Member Info for SpaceHoppa

Navitas are not known for frequently updating their website, or for that matter, issuing updates in general to the public. I would not put too much store by what is written on their website and I feel, a slip to Q1 2024 is a reasonable possibility. This is not a concern for me as I remember their unwavering commitment to Sea Lion so far.

7 January 2020. Heads of Terms to farm in for 30 per cent interest in the Sea Lion when POO was approx. $60/bbl

30 November 2020. Following the proposed merger of Premier Oil and Chrysaor (now Harbour), Navitas confirmed that it remains committed to the proposed 30% farm-in.

8 December 2021. Heads of Terms signed for Harbour to exit the Falklands and Navitas to farm-in, increasing from 30% to 65% and take over operatorship.

Since becoming operator they have spent 10's of $millions on Sea Lion and have reduced life of field costs per barrel form $40+ to $27.6

FID will almost certainly happen in my opinion, however Q1 2024 is my expectation.

XRK,

as I understand it, for the $4m, we get a guaranteed payment of Eur$31million if ROI win.

We get Eur $65million if case is thrown out, and somewhere in-between if partial annulment.

Regardless of the SP, it's a very positive shrewd move. The SP may be depressed like others are, because some investors are selling prior to Rachel Thieves and FreeGearKeirs budget??

As of 30 June, Rock had $28m in cash

OM decision brings in +$29m from Insurance (minimum)

-$6m for Italy divestment

$51m Approx

I calculate that if Navitas managed $900m from debt finance/ bonds etc leaving $300m needed from equity/cash, then Rock would be on the hook for $35m..

Rock have this scenario easily covered.

I bought some more yesterday.

For the cost of just Eur4m, Rock/Sam have guaranteed that on top of the Eur45m from tanche1, Rock will get after costs, another Eur27 to Eur61million pay-out.

This, together with cash in bank, I feel, will easily be sufficient to cover the costs for Rock to pay for their share of SL costs to first oil. This is a fantastic, prudent move !

Market reaction is weird given the minimum pay out has gone from zero to Eur 31m.

Morning M-D,

I am sure Nav can and have shown FIG enough to keep FIG happily watering at the mouth about the prospects of FID. Whether or not the have all the ducks lined up for FID is I feel, totally irrelevant for FIG.

Navitas are literally the only game in town, and FIG will do everything they reasonably can to help Navitas/Rock get to FID, be that Q4 or H1.

''Probably right - but as Alma has posted FIG will still need proof of funding.''

I disagree.

FIG 100%, without a shadow of any doubt, extend the SL licence whether funding is there or not.

They have extended before with massively less progress. It's simply not an issue !!

Also for what it is worth, 'the main stock market index in Israel (TA-125) has increased 218 points or 11.57% since the beginning of 2024 and as for raising funding, well foreign direct investment (FDI) in June 2024 increased by $5.9 billion, which was an increase from the previous quarter'.

I wish people would stop replying to the sad Muppets I have on filter.

I doubt any Nut Zero activist would give a toss about a legal dispute over arbitration compensation.

It is more likely something like an Italian regional official trying to muddy the waters.

I doubt ICSID will be distracted by any spurious meddling.

What is the rule 37 2 of the ICSID arbitration rules?

Tribunals may accept submissions by non–disputing parties after consulting both parties (Arbitration Rule 37(2)).

A non-disputing party is an individual or entity that is not a party to the dispute, but asks the Tribunal's permission to file a written submission in the case.

We obviously have no idea who this might be, however if I had to guess, I would say it is probably a forlorn stalling tactic by ROI.

Oil is down 10% recently, however HBR production is 50% gas and that is up 30%+

I would have expected that to have had a positive effect on HBR's share price? Or am I missing something???

Corica stoppage obviously delayed things so partially excuse, but one can not argue with that HUM are massively behind on everyone's expectations of when they would be fully ramped up.

Punter,

he makes a point several times to say 'commercial production' end of this quarter or early Q4.

He does refer to FULL commercial production end of year, by which he means doing the full 10,000 to 12,000 oz a month.

There is clearly a difference.

Mr Punter,

volume means nobody knows how producing is currently going, or that nobody cares.

SP is up from 7p to 9p, so you could argue people think numbers will be ok to good.

Betts does miss guidance so that is fair comment, and there is always the chance of more funds being required before Kour delivers.

I think Hum will do ok in Q3, but I am not certain it's balance sheet is sufficient to see Q4 without some extra strengthening.

H1 was 43k oz, Q2 group production was 20k with Q2 Aisc $2600 = dire

However guidance is 115,000 - 145,000.

so around 73k oz expected over 2 quarters at lowest expectations.

BIG IF they hit low end, then perhaps split 30k oz and 43k oz, then Punter,

Aisc will obviously be significantly lower.

Not sure if this has been noted before, but according to their Q2 Report Nav have spent another $16.5m on Sea Lion just

since Dec 23. On Page 14

https://navitaspet.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Navitas-FS-Q2-2024.pdf

From memory, Navitas first wanted in on Sea Lion when POO was $65/bbl and Premier indicated cost per barrel at $45/bbl.

Life of field cost per barrel are now$25/bbl thanks to Navitas excellent work. I feel FIG are 100% behind SL so, the only question left to answer, is how have Nav structured the finance and how much. Rock now have a decent pile in their bank account, however perhaps FID after receiving another wedge from OM monetisation is preferable, Q1 most likely.

Nations join NATO voluntarily. Russia invades and murders to expand.

Also the idea Russia is being "encircled" from Europe is geographically absurd. Its like saying Africa is encircled by the decaying protectionist EU.

Latest Development:

September 9, 2024 - Each Party files a submission on costs.

I personally believe it highly likely, and logical, to believe ICSID will reject the ROI's annulment, and Rock will receive the whole EUR 65m.

It's good XKR2022 to keep us grounded on how much value will be added to Rocks SP on FID but as Superritch also says there are other factors, like how important were those FID's for the companies.

I don't know those examples well enough but

1. how much did they rise the weeks and months into the anticipated FID announcement should be considered, also

2. the perceived ability of the operator

3. the timescales involved

I see little value given to Rock/Sea Lion SP at 14p, however IF Rock get the possible EUR 65m+ from OM later this year, and Navitas keep to their indicated accelerated timescales, then somewhere 20p to 30p is possible as a starter.

The really significant SP increases will come in the year prior to first oil I feel, as is happening to Navitas with their Shenandoah field.

Agree best to ignore, and filter. My list keeps getting longer and it means I don't waste precious time on posters who repeat or add nothing!

Filtered.

ralph2010 Olliesky Kurgan2.0 Trop Michael2021 Godders99 Kurgan3 Bigred7 hydraides Mirasol Smartie06 Decidedleaverage LaticsRule Finley1 OscarIndiaLima TheChessMaster DampSquid1

Thanks Pauldrayton. It does seem a plausible route for Navitas to take. I personally feel FID will be later than Q4 24, however pre Q2 25. Nav do seem in a hurry to get SL into production but delays nearly always happen.