Member Info for snooz

The "Re-issue of Treasury Shares" RNS dated 26th July says:

The total number of the Company's ordinary shares in issue (excluding shares held as treasury shares), is 202,740,730.

The quarterly update says:

...at 28 July 2023...Number of shares in issue less shares held in treasury([38]): 198,156,447

So I guess the "Re-issue of Treasury Shares" sentence was just wrong (I don't think I'm mis-comprehending "excluding shares held as treasury shares"). Spreadsheet is now updated. This means we didn't quite hit a premium yesterday.

>It's not even in the realms of a possibility.

Fair enough, a crazy thought - but still I think it would be a sensible bit of business for them (Orano).. but then I think being long Uranium is a sensible trade for everyone right now.

France is focussing on getting Mongolia online as a source.

Overnight was the first time in a long while when I hadn't held any, but it didn't last long as I am back in (424.9p).

Regarding NAV... I'm working based on https://tinyurl.com/YCA-U3O8 , but I notice that sheet calculates a different U₃O₈ "inventory implied value" vs the yellowcakeplc.com home page.

That was a 52 Week High today at 449p. Looked like a premium to me and I've sold out... but will be back in first thing tomorrow if it's still at the same level of the closing auction of 607,161@431.60p (which is a large amount and notably below where the LSE bid offer was going into the auction)

Even though the U₃O₈ price hasn't moved - I can't help but think this is because of what's happening in Niger.

How crazy is it to consider that the French gov started buying up YCA?

Some misunderstanding here I think.

This is all about the one June bond coupon.

They previously got a waiver to pay it late, which was an agreement to pay it today.

This RNS is saying they still can't pay it today so need another waiver.

Some Reuters stories:

Uranium mines: https://archive.ph/GkDCt

Coup: https://archive.ph/HEdqL

Sanctions: https://archive.ph/RwVo1

All-in all... could put a buck (or even two?) on the U₃O₈ price per lb over the next week?

The June coupon gets released from the Debt Service Reserve Account on the 31st July. An RNS to confirm that the coupon has been paid might be expected soon after that.

>"If someone wants to invest in this why not wait until bonds are resolved."

Because right now one can invest at 2.8p, but the once the debt issue is resolved the ask is going to be a lot higher?

Https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/09734575/filing-history update is readable today.

"no current plan to sell [IOG shares] within any particular timescale" is the key bit of info in it.

Those administrators are paying a broker £20k per month to do nothing but provide the odd at-market valuation?! Nice work if you can get it!

> Interest Payment for April 2023...

> Interest Payment for May 2023...

> Interest Payment for June 2023...

Looks more like the right ballpark upon correction... but the bond coupon is only paid quarterly. And I'll hazard a guess that the floating rate is fixed per quarter at most, not per month.

>We have £20m cash and will likely generate a further £60-90m to IOG in the next 14 months

That estimate is far too optimistic, it's more like £30-£50million. (One of us will have to post their math to take this disagreement forward. Expected flow rate pd * conversion to therms * expected price per therm * what fraction is actually iog's less estimated cose)

Somewhere between the FUD and the pumping, there's a correct level for this bond. I'm thinking it higher than this (2.5p) level. Any news about the bond refinancing will be good news.

LOG administrator should be publishing something (summary to end on June) before the end of this month.

>Nobody mentioned the results

because the company is a good communicator their annual results are old compared to the updates that they deliver monthly: https://www.yellowcakeplc.com/investor-relations/presentations/

>Respectfully there is so much lack of understanding here and knowledge regarding the precarious position IOG potentially finds itself in.

I do agree - I don't have a full understanding. But I see no reason why bondholders would take a restructuring deal that leaves anything for shareholders.

And a correction to:

>On the topic of LOG administrators (actually Liquiditors) - pretty sure we'd have seen some regulatory announcements if they have been selling (each time the cross a % threshold?)

I think some of my "knowledge" was wrong - I though LOG had moved to being managed by a Liquidator but it is still an Administrator (I'm suspecting I've mixed that up with a court notice about London Petroleum Company).

Regarding

> institutional sellers smelt a rat in last rns

The yield-to-maturity on the bonds (I am looking at some number that I think came from Bloomberg originally)...

The bond yield were pretty stable until the second half of Feb when it went from 10% to 20%. The next big jump was 2nd week of April from 30% to 80%. Since then the YTM has trended and hit 100% this week. So the signs this was going bad do go back further. The action in the shares has severely lagged the bonds though.

On the topic of LOG administrators (actually Liquiditors) - pretty sure we'd have seen some regulatory announcements if they have been selling (each time the cross a % threshold?)

Thinking of these share options (today's RNS)...

Given that the companies goal is to track the price of U3O8.... Should the board's bonuses benefit linearly from a rise in Uranium value? I'm thinking it would be more 'right' to have a bonus scheme based on outperforming the change Uranium price, or how tight or how constant the discount to NAV s kept.

Feel free to call me miserly for thinking of this :) I am generally in a good mood about YCA as I've been sticking to a strat of selling as the discount closes and buying when it widens. So sold a bit at 425.2 yesterday and bought it back at 411.1575 today. Am a big believer in scaling in and out of this share as the premium ranges from -20% to 0.

"They are not going to fold they have enough cash to keep going"

...until September '24 when they will find themselves short of some $60MM on the bond repayment.

Investors are looking that far ahead, and it doesn't look good.

Post the content somewhere else? Clicking the continue reading link just opens the same page in a new browser.

Calder5, we both posted at the same time to correct me. I do agree, 100MM EUR.

I think I've got the right level of nervousness now - I was getting a bit stressed there for a bit thinking there's an extra 30MM due that may weren't expecting.

I'll correct myself. It is the 100MM EUR figure. The 130MM was if they over-alloted or whatever the phrase is. It is clear from the financial statements that there is 100MM , e.g. https://www.iog.co.uk/media/1454/2022-12-dec-31-iog_ara_150323_final_website.pdf .

It's 130MM EUR though right, not 100MM EUR. See any RNS about the bonds, or the prospectus https://www.iog.co.uk/media/1241/iog-bond-prospectus-6-december-2019-with-appendix.pdf . Looks like incorrect reference data for the bond is being widely circulated.

@Calder5. The bond NO0010863236 quote of 86.63 EUR, that's the price from the MarketInsider website, which was last updated "08.01.2021". I don't know if that's dd.mm.yyyy or mm.dd.yyyy, but doesn't really matter it's so old.

There this source that says 50EUR and the yield 85.953% : https://www.europeanhighyield.online/bond-prices/ .

It doesn't look right to me (yield would be about (50+13)/50 = 126% at 50EUR). Not sure if it's me expecting the wrong convention though - because of the floating rate and/or maybe they are doing yield-to-next-call instead of yield-to-maturity, or dirty vs clean price is confusing me due to the missed coupon payment.

That yield does match another source I've seen though, so any thinking that IOG can meet next year's obligations by issuing ~50MM at 10% is far too optimistic IMO.