from a successful ICSID ruling, the run up to oil production, and eventually dividens, and given Rock looks likely to have its finances covered, then this pharting around low teens doesn't concern me.

EG777,

sadly Chess can't even understand the incredibly simple concept that profits are used to pay off debt.

I've had enough wasting my time reading his nonsense so he joins the other time wasters in filtered.

Perhaps you should tell Navitas to take their "blinkers off" Chess as they currently plan to FID this year.

It's a tricky one though who to give more weight to, you who is a mildly deramping anonymous forum poster who rarely if ever, posts anything of interest, or Navitas who run the show, produce thousands of bbls daily and have another huge 🛢 field almost developed. I'm leaning towards Navitas if I'm honest🤔

Thanks for posting TheTradersFoocus.

I do not see any significant difficulties in funding for the following reason

Life of field cost $25/bbl, 312mmbbls recoverable 2C or $7.8billion

Net profit after the above on 312mmbbls is $11.55billion Maths below.

POO at $80 = 55x312m = 17,160billion gross, minus 9% royalty = 15,615billion, minus corp tax 26% = $11.55billion net profit.

Then we have all the other fields to exploit too. As for the Argies, the huff and puff but can't to a thing about it.

FID is 99% a when question I feel, it's no longer an if.

Hi CitizenTS, re '770m is for Rkh only, not the project'. I do not think that is right as from the Navitas Petroleum Financial Statements of December 31, 2023

'USD 700 million, that can be utilized in the future against a taxable income from the Oil Asset.'

So I feel they benefit as well from the $700m. Always happy to be corrected though.

Chess, my maths were for bottom line net profit.

We ALL know about debt repayment terms Rock will have to use the profit for. Grow up!

Ok, final first year calculations after helpful corrections, assuming phase 1 production average is 40,000b/d (45k is the plan) and costs are $17/bbl as its opex costs only. POO at $80bbl.

40,000bbls x $60 = $2.4M revenue per day, $876million gross profit a year

Royalty on 'turnover' is 9% so $797m profit before tax

( Corp Tax is 26% after the $700m tax write off)

700m with no tax plus 97m with 26% corp tax, is 772m net profit

35% of 772 is $270m net Rockhopper profit after 12 months.

I have no clue as to what Rocks share price would be with 641m shares and a starting profit of $270m.

For the record, year 2 with 44k/d.

44,000 x 60 x 365 = 963m minus royalty = 876m, minus corp tax = 649m, 35% to Rock is $227m

Thanks Citizen, I would have thought royalty was on profit as to tax on turnover, if you are making no profit, would be harsh.

Will check and adjust re opex and above at a later date.

LTT and ancientarcher, indeed, Navitas give me the impression they want to FID asap.

CitizenTS, thank you for reminding me we need to remove first oil Capex of US$7.50

Daikihaku1 thanks for pointing out 'starting from 45k per day. I shall do the maths at a conservative 40k for the first year to allow for delays.

Chess, you clearly are talking out of you rear end as usual. Read and learn.

I shall adjust my maths accordingly.

The calculations with POO at $80 and Opex costs at US$20

40,000bbls x $60 = $2.4M revenue per day, $876million gross profit a year

Royalty is 9%, Corp Tax is 26% after the $700m tax write off

876 -700 = 176

700m profit minus only royalty = 637 profit

Remaining 176m gross profit, minus tax and royalty of 35% = 114m profit. Add to 637m = 751m net profit

35% of 751 is $263m net Rockhopper profit after 12 months.

Happy to see your calculation Chess.

Thanks LTT for making us aware of the Navitas presentation.

I like the FID planned 'during 2024'. Normally they have said end of 24. That remains very positive.

Also I like 'London based team with detailed project execution plan ready to implement upon closing of finance'.

READY TO IMPLIMENT seems like they will pull the FID gun as soon as EIS/FDP and finance cleared.

Production barrels seems to have dropped to 45,000B/day for phase 1.

This still equates to a huge profit for both Navitas and Rock.

Maths until $700m tax write off exhausted, with POG $80 and conservative first year of only 38,000 per day

38000 x 55 x 365 = $762m - royalty of 9%, then 35% to Rock =$243m net profit in 1st year !

Good morning Thenorseman,

I feel the Rock annual report wasn't best phrased in that section. The Nav plan has always been an initial phase 1 to get the ball rolling on a drill to fill bases, then a phase 2 with another FPSO to compliment or replace the original FPSO.

The total barrels recovered increase to stand at 312mmbbls, although Nav are still refining their plans.

Phase 1 and 2 development concept for the Sea Lion field:

23 wells

11 wells in phase 1, with 5 of them pre first oil

12 additional wells in phase 2 approximately 4 years post first oil

Total barrels developed 312 MMbbls

To correct my memory from an early post.

Navitas Petroleum Financial Statements as at December 31, 2023

USD 700 million, that can be utilized in the future against a taxable income from the Oil Asset.