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I make the basket $4200, but by my sums! But what are the costs anyone? At $4200 I make the annual value of the PGMs at current prices $680k. How much would one take off this for cost of mining, processing, tax, capex etc, 80% which would leave $136m profit plus any chromium profit? More, less? Any wise answers? A gold/silver miner like Hoc seems to make around $15m on $700m so just a few percent, but Rhodium must make a far higher percentage now?

Hope you are right Vicjain, how do you come to 30p as fair value, have you put in a deal of the ounces they will eventually mine, less the costs, then 80% of profit going to Newmont Agnico and tax, or are you basing it on how many ounces are in the ground. This is a good article on valuing mines https://microcap.co/how-to-value-a-mining-company-part-i-gold/.
To make it much simpler The median price of gold in the ground has been around £30 an ounce so at current value extremely roughly 5million ounces (Orosur get 20%). This is of course exceptionally rough, as too hard at this point to talk of fair price which could still be nothing or a lot. But absolutely no reason it should be worth 20p, 30p 40p or anything else on the current news, or the under 2p it was worth a year ago,, or the over 200p 15 years ago. It depends how many are like us who think the news will be better than expected and how many worse. IMHO This is another very good article about trying to value a company like Orosur now, but probably a year or two too soon http://www.cipherresearch.com/reports/150601_The-Real-Value-of-Gold-in-the-Ground.pdf

Actually the 50% profit share is not much worse than tax/royalty payments in some countries, and gives the government some skin in the gain. However what is terrible is still to have no news on the concessions, even telling us when we might know, nor on W. Africa

Supercharger, problem is 82% increase was last year which hardly included wall disaster. If we going to have more of the same our shares would be well up. However This year will be much worse, with lower ounces and far higher costs, moving further from a tier 1 asset, hence the share price

Sorry Impecunious, hadn’t read your wise reply to Vicjain before posting mine, but we seem to agree

Vicjain “such a long decline with such strong fundamentals”. This is up hugely over a year (1000%!!!). Yes it has had a bot of a correction from having gone too far too fast but that is only in last few weeks and healthy. And what strong fundamentals. So far this has no real fundamentals till we see just what can be mined at what cost. I hold as have done for ages in the hope strong fundamentals will develope, appreciating the great rise, and relieved when it stops being the bubble flavour of the month, as many of those holders are prone to running

Nothing new on 2021, dividend 3c as supposed to 6c last April, no news I can see on new concessions or W Africa, but nothing horrid….anyone else?

JSB the behaviour of retail investors is indeed bizarre but it is a fashion business. Economic news is a fashion business too, one decade the balance of payments is all important , another the money supply, now it is the fed meeting and interest rates for which everyone holds their breath. So a share like Orosur that is drilling prospecting holes but with no guarantee how the exploration will turn out, how much gold will be found, and at what cost to get out, so no metrics, rises 20 fold in price, then halves and the punters can't understand why and say the halving is unfair, how is any valuation fair or unfair, it is just what punters are willing to pay (not that the conspiracy theorists would agree). Same with Centamin shares halving and punters can't understand why, despite lower ounces and dramatically increased costs so profits down this year and next maybe 5 fold, or Hochschild with short mine life and increasing costs. When one posted that any of these should be worth less there was such anger and insults; meantime there is happily less annoyance at saying that this share is undervalued, even though Ruthenium is in a bubble and the world will begin to go electric faster, as should be making a good 6 figure profit this year while only valued at £350m, and even 15% of profits on divi could yield 7 or 8%, especially if ruthenium keeps climbing

Frazzle88 £8 a trade is fine if the broker gives good service

I am hoping so

Yes Tiger give us a clue to your Russian and LA connection, reading sound he’ll on earth but Tharisa sounds relatively decent, looking back at financials the PE seems to tumble to mid single figures in Hugh profit years and fall to the 20’s in low ones, ie does not move anything like as much as profits which might help to explain the very low PE now, tho even lower than usual at top of the cycle but this time is even more bubbly? Thoughts?

Lynn, thank you, just v painful selling Cey at less than half the top but of course you are right, let’s hope Monday brings good news

Assuming not bad news as we have most of the info, w ill the market think the news is known if bad, so keep us level pegging or even improve as news not worse
Or will it effect surprise as though it didn’t know when sees upcoming figures in black and white again.
I am hoping Horgan will have got bad news out, as others have suggested of a new broom, so will be marginally cheerier plus something uplifting on concessions(finally) and W Africa as we keep hoping

They gave them away at 2p, any price could be right now but somewhere around here seems reasonable, the value of the company is around £30m when you take the cash out, could as well be £20m or £40m, but £10m would seem a bit low, and £50m a bit high till more news on what we actually have and how profitable it might be, or not

Now will rhodium make a double top, or we hope keep on going to 40k? Tiger you are a decent chap, at least Tharisa seems in the open and rather more decent

It is not illegal to have more sellers than buyers, the froth has gone away and as said this is a long term speculation so hard to value so any price anyone wants to pay for shares is fair, unlike companies when you have metrics to work out fair value Imho. As expected down a chunk today as no news for speculators

I make it $4191 to the dollar just now so yes you are right, amazing

Newmont Agnico will put in $30m. How much more will mine need to start and how much would our 20% get diluted. Good news the presentation has only pushed the share price down 3.5% so far. Let’s hope for some brilliant next drilling results in the spring

Unless Newmont/Agnico want to sell which seems unlikely no one else can buy, and anyway why should they pay for a hunk as they should end up with 75% for spending $30m on the mine, or 80% till we’ve paid our share, though of course hope they do. If they don’t and the mine starts making $20m pure profit so the value of the mine rises above $250m then the share price now should be about right, and it should go further. However we are talking about the mid 2030’s and gold could be a lot higher but so could all important costs. So total gamble. Wonder if it will go down a bit today on other reports of presentation, tho I haven’t seen it as it wasn’t on the web site as promised last night, and how many are happy to hang on roll 2035 or 40, I am.

Thanks for this link, which I read and got me to read an Orosur report on Anza: a bit scary that Newmont etc can get 50% of the company for spending $10million on works (valuing co at under 10p a share(?) and 90% of dividends when mining gets going till Orosur has paid its development share when falls to 80%. So if I read it right has got to be pretty mega for us to make money? Please put me right