Member Info for Somnamna

Sotolo it is the weekend. Please sleep on it, take a breath and next week keep on posting.
I for one would be sorry to see you go. Everyone is entitled to their views and opinions and I don't see why you should be vilified for yours.
If someone doesn't agree that's ok, they can post and say why. That is the cut and thrust of debate.
However all should show common courtesy and respect the rules of debate without making personal attacks.
IMHO Mramot's comments are debate while Misolgit's comment / observation "I couldn't agree more , just go away and ramp or deramp some where else.." is something not worthy of the usual standard on this board.

It has now been a while since Joseph El-Raghy bought into another one mine prospect.
Would be interested to see other BMs thoughts on AIC and the direction it is going.
https://www.aicresources.com.au/about-us/board-of-directors/
https://www.asx.com.au/asx/share-price-research/company/A1C
https://www.aicresources.com.au/projects/marymia-project/
https://www.aicresources.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/AIC-Presentation-October-2018.pdf

Happy New Year everyone.
Let's hope CEY SP continues as it started and the debacle of last year is behind us.
Got back in and I am now fully invested at an average of GBP 1.10 per share. Should have been lower but missed opportunities when the SP was in the 80p or so.
Hopefully gold price, quantities poured and free cash flow will all be in the ascendancy in 2019.
Fingers crossed but not optimistic for the 2108 FY dividend.

Rebess I too share your lack of trust.
Some key questions that I am struggling with answers for are:
1. what will be the FY results (free cash flow) for 2018
2. what will be the likely FY dividend.
3. What will be the forecast for 2019 (given this years events it can only be a wait until 09-Feb-19 to see)
A worry is if the 2018 FY dividend amount is less than 2017 it may well prove to be another nail in the coffin.

**On a personal note seasons greetings to all board members, thanks for your posts which have made excellent reading and I take this opportunity to wish you all a happy a prosperous New Year.**

Thanks for sharing Cowichan.

Does the engagement include the Mckinsey Report? I have not seen anything on the internet re the contents.

“We have engaged with everybody so that I think in the coming two or three months maximum we will be able to have a fresh, new-look, appealing law.”

A good approach to claim only tinkering and improvements not a complete change.

“It is only changing some of the clauses where we saw that it is a little limiting or restricting investing in the mining sector,” he told a forum for U.S. business people in Cairo.”

I am thinking the "improvements" can only be good for Centamin’s position re the unfairness claims.

“Egypt will present mining law amendments to parliament within three months to make the industry more attractive to investors, the country’s minister of petroleum and mineral resources said on Thursday.”

“The law is of particular interest to investors because of Egypt’s potential gold production, with much of the country’s gold untapped because of restrictive commercial terms.”

“The minister, Tarek El Molla, said that among the planned changes is a cap on royalties paid by investors.”

It is often said that trouble comes in threes.
There have been two profit warnings will the next thing be a reduction in the FY dividend?
- 2017 FY fee cash flow was USD 142 million
- 2017 FY dividend USD 0.10 was 100% of 2017 free cash flow
- 2018 HY free cash flow was USD 36.1 million
So on a very rough correlation 2018 H2 must turn in USD 105.9 million free cash flow if the FY dividend is to be maintained. Not sure if this is correct calculation / correlation or not.

You are correct Rebess. Date for reporting of Q3 production was showing as 09-Oct-18 on CEY website..

While I disagree strongly with the nefarious actions of CEY Board they seem adept at slipping in profits warnings.
http://www.mining.com/centamin-drops-12-percent-second-cut-annual-output-target/

24-Sep-18 Denver Gold Forum guidance was 505,000 to 515,000 ounces.
5-Oct-18 480,000 ounces
Someone is telling porkies.

http://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/centamin_plc/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=1756&newsid=1196027

The rule is, jam to-morrow and jam yesterday - but never jam to-day.'
The words piis up and brewry come to mind.
FFS CEY managment have got the guidance wrong again.
What the f**k are the playing at? Bunch of incompetent wankers.

Overview
Gold production for Q3 was 117,720 ounces, a 27% improvement on the second quarter ("QoQ"), resulting from month on month operational improvements in the open pit and underground; September was a strong month with production of 48,511 ounces. However operational improvements have taken longer than planned to materialise;
In Q4, we expect improvements to be sustained and production in the region of 145,000 ounces, resulting in a total 2018 annual production of approximately 480,000 ounces.

The recent presentation maintained forecasted guidance so unless there are any more suprises Q3 should show an improvement in line with what is needed to achieve guidance. If not CEY Management will have a hard time explaining it.

The dividend payment was entered on my ii trading acount today.
Quicker than when it was TDI.

Not sure but this may be of interest. https://www.silverdoctors.com/gold/gold-news/gold-shorts-near-record/

Thanks for the feedback and some good reasons. Lol but to be honest my moneyis on red i.e. item J

Sotolo I value your views, they are informative, good to see and present logical reasoned opinion. Not necessarily views and the hard truths that emotional investors (myself included) want to see but valid and eyeopeners nonetheless.
I too wish I had not bought in again after offloading in the recent plunge. I sold just shy of 50% at 138 on the recent plunge but then bought in again at 130. C'est la vie.
Right now, I am in quandary, wish for the best but fear another fall. Reasons a) perception of the gold price, b) AISC rising (reduced production and rising costs), c) uncertainty if production will meet full year guidance.
Lol are there any positive reasons why I should continue to hold?

Good morning Mr Tibbs.
Hope this explanation and insight may help to provide background as a partial answer to the question ".. what penalty clauses were in the contract with Barminco or failure to deliver the specified service!..".
The amount of any penalty if there is one will likely fall far short of the Client's (CEY) actual loss because penalty clauses are usually limited to a maximum of 5% or 10% of the subcontract value or other appropriate benchmark.
Likewise, no chance of suing Barminco because consequential damages are also usually excluded from the liability of the subcontractor to the Client. Consequential damages / loss being a defined term in subcontracts and includes loss of use, loss of production etc.
The reason for this approach is commercial efficacy so the subcontractor does not price in inordinate amounts of risk in the subcontract and make the subcontract price to high.
On the flip side it is up to the Client (yes our beloved CEY Management) to identify the risks and to specify the scope of the subcontract properly.
I have not worked in mining but in large-scale single producer power, oil and gas projects (single producer situation) for critical equipment which if failed would stop production it is normal practice for the Client to identify and manage the risks of the project (project risk analysis) to avoid such a catastrophe that occurred. Also normal procurement practice to have built a requirement into the subcontract for Barminco to have capital and or insurance spares available.
I am shocked that CEY management did not do so and await with interest the Q2 Reports to see an explanation of how such a situation came to be, the actual impact on production and what CEY Management are doing to resolve production shortfall. Also what action has been taken against the responsible Director i.e. loss of bonus etc.
From the facts so far disclosed it is my belief that CEY Management were at best asleep at the wheel or as is more likely the case negligent and duplicit.
----------------------------------------------------
Insurance Spare Definition. An insurance spare is a spare part that you hold as a part of your spare parts inventory, that you would not typically expect to use in the normal life of the plant and equipment but if not available when needed it would result in significant losses.
-----------------------------------------------------
Capital spares are spare parts which, although acknowledged to have a long life or a small chance of failure, would cause a long shutdown of equipment because it would take a long time to get a replacement for them.

Thanks Sparkle much appreciated.

Has anyone more recent news re the new mining strategy than this link from 3 months plus ago? The new strategy is supposed to be ready bu August 2018.

"In revealing plans to develop the sector to optimise Egypt’s benefit from mineral wealth, the Petroleum and Mining Minister Tarek el Molla noted that the current contribution of mining activities to the GDP does not level up to the tremendous mining capabilities the country is abundant with.

The first step in this process involves engaging Wood Mackenzie to study the country’s mining sector and lay out an appropriate development strategy by August this year. Wood Mackenzie is a global energy, chemicals, renewables, metals and mining research and consultancy group with an international reputation for supplying comprehensive data, written analysis and consultancy advice.

The Minister’s remarks came during the signing of a contract between Wood Mackenzie and Egypt’s Enppi company, which will offer logistic and technical support for the consultancy group. The Minister said the new strategy would include setting up mining industries and developing areas surrounding mining activities."

http://www.africanminingnetwork.com/news/egypt-includes-mining-in-development-strategy-comment-by-yolanda-torrisi/

Here is a link from 11-Jul-18
https://www.atonresources.com/news/2018/aton-updates-latest-developments-at-hamama-west-rodruin-and-within-the-egyptian-minerals-sector-grants-stock-options/