Member Info for SpaceHoppa

Indeed Paul, LTT was bang on the money.

One would hope in this case, seemingly quite clear cut, that it's more a few months at the most. FIG are the disappointment for me atm though.

Latest Development:

April 11, 2024 - April 12, 2024 - The ad hoc Committee holds a hearing on annulment in Madrid.

Thanks as always Mogger. Of interest

'‘....on the financial plan that Navitas put together to deliver Sea Lion’ 5.10 minutes

Begs the question, have Navitas already sorted out the financial aspect??

Chess,

1. I stand by my figures as they are based on current POO and Navitas data.

2. 50,000 bbl/d 17,500bbl/d net to Rock is the initial phase. Navitas stated the long term potential for the Basin could utilise up to 3 FPSOs with a total production of approximately 200,000 bbls/d, 70,000bbl/day net to Rock.

3. Your examples are for UK listed companies, who are subjected to approx 75% 'daylight robbery tax' until 2028 I believe. A socialist Gov will likely increase and extend that tax'

4. Your example Enquest Production 43,000 Market Cap. £325mln. ENQ's SP has halved in the last 2 years btw.

Results for the YE 31 December 2023

'Statutory reported LOSS after tax $30.8 million'.

5. FIG are taking just 35% tax and royalties.

6. Rocks estimated debt of $455m to get to first oil will probably be paid off in 2 years of production

7. Navitas/Rock have $700m of tax to set against taxable income, so presumably just 9% royalty to pay for the first 12.5m bbls produced.

I'm in two minds whether you are a subtle deramper, or just trying to trying to lower expectations.

The maths with POO at perhaps .....$85

The maths with POO at perhaps $95 and life of field costs $25/bbl

50,000bbls x $60 = $3M revenue per day, $1,095M a year

Royalty 9%, Corp Tax 26% = $711M profit

Rock 35% = $249m profit net to Rock per year

Rocks current market cap is just $88m !!

I can't speak as to what interest there will be in Rocks shares, but I am mildly confident the Market Cap will be multiples of the yearly $249M profit, and so will the current share price, regardless of what exchange(s) it is listed on.

I don't know about selling 1 share for 10.26pence, but I could sell over 200,000 shares for over 13p earlier.

The hardest part of owning Rock shares is waiting for news. Navitas are a very tight lipped bunch until they have something worthwhile to say. However I have almost zero doubt SL will get the green light, as Navita's business is to wait until others have done the hard risky expensive work, in Rocks case over a £billion, and then come in to finesse the project to sub $25/bbl life of field costs.

They've spent many $millions on this finesse and have identified available FPSO's, increased 2C resources from 269 to 312 MMbbls are asking for contractors to provide EOI for accommodation and storage facilities etc. I feel confident the future is very profitable for Rocks shareholders, however after 14 years waiting, knowing it's so close to actually happening, is quite a challenge to keep the calm patient persona!

I posted previously that I'd bought 65,000 shares a few weeks back hoping to ride the acquisition pony and it has provided a £3,500 profit so far.

Purely fore the record, I sold 15,000 today to take profits and as I am looking at another, more binary investment to ride.

I think Cnr could easily have a further 10 to 30 pence further to rise, so will try to keep my remaining 50,000.

As a side comment, to echo another, with POG at $2,340 or so, I can not understand by JM wouldn't just buy, or fund the mine to production himself. He is a patient man and this route would bring him many times more millions of profit !

Thanks as always Mogger, and no, I do not believe we have seen that. It seems to be a complimentary EOI after the accommodation EOI request that you also posted. Sea Lion is so going to happen. Keep hold of those shares!!

**** f)All areas must be operational by the third quarter of 2025.

1) Provision of a committed and secure Supply Base, ideally including areas for office space, external deployment and warehouses, some with shelving and temperature controlled.

a)Office space for up to approximately 25 people.

b) External deployment area will require around 80,000 square meters.

c)Total area required for storage around 10,000 square meters

d)Duration of the requirement will be a minimum period of two to six years (with the option of extension in time)

e)All areas need to be dedicated to the sole use of facilities with standard patterns, appropriate drainage and safe perimeters.

f)All areas must be operational by the third quarter of 2025.

Ralph2010 Olliesky Kurgan2.0 Trop Michael2021 Godders99 Kurgan3 Bigred7 hydraides Mirasol Smartie06 Decidedleaverage LaticsRule Finley1

''Gut feeling it will all end in tears, and no Lire will ever cross hands''

-----------------------------

Keep up old chap.

The award has been sold on, monetised for many 10's of €millions, subject to FIG snail pace sloth approval.

Just having a look at Navitas's end of year accounts and noted

'Navitas Petroleum Development and Production Ltd NPDP ~ has past investments in the (Sea Lion) Oil Asset for tax

purposes in the total amount of approx. USD 700 million, that can be utilized

in the future against a taxable income from the Oil Asset.'

So presumably just royalties to pay for the first 12.5m bbls produced.

It would seem the sensible way to go BT, although that doesn't mean management won't balls that up as well.

For now getting ore dug and processed, whoever does it, is all that matters.

I suspect that whoever is supplying the 5th fleet, has also been tapped up to provide additional fleets, perhaps with a possibility of becoming the main contract miner.

January, the debt went up solely because the mine was built and so far, for various reasons, Hum management have failed to extract and process significant gold to process and bring down that debt.

Kouroussa has been an epic failure so far!!

The question is can management turn this debacle around before needing to go cap in hand to Coris, or the equity markets again? I don't know if they can, although I am sure they are desperately trying to. The one fleet still working is a slight silver lining however obviously insufficient.

Lost as in

'left it on a bus' or lost as in 'my neighbour lost £30,000 building a nice extension'.

Or lost as in

'spent it on the Kouroussa gold mine infrastructure to build an asset?'

BlooBird, I, my partner and a friend own 780k shares in HL, so probably it is not their general client base, as I assume it would be much more than 29m.

It could be either. China have the gold bug appetite, and money to snap up Cnr without flinching.

Calibre are the best fit on the ground.

Management are probably trying to play the two off, so if I was a betting man, then managements comments about meeting the Chinese, could be a ploy to get a better deal, or hurry up Calibre.

My money is slightly on Calibre.

Thanks for being honest about your investment, honesty is not common on Aim shares.

Rest assured many have lost as much, if not much more, especially those that moan and troll the forums the most!

Good luck.

Replying to trolls, and their derampy headlines, just gives them a boner. Stop messing enabling their desires!!

Here is a factual brief 3 year history of Navitas’s COMMITMENT to Sea Lion.

In my opinion at every step, it just confirms their unwavering desire to get SL into production, and as soon as practicable possible.

7 January 2020. Heads of Terms to farm in for 30 per cent interest in the Sea Lion when oil was approx. $60/bbl

30 November 2020. Following the announcement of the proposed merger of Premier Oil and Chrysaor (now Harbour), Navitas confirmed that it remains committed to the proposed 30% farm-in.

23 September 2021. Harbour Energy decide not to proceed with the Sea Lion project.

8 December 2021. Heads of Terms signed with Harbour to exit the Falklands and Navitas to farm-in, increasing from 30% to 65%.

19 April 2022. Navitas signed legally binding definitive documentation in relation to Harbour exiting and Navitas entering and become operator.

Just 11 month later…..

23 March 2023.

Navitas publish Sea Lion development progress.

Pre first oil capex: US$1.3B

Per barrel cost - life of field US$27.60 (Down from Premiers $40+/bbl)

Expected recovery of 269M bbls

FID during 2024, 2.5 yrs to first oil

10 months later……

22 January 2024.

Navitas have identified suitable and available FPSOs.

Pre first oil capex reduced $100m to US$1.2B

Per barrel cost - life of field reduced from US$27.60 to US$25

Increased oil recovery from 269 M bbls to 312 M bbls

Reiterate FID in 2024, first oil at the end of 2026.

9 Feb Thanks to Mogger.

Navitas development and production logistics manager Tom Campbell talked about the company’s vessel requirements to support the development of the Sea Lion field

“We will start chartering vessels in Q4 2025,” said Mr Campbell. These will support a harsh-environment semi-submersible drilling rig.

22 Feb Thanks to Petejay74.

Navitas calls for Expressions of Interest in support of infrastructure projects, which are the first in a larger multi-stage procurement process. At this stage Navitas requests accommodation for short-term then for long-term personnel for the operations themselves. The notice allows more than 400 workers to be added.

The duration of the above requirements will be for a minimum of five years and options for another five. They must be operational by the third quarter of 2025.

Was a buy, mine. Thought I'd stash my cash here either until the mine gets sold, or I want the cash for something else.

Hopefully I have timed my purchase, and caught the asset sale about right.

All the best.