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Thats certainly true for the vast majority. Doesn't change the factually incorrect statement below, although it probably feels like a one way spiral downwards.

Maths are easy enough to see assuming Hum achieve anywhere near guidance. Question for most is do Hum have the ability, and luck, to achieve it?? Many are rightly sceptical !

It was sub 7pence last October, how does it spiral neverendingly 'downward' to 9pence?

Asking for a friend.

Hi LTT, yes, I see what you mean and agree.

LLT, you wrote ' it is almost a certainty that the adhoc will rule in our favor~

With that in mind we should be €80m the richer by the end of the year, 15m by the end of June at the latest. The other €65m coming 6-9months after, maybe sooner'

If I may be so bold to correct this. I contacted Rock regarding payment timeframes, and the second tranche will be payable on just the arbitration win.

''Should we win annulment (Italy loses) then we will receive the additional 65 million euros basically immediately from the new funder, no need to wait for any recovery''

''the calibre of government ministers at present, embarrassing and shameful.'' --- I agree although

Labour, 'hold my coat'.

Anon, I'll stay on topic like yourself.

Since June 2016 and up until the end of the second quarter of 2022, OECD data shows that the cumulative growth rate of real GDP in Italy was 4%, in Germany was 5.5%, in the U.K. was 6.8% and in France was 7.6%.

Germany is virtually in recession.

Eurostat published the aggregated EU debt amounts to €16 Trillion.

EU's share of world trade is shrinking fast

It's parliament is almost 100% Caucasian------ all this is also down to Brexit obviously.

Oh, & Hum are yet again dancing on financial banana skins because of their inability to extract gold and their underestimation of the artisanal miners abilities, which so far has exceeded HUMs !! Hope that was on topic enough for you.

Nobleman, as long as we get the green light to $200m net profit a year, then I'm not too concerned if SM does nothing other than keep Rock financially safe whilst Navitas do the heavy lifting.

SM has a deal that derisks OM bringing in between $45 to $100m plus. He needs do no more than help Navitas, FIG and SL get over the line.

It’s hard to imagine that Navitas have gone to this all this detail, trouble and expense to not want proceed with FID. Also, this far advanced they will have a good idea where finance is coming from, who, if anyone will partner, and realistic timeframes. It is encouraging they still repeat FID 2024/1st oil late 26. I expect both will slip, perhaps by 6months.

Some talk recently about what share price Rock might achieve in the coming years. If we assume FID happens and plans are similar to the latest update, capex $1.2b circa 50k bbls/day, costs $25/bbl, POO $75/bbl, taxes and royalty remain same, Rock maintain 35% as restated, then doing some maths.

Costs net to Rock are $420m. 50k bbls/day suggests Rock net profits per year $207m. So Rock could be debt free by late 2029, with yearly profit of $200m, and another 15 years life of field on just Sea Lion alone.

Question. If the above came true, and I feel it is reasonably realistic, by comparing with peers, what would be the expected dividends per year, and how much would such a company worth?

Don't believe all you see on Remainer TV Anon. Just yesterday

Representative to UK sees Brexit as beneficial for Taiwan. New envoy hopes UK will become Taiwan's largest European trading partner.

Certainly reducing royalty will make SL even more attractive, however with current plans of

50,000bbls/day,

break evens at sub $25

oil $75/bbl

50,000 x 50 x 365 = $912m gross

9% royalty 26% corporate tax

912 - above = $593m net profit a year

Throw in 2C resources of 312 MMbbls so life of field 17 years,

17 x $593m = $ TEN Billion profit NET

There should be more than enough incentive to develop SL at current royalty %

35% to Rock is obviously $3.5billion. And there is an additional 'Development Unclarified' C2 479m bbls waiting.

Rock market cap ------ $90m !

Although on paper, Rock is a sitting duck for a TO, Im not convinced it would be that easy, as I feel FIG want a British company involved, and Rock have a unique position with regards over a decade building a constructive relationship.

WRT the SP, it is definitely frustrating given the very high probability of FID, and in 4 years we could be getting dividends higher than the current SP !

However it is what it is, and we are nothing if not a patience bunch.

Thanks Citizen and yes, should have written ‘’Per barrel cost - life of field’’

Brent knocking on $80per barrel, per barrel cost $25, 50,000+ bbls per day

(80-25) x 55,000 x 365 = $1Billion gross profit per year.

FID is sooo going to happen !

Gross capex required to first oil has been reduced from US$1.3 billion to US$1.2 billion

Capex of approximately US$8 per barrel

Opex across life of field has been materially reduced to under US$17 per barrel

Lower risk project with a break even under US$25 per barrel (Per barrel cost - life of field)

List was until the end of January or up to first major news release. I would say

the reduction of Opex to $25/bbl

2C resources in the overall NFB have increased from 712 MMbbls to 791 MMbbls

with a 16% increase in gross 2C resources from 269 MMbbls to 312 MMbbls

Navitas having identified suitable and available existing FSPO's

gross capex required to first oil has been reduced from US$1.3 billion to US$1.2 billion

counts as significant news, even if the SP hasn't yet reflected this.

Sadly but the guesses are fixed now.

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I feel the Tories and Sunak are absolutely shiiite !

Problem we have is Stammer and Liebour are even shiiiter !!

It even says so in the RNS,

"Derisks the arbitration process"

Others may disagree but I feel it seems unlikely either side can back out just on what ICSID may or may not announce. There is a clause to back out but its a date deadline.

It is also unlikely FIG will give a fig about this deal as it does not affect them, and they want Rock financially healthy to progress SL. Logically thinking they'll 99% sign it off within the timeline.

Tony, the bit you are missing is that the JV would require 300m, Rock need to fund 35% of that, and Navitas are loaning 2/3rds of our 35% contribution.

Art123

Basically this is the terms agreed

Navitas to provide loan funding to Rockhopper:

The majority of Rockhopper's share of Sea Lion phase one related costs from Transaction completion up to Final Investment Decision ("FID") will be funded through a loan from Navitas with interest charged at 8% per annum (the "Pre-FID Loan"). Certain costs, such as licence costs, are excluded.

Subject to a positive FID, Navitas will provide an interest free loan to Rockhopper to fund two-thirds of Rockhopper's share of Sea Lion phase one development costs (for any costs not met by third party debt financing). Certain costs, such as licence costs, are excluded.

So for example if $1.3bn (capex) and $1.0bn (finance) we would need a gross JV equity contribution of $300m. We are on the hook for 35% of that which is $105m but we get 2/3 of that in the Navitas loan leaving us with $35m.

Throw in a ''16% increase in gross 2C resources from 269 MMbbls to 312 MMbbls out of overall 791 MMbbls''

& $10million in cash as of 31 December , excluding the OM award,

and Rock hasn't looked this good an investment for a decade.

'Against a background of continued industry cost inflation, gross capex required to first oil has been reduced from US$1.3 billion to US$1.2 billion with a capex of approximately US$8 per barrel and opex across life of field has been materially reduced to under US$17 per barrel, providing very robust economics and a lower risk project with a lower attractive break even under US$25 per barrel (compared to the US$27 previously reported).'

''Navitas has identified suitable and available existing floating production storage and offloading ("FPSO") vessels and is actively working with leading industry vendors to secure all long lead equipment, continuing to target Sea Lion phase 1 Final Investment Decision ("FID") in 2024 and first oil at the end of 2026.''

Sea Lion is soooo going to happen ! :-)