Member Info for Soupdragon78

Everybody must be off losing money on crypto rather than here today.

Wacca, it’s the brokers valuation.

“ A deal could have a $360-450m headline value, based on precedents, although the upfront would be likely to be in the $10-20m range. ”

Thanks FX. They haven’t updated the TRx website since they launched it with the Oxilio tie up, but things will be moving along there. Essentially that ball is in Oxilios court.

Oxilio did a minor update to their website on Wednesday, nothing material, but interesting as they only ever previously updated it when they had news. So who knows if it portends anything?

Interesting point Mars, I guess if a buyer came along then Lanstead may be interested in a sale if the price was appropriate.

What is clear from the numbers is that they will benefit if the offer is higher. Also it is likely that they will be a 'presence' in the mind of the board as they will be no doubt be communicating with the company regularly and wanting as high a return on their subscription as possible.

Alongside the Lanstead profit level, NFX would receive the following amounts over the 20 months.

At 1p NFX would receive £825k
At 2p NFX would receive £1.65m
At 3p NFX would receive £3.3m
At 10p NFX would receive £8.25m
At 20p NFX would receive £16.5m

Quick view of the full subscription over 20 months.

At a constant 1p share price Lanstead would net £275k profit.
At 2p Lanstead net £550k profit
At 3p Lanstead net £825k profit.
At 10p Lanstead net £2.75m profit
At 20p Lanstead net £5.5m profit

Hence they will be aligned with other big shareholders in wanting the sp as high as possible.
As I say, its in their interest to see a higher sp.

Should also add that they could also just sell a quantity of shares that matches the exact amount owed to NFX, then the would get to the end of the agreement and remain a shareholder.

Mars, its in Lansteads interest to see the sp higher as part of their subscription. Here's my thinking (bear with me if its teaching your gran to suck eggs).

Using just the first part as an example. NFX created 22m shares at 1.5p which they give to Lanstead, who then sell them across 4 months and give the proceeds to NFX. So this 22m at 1.5p has a value of £330,000 which is pledged to the company.

The base price for NFX is 2p, if this is met they get 100% of the money due. Above or below they then adjust accordingly.

So, working with the following valuations.

If the sp is 2p for the duration (to make the maths easier than a fluctuating sp), bang on the base valuation, so NFX are due 100%.

Lanstead sell 5.5m shares at 2p each month to cover the money going to NFX, netting £110k each month or £440k in total.
They then pay NFX 4 equal payments of £82,500 (£330k/4).

So with this base of 2p, Lanstead net a profit of £110k. (£440k deducting £330k to NFX)

If the sp is 3p then....

Lanstead sell at 3p netting £165k each month or £660k in total.
As the sp is 50% above the base price, they owe NFX 150%. So £82,500 add 50% = £123,750

So with the 3p, Lanstead net a profit of £165k (£660k deduct £495k to NFX)

Then with sp of a low of 1p.....

Lanstead sell at 1p netting £55,000 each month or £220k in total.
As the sp is 50% below the base price, they owe NFX £41,250

So at 1p Lanstead net a profit of only £55k (£220k deduct £165k to NFX)

In conclusion if the sp is at 3p, then Lanstead make 3 times the profit they would do at 1p share price.

People selling out after exactly 24hrs, obviously don't have the patience for hats of any kind.

I look forward to a nice slice of trilby.

1.5p in 6 months whoop whoop! Ambition knows no bounds!

If you think it’s going lower, why not sell and buy back cheaper?

'These prospects will be further enhanced by further pre-clinical development, including formulation work, toxicology studies and regulatory preparations for Phase I trials. In parallel, business development discussions with prospective partners will help further refine these plans and increase the likelihood of successful deals.'

Key phrase here is 'In parallel...'

Nice of Anne to now show that she has been working for Pulmocide since August.

We'll get one, as well as a BD director.

Don't know when, but confident we will get one.

What will be interesting will be their background given Riddell and Gilberts connections.

“ To ensure the successful outcome of the above potential licensing discussions the company has commenced a search for a Business Development Director and a potential new Chief Executive to replace Anne Brindley who resigned.”

Thanks Filter, also on the website under the document centre section.

Will have a read, one good thing at first glance is that it scotches the idea that Lanstead would drop the subscription price below 1.5p. That is set now and is a 27% premium.

Crikey!

As a reminder of the value within the IPF space at the pre-clinical phase of development.

In 2020, RedX outlicensed their RXC006 drug to Astrazeneca prior to Phase 1, for an overall $360m with $17m up front and have subsequently received milestones of $9m.

In 2018, Samumed sold its Phase 1 candidate SM04646 to United Therapeutics for a deal up to $350m.

Once dosage duration response is understood, NXP002 moves into the zone where it is possible for someone to come in and take it on.

Something worth noting, I realised that regardless of any commercial activity on NXP004, we are likely to have confirmation of which blockbuster drug it is based upon by early March.

This is because the first patent was submitted in Sept 2020 and becomes public 18 months after submission.