Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
So yet another so called Analist has posted an unsupported number.
Obviously based on today's gold price plugged into his Excel Spreadsheet to calculate so called SP forecast.
The evaluation being based on income and no mention of fundemental values.
These guys really are unprofessional spivs. Should post a rational and justification of their calculation.
People working in business have to justify their facts and figures why not analists.
Darren123 hopefully you are correcthowever swings in the SP are nothing to worry about because negative share price action independent of gold price movement or "bad news" is usually either a big seller or manipulation. Sadly the result is a temporarily depressed share price.
The fundamentals remain the same, we still have the same management, the same gold in the ground and the same forecasts, so by all that is logical no reason for the negative price movement.
CEY being a gold miner and a "foreign share" not subject to stamp duty is an ideal target for manipulation by market makers, hedge funds and the like.
I have held this share since 01-Feb-2011, bought and sold some along the way and in retrospect wished I had traded more often, but I am fully invested to an amount that is for more than prudent. Lol if we were in Las Vegas I would be he guy sat at the table putting it all on red.
Good luck for the coming period, let's hope there is good news re the African developments to move the SP forward.
Looking at CEY SP I was wondering how analysts actually calculate the SP.
They all seem to have models but what would an analyst's model look like?
Of course there would as a minimum be:
AA Income (a function of ounces mined / sold and gold price)
BB Costs broadly split into three categories;
- sustaining costs
- non sustaining costs
- "one off CAPEX costs"
CC Operating Profit being AA - BB
DD EMRA, Royalties and tax etc.
EE Free cash flow being Operating Profit less DD
How do the analysts covert this into a price per share?
Some fancy DCF calculation?
Do they add in for future value?
Do they deduct for risks?
As you can see my knowledge is rudimentary at best and any input / feedback from members would be appreciated.
B Costs broadly split into three categories;
- sustaining costs
- non sustaining costs
-- "one off CAPEX costs"
C Operating Profit being A - B
D EMRA, Rolyaties and tax etc
E Free cash flow being Operating Profit less D
How do they they covert this into a price per share?
Some fancy DCF calculation?
Do they add in for future value?
Do they deduct for risks?
As you can see my knowledge is rudimentary at best and any input / feedback from members would be appreciated.
Thanks Dasut from an old article it seems our leader Martin Horgan is the man to do it.
"Not every company can make it through from grass roots exploration to production like Toro did though. In the case of Toro it required a quality asset in the form of Mako, which at the last count boasted a reserve of just under 900,000 ounces, and which has been producing ahead of budgeted costs.
But it also required a management team well versed in the mining world that knew how to build projects and find funds and keep all the necessary ducks in a row. Martin Horgan, the chief executive, is ex-Barclays Capital, from the days when Barclays was a real force in mining, and has a track record in management too.
His approach to fundraising was meticulous and exemplary, always involved cornerstones, and if it’s true that not every round was done at a higher price than the last, it is at least fair to say that the current exit price looks like a win all round.
He has been helped along the way by Adonis Pouroulis, a man responsible for the creation of the world’s fourth largest diamond company, and latterly by Nick Clarke, once voted CEO of the year by the Mining Journal for his stewardship of Central Asia Metals (LON:CAML).
Between them, these guys have shown that the pain and unrewarding graft of supporting a valuation on equity markets where liquidity is low and sentiment is anaemic, isn’t always necessary. There is another way to go.
Horgan will likely bank an extra bonus through the change of control clause in his contract, but for the run-of-the mill Toro investor this looks like a win too, with further upside still available through participation in Resolute.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/224783/toro-golds-us305mln-acquisition-by-resolute-shows-that-you-dont-have-to-be-listed-to-make-a-buck-224783.html
MrT thanks for following up with CEY and for sharing the reply.
It is as I suspected, matters concerning the consortium accounts and not the court cases.
However good to know a few million USD in accruals will be released albeit on a drip feed basis. Also good to see Martin Horgan has a healthy ongoing dialogue with EMRA.
Thanks again for your efforts on our behalf.
I wasn't able to listen to the webcast , was anything said about West Africa?
Looking back to March 2021 Martin Horgan committed to providing an update in April 2021
Yet in the 2021 Q1 Report apart from safety there is no mention of West Africa.
There are 8 days left in April 2021.
CEY 2020 Year End Final Results (March 2021)
"The year also saw the commencement of a comprehensive review of the Company with the intention of building on the successes of the last 10 years to map out a strategy for the next decade and beyond which will deliver an optimized Sukari and the realisation of the value in our West African portfolio of exploration assets. I look forward to updating you in due course as we start to deliver into this strategy over 2021 and beyond."
Martin Horgan in 2020 Year end results call
"Away from Egypt, we made some excellent progress in assessing West Africa. That work is close to completion now (March 2021) and I'm very much looking forward to updating you in the next month (April 2021), as we continue this work, and we start to map out the next steps as we seek to realize value from our West African portfolio"
"Our review of West Africa is close to completion. By the end of this month (March 2021) we've completed our technical, environmental and social, plus legal review. And in April, I'll be making several recommendations to the Board on how we take these projects forward to start creating value for Centamin. ....... I'm very much looking forward to updating you about these projects and our plans in more detail in the next quarter (Q2 2021). I think these are exciting times in West Africa."
Well said Sotolo of course ounces matter but Free Cash Flow is the ultimate measure. The one cannot exist without the other. We need both ounces and an AISC + non sustaining CAPEX at an acceptable level.
Something seems to be kicking off with Capital Drilling.
The share price is up approximately 9.4% (63p last week now 68.95p).
Was looking to but in but set my price at 61.5p before the present rise.
Could be a blip but also could be linked to future developments.
Thanks Siko much appreciated.
Any idea what the "the dispute that has lasted for many years" is?
I read it as accounting isues related to the EMRA CEY account, is that correct?
If it was either of the Court Cases there would have been some mention of the Court agreeing.
Thank you Dasut, a claer and informative explanation.
Given the price of money then it seems to be in the interest of shareholders to have some gearing.
Just hope what happend in 1980s when interest rates increased.
Centamin has some cash in the bank but will it be enough to finance new developments in Africa and Egypt or will cash have to be borrowed or raised via a rights issue? Also how the Market will react to more capital expenditure versus potential future income?
Dasult yes very confusing to us shareholders that the SP doesn't bound up.
However for whatever reasons (valid or not) the market has put a value on CEY (priced in the known) which in our eyes is too low but the reality is although the results are very good it is are "steady as she goes" and there is nothing new in there to warrant, at least in the eyes of the market, a re-rating upwards. CEY Management have done what they said they would do.
As we know from Sotolo's excellent analysis gold price is a main driver of movements in the SP, other than this now that Martin Horgan has stabilised the prodution, committed to CAPEX and put cost savings in place we need a major event or events such as; new licenses in Egypt, a positive result / action in Africa, the court case resolving in CEY favor and dare I say it even a takeover, to move the SP. The later I would resist most strongly.
My feeling right or wrong is the value of CEY will shine through and we will see an improvement in the SP over the coming period provided the price of gold stays steady.
I am a long term investor (not trader) and have confidence in Martin Horgan so will continue to hold on for the ride and keep telling myself, right or wrong, patience is required.
I take this opportunity to thank you for your excellent and informative posts.