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Not sure what to make of Joseph's AIC merging (taken over) with Intrepid.
Any aideas on how this looks for an investment? Do any BMs hold shares?
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/214927/aic-resources-and-intrepid-mines-agree-to-merge-on-revised-terms-214927.html
Thanks for sharing this link Cowichan.
There is an interesting comment at the end of the article.
"Applying new bidding terms means that this auction (the 2017 bidding round) will be cancelled, paving the way for new bidding to take place."
Firstly thanks Cowchan for posting the link. My view on this development is it will not directly affect CEY inless they apply for a new licence but it may help the Commissioners by putting into perspective the "fairness" of the existing CEY licence, exploitation contract etc., but who knows with lawyers being an obstinate contrary bunch of ****s they may still try and find find against CEY on what should be an open and shut case. Does anyone have any idea of the status and timing with reagrd to Law 32?
A takeover is my biggest worry.
A likely scenario would be the CEY directors would be well recompensed / bought off and the PIs would be shafted. CEY is a long-term investment. I would hate to see it derailed by a takeover.
What defences would CEY have to a takeover?
How does the Sunday Times come up with USD 0.041? 2018 Q2 dividend was USD 0.025 and if the ST is to be believed Q4 would only be USD 0.016 making a total for 2018 of USD 0.041. Could it be based on a 2018 free cash flow forecast of USD 47 million, being 4.1/12.5 x 2017 FCF.
ADVN board seem to be basing forecasts on Oz produced and not on free cash flow, so to a large extent may be disregarded.
The only thing we know for sure CEY commitment to dividend is to pay an annual dividend of at least 30% of the Company’s net cash flow after sustaining capital costs and following the payment of profit share due to the government of Egypt.
In 2017 they paid out 100% of free cash flow so if that is maintained this year the big question is what will be the 2018 FY FCF amount. 2018 HY FCF was USD 36 million
Downloaded the report and will read it. Good stuff thanks for sharing, it helps to understand (as far as I can) some of the industry aspects. I suppose there is another scenario worth consideration being only a small or gradual increase / decrease in the supply of gold which should help push the price up.
Thanks for sharing Tonfacen, something to think about. Must dig out the reports and have a read. Never really got into the detail but guidance being an important aspect of the share price it is time I understood the detail.
Sotolo it is the weekend. Please sleep on it, take a breath and next week keep on posting.
I for one would be sorry to see you go. Everyone is entitled to their views and opinions and I don't see why you should be vilified for yours.
If someone doesn't agree that's ok, they can post and say why. That is the cut and thrust of debate.
However all should show common courtesy and respect the rules of debate without making personal attacks.
IMHO Mramot's comments are debate while Misolgit's comment / observation "I couldn't agree more , just go away and ramp or deramp some where else.." is something not worthy of the usual standard on this board.
It has now been a while since Joseph El-Raghy bought into another one mine prospect.
Would be interested to see other BMs thoughts on AIC and the direction it is going.
https://www.aicresources.com.au/about-us/board-of-directors/
https://www.asx.com.au/asx/share-price-research/company/A1C
https://www.aicresources.com.au/projects/marymia-project/
https://www.aicresources.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/AIC-Presentation-October-2018.pdf
Happy New Year everyone.
Let's hope CEY SP continues as it started and the debacle of last year is behind us.
Got back in and I am now fully invested at an average of GBP 1.10 per share. Should have been lower but missed opportunities when the SP was in the 80p or so.
Hopefully gold price, quantities poured and free cash flow will all be in the ascendancy in 2019.
Fingers crossed but not optimistic for the 2108 FY dividend.
Rebess I too share your lack of trust.
Some key questions that I am struggling with answers for are:
1. what will be the FY results (free cash flow) for 2018
2. what will be the likely FY dividend.
3. What will be the forecast for 2019 (given this years events it can only be a wait until 09-Feb-19 to see)
A worry is if the 2018 FY dividend amount is less than 2017 it may well prove to be another nail in the coffin.
**On a personal note seasons greetings to all board members, thanks for your posts which have made excellent reading and I take this opportunity to wish you all a happy a prosperous New Year.**
Thanks for sharing Cowichan.
Does the engagement include the Mckinsey Report? I have not seen anything on the internet re the contents.
“We have engaged with everybody so that I think in the coming two or three months maximum we will be able to have a fresh, new-look, appealing law.”
A good approach to claim only tinkering and improvements not a complete change.
“It is only changing some of the clauses where we saw that it is a little limiting or restricting investing in the mining sector,” he told a forum for U.S. business people in Cairo.”
I am thinking the "improvements" can only be good for Centamin’s position re the unfairness claims.
“Egypt will present mining law amendments to parliament within three months to make the industry more attractive to investors, the country’s minister of petroleum and mineral resources said on Thursday.”
“The law is of particular interest to investors because of Egypt’s potential gold production, with much of the country’s gold untapped because of restrictive commercial terms.”
“The minister, Tarek El Molla, said that among the planned changes is a cap on royalties paid by investors.”
It is often said that trouble comes in threes.
There have been two profit warnings will the next thing be a reduction in the FY dividend?
- 2017 FY fee cash flow was USD 142 million
- 2017 FY dividend USD 0.10 was 100% of 2017 free cash flow
- 2018 HY free cash flow was USD 36.1 million
So on a very rough correlation 2018 H2 must turn in USD 105.9 million free cash flow if the FY dividend is to be maintained. Not sure if this is correct calculation / correlation or not.
While I disagree strongly with the nefarious actions of CEY Board they seem adept at slipping in profits warnings.
http://www.mining.com/centamin-drops-12-percent-second-cut-annual-output-target/