Member Info for Soupdragon78

You'll have to put it Fill or Kill if they won't deal it in the open market.

damn autocorrect, should read Mafuta not madura.

Madura, what’s the share price got to do with the listing?
It’s not difficult, it’s even in the RNS!

Thats good, funded sorted now.

Short term news expected now on Innovate Grant and also Oxilio licensing.

Followed by NXP004 research update and also NXP002 commence feasibility study to achieve completion by around August

Not expecting any holdings announcements from the placing participants, 78m shares will be admitted on Tuesday and with around 30 parties taking part in the placing that would mean less than 1% each. So not notifiable.

In the absence of posts this weekend, I’m hoping for some positive news on the Innovate Grant.

The Allenby note identifies that developing the data packages for NXP002 is circa £2m. Hopefully the funding will go some way to covering this, plus any Oxilio licensing monies.

They also have a good couple of lines on the potential.

“ we calculate that NXP002 could command combined peak sales of £1bn in major markets. ”

“ The de-risked global value of NXP002 in IPF is £528m, which illustrates its total value potential”

No worries Chab, I get where you're coming from, although I've always seen those deals as small fry that keeps cash flow going. As I say, with an annual cash burn of circa £1m its good for them to cover that, leaving placing money for proper research work to achieve the bigger targets of NXP002 & 004.

In the short term I'm hoping for news on Innovate and then a conclusion to the NXP001 licensing with Oxilio.

Chab, the other point is, things change over time and as you say 'significant' is a subjective word so could mean many things.

At the time NFX had say £100k in the bank, so an upfront payment of £200k is 'significant'. But now with £1.4m in the bank, is £200k deemed 'significant'?

FX, the initial RNS may have said 'significant' but it is superceded by the half yearly and recent update plus the broker note, none of the later documents refer to the upfront payment being significant, so not relevant.

Ridiculous isn't it FX. At least on Tuesday we know DT will have to TR1 as the new shares in issue push him below 3%

Chab, fair comment, but where are you getting the point about 'significant' from. The December half year and the recent placing and update don't call the payments significant.

Agreed FX, it was quite a sensible strategy. Whilst a lot of people fixated on the supposed deal, Blackwell needed to ensure that there was some sort of cash coming in the door.
In all fairness, the placings havent massively diluted so its proved relatively successful. Yes, the shareprice has been suffering but given the large sellers it isn't surprising.

My expectations for Oxilio are that it will be quite a modest upfront (below £1m) and then single figure million milestones moving forward.
The key thing is that NFX typically have a cash burn of £1m p.a. so such payment easily covers basic overheads.

On the £2m royalties, its difficult to criticise as we don't know what indication or market the proposed new drug will operate in.
For example, we know that Aprepitant (which is the base drug for NXP001/OXL001) current has sales of $100m p.a. so in a basic sense if OXL001 entirely replaced it, we would be on a 2% royalty. If sales were $50m we would be 4% etc. Who knows Oxilio may only be targeting sales of $20m a year in which case a 10% royalty is good.

Until we know the potential sales, we can't say whether £2m a year is good or bad.

For me it’s about providing a revenue stream rather than vast numbers, that will underpin the business allowing the other work to continue.

FX, have a look at how they are positioning it in their pipeline. They are talking about desktop research and patent development, then selling the IP back to the originator. The brokers note also backs this up, identifying it to happen within 2021.

https://nuformix.com/pipeline/

FX, it depends on the timeline for NXP004 and what they decide to do with that. They could have an early win on their cards.

'NFX’s strategy is to license the IP primarily for its existing oncology indications, as, in this case, the NFX IP on NXP004 could be of interest to the originator of the marketed drug as a means to extending its own patent estate to protect this high value drug in oncology.
Thus, NFX has the option to pass the technology and the new form back to the originator in order to extend the patent life of this high value drug in oncology. There is one patent application filed, and a second in progress – if granted, with potential expiry around 2041. Other licensing options include seeking a deal with a generic drug developer.'

So, tomorrow's the Innovate Grant Award day. Whoop whoop!

Would be nice to hear, probably won't be first thing in the morning though.

Pharma, NXP001 is not just about Oncology but will also be licensed out to other parties in other indications. Refer to the brokers note page 24.

'We note that under the terms of the patent NFX has the opportunity to explore additional indications and to seek partners for indications including CINV, dermatology and addiction as well as oncology.'

I'd add that I don't think that the company would technically have to RNS the Innovate Grant if it comes through. They may choose to do so, but people shouldn't be put out if they don't say anything this week or next. We might not find out till reports time.

FX, fair points as confidence is key, but I would add that the Dec 2020 Innovate Smart Grants aren’t awarded till 26 March.

https://apply-for-innovation-funding.service.gov.uk/competition/762/overview

If we don't get a TR1 in the next day or so then who knows what the game is.

Two weeks ago we had 36m volume, I would have thought we might see something after that, then to be followed by another 2 x 30m+ days on Friday and Monday. Surely one of either DT or AC would have crossed a threshold given they only had to offload around 2.5m and 3.5m respectively.