The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
One thing I would say. If we get to 1st April and no deal or they announce a problem with it the SP will tank. Then they will need finance. So before then if there is a reasonable chance that’s going to happen they should raise money now. Better to do it with a strong SP than to do it when much weaker.
We are now 1/2 way through the quarter. We might see shareholders taking a 50/50 position to reflect the huge upside of a 201 deal or the reverse of no deal. This way people benefit from the rise and buffer a fall.
We are past the concept of the long stop now. I expect some are nervous. Me too if I am honest.
Tomorrow will test the market, no stock will be unaffected. IMVHO the market will be 5-10% down as war is considered inevitable.
The day it starts probably another 5-10% down. It’s grim but won’t define Valirx short or long term.
Once this licensing deal is confirmed as I am certain it will be. We have a big fish in our midst. The point just made by multibagger is bang on. It gives Valirx enhanced credibility.
125-150% rise is coming very soon and that’s only the start.
What a difference a day makes. I have just watched the presentation on YouTube.
Super confident and happy. Lots was discussed and actually only a brief reference to the legacy strands, which I feel shows the strength and diversity of the Valirx portfolio and her outline of the strategy was really very good - even with the legacy projects put to one side this is a very good and strong investment.
Though to hone in on the Val 201 sub licensing deal.
- TheoremRx ‘are fundraising’ to complete the licensing deal.
- We are working with TheoremRx on a regular basis to help set up the next clinical trial and are ‘very active’ on this basis.
- We are ‘very confident’ we will be able to talk about that before to long and in more detail.
Any doubts of mine have gone. Somebody mentioned her body language earlier. I agree, it looks so confident and she considers this a formality and I believe it will be announced within Feb (which supports her long stop reference re end of Q1).
I believe a trading pattern will emerge soon. This is a tight ship so I reckon we will have only a day or so of a substantial rise before it’s announced.
IMVHO the deal is a certainty now and as such this is a very strong buy. Take your position early. The first mover wins here - nobody will be selling post a deal and those buying will be paying at least double what you could get them for today.
MB
Totally with you re investor engagement. However the fact she doesn’t know or appear to know what is happening causes me some added nervousness.
It looks like the yanks are not the best at communicating and Valirx are in the dark.
Still 80/20 in favour of a deal.
Slightly nerve-racking tweet from the CEO today. I would rather she knew what was happening and badgered them to find out. I’m more 80/20 in favour of a deal now than my previous 99.5%. She said the following
Timing is out of my control! But I haven’t heard otherwise. If I do hear that timelines have changed, I’m obliged to update the market, so you’ll hear as soon as I do.
I really hope sellers are not put off by the likes of Porky. He keeps twisting the knife re the placement potential.
Yes we know the finances are stretched and if the deal doesn’t materialise a placement is inevitable either late this quarter or in Q2.
However the word is ‘if’.
I still think the downside is short term pain followed by large upside - even if a deal isn’t delivered (0.5% chance of this).
Lots of potential. Lots of expectation. An exciting time to be invested here. Let’s break 30 and head towards 40 as we await the licensing deal. Be careful not to get spooked. Work off company announcements. I’m 99.5% sure the deal is coming. What a day that promises to be.
Buy / Hold
I figure this is why selling has dried up. Who would sell now. When this close to news. It’s almost worrh daring traders to sell. They will be nervous doing so. This makes for a good investment position with sentiment improving and anticipation growing. Nervous sellers = a share price increasing.
I’m 99.5% certain the deal is coming. IMVHO that will lead to 125% or more rise. So in a sense it doesn’t matter but we all like a bit of blue to make us feel better. I think we will be feeling a lot better in the days to follow.
The CEO we have no concerns comment. Think about it. It shows Suzy is continuing to work with TheoremRx scientists in prep of the trial in which Valirx are being paid consultancy fees. IMVHO Suzy would also be in regular contact with Ken Sorensen the chairman (re progress of their funding arrangements towards completion). Beyond the tweet the risk v reward levels moved very much in favour of buying. I’d expect the doubters to sense the movement and get on board pre news. First mover advantage is key on stocks like Valirx. More than doubling your money if it comes in. All the indications are it is.
But/Hold
Investors and Traders need to have patience. As I see it. The decision is:-
Buy/Hold if you believe the 201 deal is coming.
The science works (and does not have side effects and is easy to administer and manufacture). In a field where we desperately need medical solutions.
SD is completely trustworthy and has stated as recently as yesterday she has no concerns re the deal and has previously been very confidence.
TheoremRx are credible (look at their Chairman who has commercialised many small bios and raised over $1 billion previously)
They’ve extended the worldwide patent via the independent CRT.
Valirx are being paid consultancy fees and have been since 1/11/21 to help prepare the trial in the UK.
A huge amount of work would have gone into this to get it this far - why would they walk away?
Patrick Frankham congratulated both TheoremRx and Valirx and within his LinkedIn bio references 300m investment fund and shows projects as TheoremRx FY 21/22.
Consider Selling - if you don’t believe the deal is coming.
But what is the downside? Valirx has a value. They have other options. Many other products. And are widely considered to be markedly undervalued for what they have now and should already be valued higher even without a deal.
Investment is about patience. I’m 99.5% sure the deal is coming. Which is why I wait patiently for the announcement and the growth in my investment value. The upside just on the deal is likely to be at least 125% from here (short term) and much much more long term.
With this background IMVHO it removes all doubt that the 201 partner fundraise is not achievable. It also adds significant credibility to TheoremRx as a partner to be associated with and their validity of successfully running the next trial.
This a very strong buy. Short term inflection point about to materialise (top slice at this point more than 2x current price) and then hold for the next success (either legacy projects or new strategy implementation).
‘Ken Sorensen the Chairman of TheoremRx has previously successfully raised more than $1 billion of capital to support translational research and to enable new biotechnology companies to move from scientific concept to commercialized products.’
I’ve personally felt the 201 sub licensing deal would be February since the announcement on 5th January. There are no trading dates left now until then. At this level IMVHO this is an astonishingly good investment based on risk v reward principles. A trusted CEO has stated this quarter and indicated end of Q1 was an absolute long stop.
The licnensing deal more than doubles the return of anybody investing at this bargain basement price.
Patience wins out. Buy/Hold
L2 has weakened but hopefully improved buying next week. Disappointing. I’m switching off for the weekend.
Today’s trading really should prove a lesson to some people. I suspect it played on the nerves of some. Some may have sold in panic. Just at a time when we expect an announcement that doubles or more the SP. It’s a classic pattern before mega news. There is risk in Valirx but my goodness the rewards dramatically outweigh the risk. And the likelihood of success is dramatically greater than failure. There are actually not a huge amount of trading dates left this quarter. Anticipation will build and this will trade up. It moves so quickly on so few trades (post the news my goodness shares will be hard to secure). So don’t get fooled into trading out through minor SP deviations. Look at the company announcements , which are credible and showcase the next phase of success and ensure you have patience. IMVHO patience will be rewarded and rewarded greatly.
I have taken my position and watch events safe and secure with my holding. If it trades up or down, my position won’t change until the 201 deal lands as I believe it will. Then the rewards will be vast. So I will hold and not act on any deviation at all.
Buy/Hold.
Many people have been talking about the SP with their own predictions re the future and the possibility of a SP ranging between 65-85p on confirmation of the 201 licensing deal. Well lets pause to ponder that. Why might this share rise dramatically? Because there is significant risk. Why might you invest? Because you think you have a better appreciation of that risk reward than the market. What makes you think that? For my part I think the market is misjudging the risk reward and there is a lot more reward and less risk than is being priced in. When will that valuation turn? Probably very quickly once the key risks disappear (eg 201 deal announcement which is expected Q1 and could arrive much sooner than March). But if I can invest at this price it is because those risks are currently still there.
And I might be getting my assessment of risk reward wrong and the market might be getting it right!
Personally though for reasons I’ve previously articulated I expect to be a lot better off by end of Q1 and then again later as the company further deliver. We have a huge growth opportunity but risk remains. It’s just I think the chance of success is notably more likely than the risks materialising. IMVHO a strong buy.
I’d agree that the current price is bargain basement. By the end of this quarter and probably far sooner IMVHO we will be at least double the position now. With a platform to kick on further with other aspects of the strategy and company strands delivering.
Sorry if any other poster thought I was Porky. I’m not. My views remain the same. Just because I’m a new poster doesn’t mean I don’t have a clear view on the investment position. I believe I have. I remain extremely optimistic for reasons articulated.
I am extremely optimistic about this investment even though I’m currently under water with an average of 38p after initially buying in at 49p and subsequently averaging down. I believe Valirx have a major inflection point approaching. The Val 201 deal looks highly likely. That tells me Valirx have really credible science to back up the stage 2 trial. That gives me confidence Valirx will not only secure a sub licensing deal but also will in time secure the gigantic rewards of market approval. There is a market gap and Val 201 can fill this and do so with no side effects making it desirable.
My target ambition summary.
- We have a short term inflection point re the licensing deal. My expectation is a price that settles (it may spike higher) of between 65-80p. During this range I will top slice and keep the remaining for the steps below and into the long term (a free ride).
- beyond the TheoremRx led trial with success the SP would make many here very rich. It’s hard to predict at this early stage what it might reach and with other products delivering but on this alone - my target is £3 to £5 with 201 market approval. Probably more.
- other inflection points are 201 strands different to prostate cancer being taken on and developed. They benefit from TheoremRx success. Again all adding high value.
- 301 & 401. With one partnering success the numbers would be similar to 201 above.
- I also think the company will become profitable with its new pre clinical strategy - where it will identify cheap products and sell / sub licence to partners for the next stage. No more lengthy and costly trials. Cash generative and quick wins with potential long term substantial royalties and milestone payments.
It does feel like this company is about to reach new highs.