The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Can anybody advise. Have the company or Dr Dilly ever indicated before that finance is ok only to then place? What working capital is likely to be left to keep the lights on? IMVHO yesterdays BRR discussion is that it’s basically a repeat of the same discussion on 5th January. Why trust now? TheoremRx have had nearly 5 months to raise this money. The US is awash with it and the market conditions should not have prevented this. It is a very lame excuse. Has anybody considered if TheoremRx fall short on the raise that Valirx may make up the difference by a raise themselves?
Those with rose tinted glasses should reflect on the balance others tried to offer. Todays announcement is grim, no matter how you try to justify it. It’s breached a long stop deadline. The second deadline missed. How can we trust TheoremRx. How can we trust Valirx who stated full of confidence and unconcerned. It’s an utter mess. The finances must now be a primary concern. IMVHO a placing is imminent. This will be the double whammy I spoke of. And America is awash with money. So market conditions are challenging but this was not unachievable in the time they’ve had. It makes me question TheoremRx competence. 201 viability. Valirx judgement. Today will be awful. But it’s likely to get worse until finances are resolved.
This looks like the start of the drop I anticipated. People de-risking before the deadline. I hope the company update now and don’t wait until the deadline passes. Not looking good.
PM, not much downside you say. I find that an astonishing comment. IMVHO company credibility will be hit. Finances will be stretched. Expansion plans of a lab will mean funding potential is more extreme. 201 will look to have questionable potential. I am dreading a no deal leading to a substantial share price hit and a double whammy with finance needed.
Still no news. They have a duty to report a deal. So it cannot be signed and sealed. If it was so certain why would any reasonable partner take it to the wire. The signs look far from good.
Some are convinced it’s all good. What if it’s to deflect or explain a deal failure / delay. Or to deflect away from 201. Or to discuss plans to fund a lab. Or simply because they promised them every quarter. If the deal was signed and sealed they have to announce this to the market. The fact they haven’t means it’s not yet. And that means time is running out. Failure will hit the share price hard. And finances will be needed sooner than later. That’s why I favour the unpalatable. Place before failure unless it’s guaranteed success and nothing can be signed and sealed in that regard yet. Hence my preference to place now.
Many here have rose tinted glasses. For instance; PM posted yesterday; ‘32-35p prediction tomorrow if the deal does not arrive at 7am.’ Yet the sp never even reached 29p. Now just 8 days left. IMVHO the selling will intensify as the deadline approaches.
Any failure or delay would impact:
Company credibility.
Finances.
People would surely question 201 as a long term viable product.
Anybody prepared to accept this?
PM, yep they said the same last quarter. Positive tweets right up towards the end of December. But guess what happened. No deal signed off and a delay announced on 5th January. The share price plummeted. IMVHO the same is likely this quarter. 4 - 5 months to conclude the deal. And you expect it in the last few days. Some might say you are overly optimistic. For balance please answer the following questions. What share price do you predict if no deal or delay? How much cash do you think they need to buy a lab? And how much to keep the lights on?
If no deal is likely the company should place now whilst the share price is inflated. No deal or a delay will smash the share price. Finances will be a major concern. Better to place high. I welcome a placement now to prevent a free fall beyond 31st March. IMVHO finances are low and the ambition of a lab needs heavy cash injection. No point waiting for bad news. IMVHO with the deadline fast approaching there is now a 90% chance of failure or delay. 10% chance of success but even then finance to support the Lab ambition will be necessary. Clear the path either way. By the way some very good posts on another investment debate site. Worth a look.
Only one full week left. If no deal by this time next week. I don’t think the sentiment will be as bullish. It’s really down to the wire. Hope is all we have left.
Another week without the deal. How an earth is that a good week. Short term spike agreed. But a total disaster if no deal materialises in 9 trading days.
I predict 37.5p on a deal. The price will not rise to much due to the lab ambition. That’s going to cost.
Team, You go first on the no deal and then I’ll give you my prediction on a deal.
Seeking balanced perspective on a no deal outcome. Any prepared to offer a view? I’ll start. 17.5p initially and then drops further based on finance concerns. Settling at about 12.5p. I predict that a placing would then see a single digit share price. Just a prediction. Upside on a deal for sure.
Remember they gave a strong indication of the deal happening in 2021 including tweets in late December. Only to RNS a delay in the deal news on 5th January. Any failure now including a delay would not be good. Just 9 days left.
OB, my rationale is as follows:-
1) The fundraise to date has not completed the deal. They’ve had 4.5 months. So why should they achieve something in two weeks that they haven’t managed to yet.
2) the company have given themselves a way out of blame. ‘We did what we could but ultimately it is out of our control’. They will defer blame to TheoremRx if this doesn’t happen.
3) TheoremRx remain in the shadows. Why not be more open.
4) the investor meeting on 6th April could be a way to deflect blame and discuss other products.
Mainly I have lost confidence. Two weeks is not long. I don’t think it’s going to happen. I expect a massive reduction followed by a fundraising leading to another massive reduction. All just IMVHO.
If balance were permitted. Many here surely would accept they’re nervous. As each day passes the nerves will grow. 10 opportunities of a deal before the deadline is missed. I predict a decline in the share price every trading day that passes without a confirmed deal. If the deadline is missed I predict a massive share price hit. I do accept the deal might arrive but IMVHO increasingly unlikely.
My posts saying deal is not a certainty and the SP will drop on such an event keep getting deleted. Be careful investors. I don’t think a deal is likely.
Lots of talk re the share price on a deal. Yet nobody is offering any balance at all. What share price if no deal? Nothing has changed. Except we are nearer the deadline. Will people be as upbeat if no news by end of next week. I don’t think so.