Member Info for Somnamna

Martine Horgan has actually done a good job in focussing attention of analysts and media away from ounces to value and profit. The old crew Pardey et al were all ozs.

Both Capital and Centamin moving upwards.
The rate of ascent of Capital's SP is quite steep.

Something seems to be kicking off with Capital Drilling.
The share price is up approximately 9.4% (63p last week now 68.95p).
Was looking to but in but set my price at 61.5p before the present rise.
Could be a blip but also could be linked to future developments.

Thanks Siko much appreciated.
Any idea what the "the dispute that has lasted for many years" is?
I read it as accounting isues related to the EMRA CEY account, is that correct?
If it was either of the Court Cases there would have been some mention of the Court agreeing.

Sorry meant to add "doesn't repeat". in the last line.

Thank you Dasut, a claer and informative explanation.
Given the price of money then it seems to be in the interest of shareholders to have some gearing.
Just hope what happend in 1980s when interest rates increased.

Centamin has some cash in the bank but will it be enough to finance new developments in Africa and Egypt or will cash have to be borrowed or raised via a rights issue? Also how the Market will react to more capital expenditure versus potential future income?

Dasult yes very confusing to us shareholders that the SP doesn't bound up.
However for whatever reasons (valid or not) the market has put a value on CEY (priced in the known) which in our eyes is too low but the reality is although the results are very good it is are "steady as she goes" and there is nothing new in there to warrant, at least in the eyes of the market, a re-rating upwards. CEY Management have done what they said they would do.
As we know from Sotolo's excellent analysis gold price is a main driver of movements in the SP, other than this now that Martin Horgan has stabilised the prodution, committed to CAPEX and put cost savings in place we need a major event or events such as; new licenses in Egypt, a positive result / action in Africa, the court case resolving in CEY favor and dare I say it even a takeover, to move the SP. The later I would resist most strongly.
My feeling right or wrong is the value of CEY will shine through and we will see an improvement in the SP over the coming period provided the price of gold stays steady.
I am a long term investor (not trader) and have confidence in Martin Horgan so will continue to hold on for the ride and keep telling myself, right or wrong, patience is required.
I take this opportunity to thank you for your excellent and informative posts.

Dasult yes very confusing to us shareholders that the SP doesn't bound up.
However for whatever reasons (valid or not) the market has put a value on CEY (priced in the known) which in our eyes is too low but the reality is although the results are very good it is are "steady as she goes" and there is nothing new in there to warrant, at least in the eyes of the market, a re-rating upwards. CEY Management have done what they said they would do.
As we know from Sotolo's excellent analysis gold price is a main driver of movements in the SP, other than this now that Martin Horgan has stabilised the prodution, committed to CAPEX and put cost savings in place we need a major event or events such as; new licenses in Egypt, a positive result / action in Africa, the court case resolving in CEY favor and dare I say it even a takeover, to move the SP. The later I would resist most strongly.
My feeling right or wrong is the value of CEY will shine through and we will see an improvement in the SP over the coming period provided the price of gold stays steady.
I am a long term investor (not trader) and have confidence in Martin Horgan so will continue to hold on for the ride and keep telling myself, right or wrong, patience is required.
I take this opportunity to thank you for your excellent and informative posts.
As we know from Sotolo's excellent analysis the gold price is a main driver of movements in the SP, other than this we need a major event or events such as any or all of new licence in Egypt, a positive result / action in Africa, the court case resolving in CEY favour and dare I say it even a takeover t move the SP.
My feeling, right or wrong is the val;ue of CEY will shine through and we will see an improvement in the SP over the coming period provided the price of gold stays steady.
I am a long term investor (not trader) and have confidence in Martin Horgan so will continue to hold on for the ride and keep telling myself, right or wrong, patience is required.
I take this opportunity to thank you for your excellent and informative posts.

The best position all shareholders would like is a positive outcome and closure of the CC.
However pending such an outcome the status quo is of benefit because no result is better than a ruling against CEY and gives CEY time to put in pace a Plan B.
I don't know the detail of the latest Commissioners Report (perhaps Siko does?) but even though the facts support CEY there is no guarantee the judiciary will rule in the favor of CEY. As can be seen in the world over, judges can have their own agenda and thinking. Especially in “political” cases such as the one against CEY. So to my view it is prudent for CEY to be patient and use the time to lobby behind the scenes and in parallel to work on Plan B i.e new license areas.
My worst nightmare is a ruling against CEY (for whatever reason the judiciary come up with) especially before new license areas are secured. This is not a slight on the integrity of the Egyptian Judicial system but judges the world over being ex lawyers have a propensity for coming up with wrong and or unjust decisions because of their own political / social views, so called legal way of thinking and lack of knowledge of the real world.

Thanks for the positive response.

A lot of hope seems to be resting on them but what impact on the shareprice will the new licences and developements in West Africa have when they are eventually announced? According to popular theory the presentshare price discounts all future actions so are they not already priced in?

Hi Motherfaker, thanks for sharing. Irrespective of CEY you have kindly given me a new source of reading on technical analysis.
Learning from the usual investment mistakes over the years it is becoming clear that a good knowledge of fundamental and technical analysis is required.
A share is not worth buying unless it is good value but it is important to understand where it is concerning price and market action at any one time through technical analysis. Indeed I wished I had read Stan Weinstein's Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets before making the emotional illogical decision not to sell CEY when they were riding high at 230p.
I am a long term holder in CEY and will remain so but on an in / out basis going forward.

Hi Rockonuk01.
To answer your question I really don't know, it could be any or all of:
1. Lack of clarity on future development / reserves e.g. Africa and new licenses.
2. Honey in 2 years but we have to take the pain until then.
3. Concerns over production targets being met, CEY does not have a good track record.
4. Bad news not yet out in the open or the potential for bad news. Lol Rebess's proverbial kick in the crotch.
5. Concern over the forward gold price. Sotolo has kindly explained the effect of a falling gold price on future profits.
6. Forthcoming annual results.
7. First quarter production figures awaited.
8. Short termism by market traders as opposed to longer term investors.
9. Market manipulation.
10. Others.

Quite frankly I don't have a clue what will happen but I do have faith (hope it isn't misplaced) in Martin Horgan to deliver. As for the rest I am just hanging on for the thrill of the ride hoping for the fundamentals to come through even though all chart signals are still showing a decline.

The recent rise in the GBP v USD is also hitting the share price which is priced in GBP..
The rate was GBP 1 = 1.2 whereas it is now GBP 1.4, or thereabouts.
This equates to a 14% drop in profit amount expressed in GBP.

Surely negotiations or even contact and discussions should be reported by RNS at the time.
Not the detailed content but the topic / subject.
Anything else would be a breach of good faith and possibley the Directors legal duty to all shareholders.

Lol frustration at the SP movements is well understood and justified especially when the swings are so big and to an extent could have been avoided. However I have confidence in the new management and hope Martin Horgan will deliver but ike Rebess worry about the next unexpected punch in the gut. Hopefully Martin Horgan can steer us through.

HHi Zambianminer I agree with most of what you say except the part about gaining nothing.
My average price of shares held is GBP1.14, of which 50% comes from profit plus I have received approximately USD 150k in dividends.
For me CEY is a share that gives and while respecting your opinion it is clear there isn't a one size fits all approach to this investment. I am happy to hold until if and when the price of gold goes South.
To sell out now on a takeover would certainly be a good way out but I would feel cheated at having to step out (which may be the sensible thing to do) before the journey is over.

Fortunately, costs are expected to trend down to below industry average levels by FY2023, with production slowly ramping back up to 465,000 ounces annually based on long-term guidance. Plus, the company is sitting on one of the largest gold reserves in the industry for a sub-450,000-ounce producer, with a current gold reserve of 7.25 million ounces, between open-pit, underground, and stockpiles. This leaves the company trading at a very reasonable enterprise value of $1.51~ billion after subtracting out $300~ million in cash, or a valuation of just $208.28 per reserve ounce. This calculation also excludes 7.28 million ounces of gold resources at its other African Projects: ABC, Doropo, and Batie West. Finally, at the current share price, the company is paying a dividend of well over 5.50%~ with a projected dividend of $0.09 to $0.10 in FY2021, subject to board approval. The significant cash balance leaves lots of room to pay this dividend even with reduced free cash flow.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4399712-centamin-plc-tough-finish-to-fy2020?utm_source=zacks&utm_medium=referral

I for one very much appreciate your comments and analysis Sotolo.
The focus on profitability and cash generation, forgive the pun, is "golden".
Seems these days the ability to trespect healthy debate is sometimes sadly lacking.