Member Info for SpaceHoppa

Hi LTT,

I am not overly concerned eitherway if a 3rd company joins the Sea Lion gravy train as I can see Navitas are capable in their own right. Most shareholders probably feel FiD will be delayed a few months, however most probably feel FID is almost certainly going to happen.

I am away from my computer but remember a figure of about $650million to offset against profits before paying any tax.

We never know when news will drop but Rock are massively undervalued if we look at the facts and calculate the chances of a positive ICSID ruling and FID in the next 6-12 months. I would happily buy more but have a tankerload already.

Someone replied JEBR, and I agree that the Consocialists and likely incoming Ecolunatic Liebour Gov't, have no tax jurisdiction in the Fkl.

"Re the 75% windfall UK Gov tax you refer to, this does not apply to Rockhopper or Navitas. The Falklands are a protectorate but the UK authorities have no tax jurisdiction and the 75% North Sea windfall tax does does not apply. In fact the Falklands are on of the most tax efficient places to operate in the world for an oil company."

''Funding is also not on that list ''

Not a lot of environmental impact on debt finance I guess.

Nice sleuthing Marunam2 !

Its the same FPSO down to the blue stripes😎

At this this stage one would expect Nav to have selected and LOI'd a FPSO, and to pretty much have finance ready to go. Yeast already mentioned that all long lead items have been ordered.

The timing of FID is the unknown I feel, a when question, not if event.

Can I just add my thanks to Yeast-is-Rising, much appreciated.

On the Navitas website is the Environmental Impact Statement Non-Technical Summary

https://navitaspet.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Sea-Lion-EIS_NTS_FINAL_PUBLIC-CONSULTATION_ISSUE_24062024.pdf

and full summary going into 1,600 pages !!

Of interest in the link above are things like

'It is anticipated that drilling will start approximately 17- 20 months after project sanction' and

'It is expected that ‘First-Oil’ will occur approximately 33 months after project sanction'

So if FID is January 2025, it will be late 2027 for first oil, which would be a nine month slip on the original estimate but still a rapid development and one I would eagerly wait for.

Also

' With regard to oil production, a Field Life of 30 years has been projected and it is estimated that the Phase 1 & 2 Development can recover approximately 306.9 million stock tank barrels'.

Clearly a massive amount of work has been done by Navitas for the EIS and together with news that a bank has been selected, project finance most likely coming from bonds, Rock with $25m plus in the bank etc, things are looking very positive. Going to be a long, but exciting 3.5 years to first oil.

Nothing we do not know of, however good to know it is official.

June 18, 2024 - Each party files a post hearing brief.

Also pondering some maths.

We know Rock have $27m as of now, and I think a 90% chance of another Euro 65million by year end.

Add the two together, take of a bit of admin, and we should have around £75m by year end.

Divide by 640m share in issue, and I get a figure of 11.8pence cash value.

Assuming my logic and data are sound, and with Navitas glaringly committed to developing Sea Lion, then Rocks valuation at 15pence is crazy cheap !!

Have a good weekend all.

The last paragraph was my view, although SM probably thinks the same.

From the 2023 Year End accounts.

'Normal working capital requirements and projected recurring expenditure remain low at only US$4.0 million per annum'

Rock should buy back shares sub 20pence with $7m of that cash 😊

Yup, I'm a HappyInvestor with the news that Rock have

''Following receipt of the Tranche 1 payment, Rockhopper's cash balance is approximately $27 million.''

Samuel Moody, CEO, commented:

"We are delighted to have received the Tranche 1 payment under the Ombrina Mare monetisation agreement. This cash gives us the strongest balance sheet we have had for a number of years

Thats a very decent wedge of finance considering our yearly costs and expectation of another Euro 65million later in the year. Rock shares are I feel, cheap as chips for a Risk Reward investment.

I think all the ingredients are there for us to break through 15pence soon. Navitas are looking as committed as ever, FIG supportive, and now significant money coming in. I added 32,000 yesterday.

The saying, 'a bird in the hand, is worth two in the bush' springs to mind Baldmark.

This monetisation is as you say, a swap from a larger uncertain award, to a smaller more certain award. However I feel the significance of this agreement is being missed by the market.

Rockhopper owed the original legal funder legal fees, a success fee and a proportion of the award, and also the legal costs for the new specialist funder. Today many will feel Rock got Euro15million. That isn't true, they got Euro 45million !

And with that E45m they settled all their debts and monies owed to the original funder, and paid for all legal cost relating to the specialist funder. Leaving Euro15m to add to their balance sheet.

The original unanimous ICSID ruling seemed damning on Italy. It is highly likely by the end of the year Rock will receive another Euro 65million.

One major concern of mine was that Rock would be manoeuvred into a large dilutive equity raise, just before long term SH's could reap their rewards. Now though, Rock quite simple, by the end of the year, could be significantly over monetised to pay for their costs to first oil Capex.

Unless ICSID annul the award, or Navitas get less that $700m in debt finance, of the $1.2b estimated Capex, then there simple may never be another equity raise. Keep those Rockhopper 🐧 shares safe ! !

Regardless of the SP non movement, which is disappointing on such important news, Rock just settled E30m of legal fees and pocketed pre tax another E15m, with a possible E65m still to come.

Market can do nothing, but the money is still going to come.

Lets not.

Lets discuss how significant this is to Rock, how dilution fears have evaporated, how Rock should have more than enough funds to pay their way to first oil and how under valued Rocks SP is.

Clarify - minus 10% tax of the monitisation money

A reminder of what this means

1 Euro 45millions to pay off all legal and success fees and leave Rock with E15m - about 10% tax

2. Euro 65m assuming ICSID throw out ROI's annulment. This is far more than is likely to be needed to pay for Rocks FID costs

3. 20% on recovery of amounts in excess of 200% of the Specialist Fund's total investment including costs. Perhaps another Euro 10m or so.

This is outstandingly great news for Rock. Lets blast threw 15p today please.

This is significant in several ways!

Satisfaction of Precent Conditions for the Ombrina Mare Monetisation Transaction

''All required precedent conditions to the Transaction have now been satisfied. Under the terms of the Transaction, the Tranche 1 payment is due within 5 business days.''

Sells for

14.03p at the moment.

Just keeping a note of the rises we are experiencing. Welcome though 14pence is, it is 15pence that is the resistance we need to hurdle.

14.58pence to buy 100,000

Another perky start. Seems were are creeping slightly higher every day.

ATM can sell 300k for 13.7914pence.

It would only take a high net worth individual, or ii to want 5 or 10million and the SP could rise significantly.

Onwards and upwards

Morning LTT, we have a few weeks to see if FIG are playing hardball, or as some suggest, helping Rock in delaying the OM agreement. I think odds are in favour of a last minute sign off, but it is not certain.

Can sell 300k for 13.6pence atm, over 14p to buy smaller amounts.

Alma

'Tax avoidance is when a person or company *legally* exploits the tax system to reduce tax liabilities'.

This, if it was true, is an excellent legal way to reduce Rocks costs and I commend the board.

However, I suspect it has nothing to do with managements planed tax avoidance, and just the result of a change of operator and farm out.

I doubt FIG have any legs to stand on, if they want Rock to pay tax on a non existent benefit.

On the subject of the OM monetisation, even if FIG do not sign by the agreed deadline, I suspect both Rock and the funder will just extend the agreement, as nothing has changed, to quote the worst PM we've ever had, and both sides can see the benefits. Rock and FIG may have to go to court, or agree binding specialist arbitration to negate the FIG claim if they insist on it though.