Member Info for Somnamna

Sotolo thanks for your usual pragmatic say it as it is analysis. How do you see the position at H2 and H4 2021?

I sincerely hope you are correct Steve Jones and from logical analysis barring unforeseen surprises you should be. My worry is how and if the results are presented on a coparative basis and knee jerk reaction to shortfall year on year. Fingers crossed it goes ok.

Well said ElProfessor. Seconded.
I like reading Sotolo's posts and believe so called contrarian views are helpful
In the past I particularly liked his free cash flow explanations.
Good to have his posts which provide balance in a sometimes partisan board.
We are all big boys and should be respectful of each other even if not agreeing.
Keep up the good work Sotolo.
You don't need to defend yourself other than with reasoned argument which your post always are.

Market22 never say never.
Even if you take a rest please still pop in from time to time.
It will be good to hear from you.

The bit I liked is:
“If we found ounces that we could bring to our mill, that would be NPV accretive,” said Martin Horgan, CEO of Centamin, during a conference call in October. Other potential concessions might be able to support a standalone mine, although details were “proprietary”, he said.

Barrick is no 2 in Siko's list in his earlier post

Mr T I may be a cynic and have a biased view but after seeing the pigs in a trough shown by UK civil servants and politicians re COVID-19 PPE procurement I am waiting to see if the licence allocation is done fairly. Having worked in Egypt my expectation is it is likely to be done by the rules. I worked there in 2008 and the situation may have changed now but at that time many civil servants were extremely careful to follow the rules , creating a culture in itself, if not they there was a strong risk of being arrested and jailed pending completion of an investigation.

Very nervy, the licence results are know and the share price dropped.
Kicks in the teeth seem the norm these days for CEY shareholders.
I still hold in anticipation.

What is the reason for the severe drop in share price?

There was an interesting programme on PBS America (available on Youtube) on gold. Two parts covering history, mining, value and monetary aspects.
Some BMs may find it of interest.
https://www.pbsamerica.co.uk/series/gold-the-story-of-mans-6000-year-obsession/

I do hope he is ok?

Lucky Lciarno you are spot on I do need to take a look at investing strategy.
Lol ass far as CEY is concerned it is as close to "put it all on red" as can be.
Thankfully due to the gold price it has paid off handsomelyso far.
My average is 1.06 but that doesn''t reflect buying gains made and dividends received so still very much in profuit.
I really do belive in CEY and that it will truly shine one day but need to temper blind faith with some Rebess and Sotolo logic.

Thank for the feedback Djryan, it is good to know.

Thank for the feedback Muffin, it is good to know.

Another kick in the teeth.
I feel such an idiot, my head and all the signs were screaming sell at 227.
However my heart ruled and I hung on. Was iit greed or belief?
I am a holder since 2010, not as long as some slawarts on this board, but this share doesn't owe me anything.
Lol in the face of all I am still in it for the long haul.
C'est la vie.

Tip Update: Buy at 164p
Tip style INCOME
Risk rating HIGH
Timescale MEDIUM TERM
Our previous tip We said BUY at 119p on 09 Dec 2019
Tip performance to date +38%
Centamin (CEY) will produce more than 50,000 ounces (oz) gold less than expected this year after a section of the Sukari mine in Egypt became unsafe to mine.

CEY:LSE
Centamin PLC

1mth
Today change -18.95%Price (GBP) 163.00
The company said there had been “movement in a localised area” of the pit wall and has deferred work in this area as a result. Centamin’s share price fell by almost a fifth in early trading.
Guidance has been dropped to around 445,000oz for the year, down from 510,000-525,000oz. The company said mining from the unstable high-grade area would be replaced with stockpile ore, which contains much less gold.
The question is whether the area of the “movement” will be able to mined later on, which Centamin said would be determined in a new geotechnical study of the area.
IC View
Centamin has struggled with hitting guidance in recent years, although it had seemed these issues were behind the company. Ideally, a workaround is found and the 90,000oz zone is brought back into the mine plan, but there is no certainty this will be possible. But given the buoyant gold price and the group's net cash position, we remain bullish on Centamin's prospects. Buy.
Last IC View: Buy, 210p, 4 Aug 2020

Thanks for the explanation Mr T.
I have held CEY shares since early 2011 not as long as many BMs and should know to ride the swings.
Thought about selling when at 230 but didn't more of a hoarder than a trader.
Gold price apart CEY prospects for later in this year look good.
The new management team seem to have the right ideas.

Now 209 what is the cause?

It really is exciting but with wary eye on the gold price for retrenchment.
It is heartening to see long term holders basking in sunshine at last.
Just had a look at 2019 interim results
a) US$292.4 million from gold sales
b) 224,129 ounces
c) average realised gold price of US$1,305 per ounce
d) interim dividend of US$46.2 million (4.0 US cents per share)
Fingers crossed and best wishes for the coming weekend and for next week.

Thank you for the information Siko.
It is much appreciated.