Member Info for snooz

>some panic over Cameco production

The concern seems quite justified, https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230903444081/en/Cameco-Provides-Production-and-Market-Update , so I've bought back in @483.8

Just sold my last at 491.4p, as I think that is NAV.

If the price falls at all from here, I'll be the guy providing support :) .

What are some of the finer details around the KAZ option - for some reason I am thinking if gives YCA the right to buy during the week using the end-of-previous-week price, but I can't find that written anywhere.

I gave up on this share a while back so despite holding lots, haven't been following it.

The joy I had the morning when my phone sent me a price alert (I'd left one at 0.75p) turned to disbelief within seconds. Came here to check that disbelief was perfectly justified - a consolidation.

The offer(s) is CVD. The bids are the work-of-fiction INDs. So this is probably the high point for now.

But then they still have a bid/offer for time-travelling August delivery still today, so I reckon there's a lot of creativity going into Numerco's supposed order book - so they might be making up any prices.

>I'm going to cynically interpret "IND" as "we made it up".

Applying this cynicism to the current "orderbook" https://numerco.com/NSet/aCNSet.html (i.e. ignoring the IND's), there's a bid 59.25 for today/Sept delivery only, and no offers for any delivery dates at all.

>There seems to be a rather a large amount offered at mid (192.5p) right now.

There is still a large amount offered at mid (185p) now. I'm getting a strong vibe that someone is selling a large chunk of this, and they've agreed with a market maker to offload it at mid in slices of up to 10k shares.

In the absence of any news, I expect the SP to stay depressed (and depressing? :( ) trending down.

I found Numerco's explanation:

CVD = ConverDyn, USA

CMO = Cameco, Canada

CMX = Comurhex, France

CVO = ConverDyn, USA or Cameco, Canada

CVX = ConverDyn, USA or Comurhex, France

CXO = Cameco, Canada or Comurhex, France

ALL = Cameco, ConverDyn or Comurhex

IND = Indication from wider market

I'm going to cynically interpret "IND" as "we made it up".

On that web page, they have prices for different locations.

1. CMO = Cameco's Ontario facility in Canada

2. CVD = ConverDyn in USA

3. CMX = Comurhex in France

4. What's IND?

>Snooz if you don't mind me asking.... Your buy trigger was 10% discount to NAV, and when spot was on the up, what's your exit trigger?

I'm sparing everyone the news of every trade I do, as it's quite a lot. e.g. the last couple of weeks (prices with fees added in):

14/08/23 Closing Sell YCA, 435.1

14/08/23 Opening Buy YCA, 430.1

15/08/23 Opening Buy YCA, 424.9

17/08/23 Opening Buy YCA, 420.8

18/08/23 Opening Buy YCA, 420.4

18/08/23 Closing Sell YCA, 425.8

21/08/23 Closing Sell YCA, 436.3

22/08/23 Closing Sell YCA, 451.4

24/08/23 Opening Buy YCA, 445.3

I've got a number, let's call it "x", let's pretend x=1000. Call the discount "d", e.g. right now there is a a 5.5% discount, d=5.5.

The money I like to have invested at any moment is d*x. e.g. with x=1000, I'd like to have 1000 * 5.5 = £5500 invested. I'll leave orders at nice round numbers around the current level to stay more or less in line with that.

>Thank you for your thoughts. So, in view of current forward pricing, I guess i'm close, possibly will be 490?

If U3O8 stayed unchanged but the price went to 490p, I'd be very much expecting a capital raise and U3O8 purchase.

All depends on if it's a premium.

When the ""IMPLIED YELLOW CAKE PRICE" on yellowcakeplc.com (currently US$54.76/lb) is above what they can buy it at from KAZ, that's when there would be a capital raise and U₃O₈ purchase.

The capital raises have typically been at the implied NAV level, which is what makes me wary of owning this when it's at a premium. I'm surely not the only person selling when it approaches NAV, which collectively makes it hard to reach a premium.

500p would imply $61/lb .

My following logic might seem a bit backward (growing the company's assets by selling them?!), but I would like YCA so sell some U₃O₈ when the shares are trading at a significant discount in order to buyback shares, as IMO this would make it trade closer to NAV and thus have more opportunities to hit a premium and buy more U₃O₈. The CEO has told me that his big investors have told him not to be selling assets to do this though, for fear of depressing the U₃O₈ market .

>It hit it's all-time high yesterday trading at 458.41p, and that was still a ~20p discount to NAV.

To correct myself, there was a week of so in April '22 when it went as high as 486p.

Put it in a list by itself, and call the list "Things that are going up".

It hit it's all-time high yesterday trading at 458.41p, and that was still a ~20p discount to NAV.

> The price being under 200p still (i.e. slightly down on 4p*50) in the light of that imbalance doesn't look good to me.

There seems to be a rather a large amount offered at mid (192.5p) right now.

That's either an opportunity, or an omen. Take your pick. GL.

Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management own a big chunk (https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ITACONIX-PLC-11003210/company/ ) - I can only see the title of their new note, "Share consolidation". Given they are a big holder, I'm sure they have a fully positive piece of research.

All depends upon your broker. With mine, the shares I held Monday have been renamed ITX_OLD and I couldn't do anything with them all day. The new consolidated shares were available to buy as 'ITX' from around 9:15ish.

The CREST accounts would have been updated automatically, but then it's up to everyone's broker to handle it individually.

>Hope it is not too bad?

Painful when it happened, but all the bones are in the right place so no surgeries need. Happened on day 1 of a two-week summer vacation & got told to put no weight on it. In a better state now I am home and approved for moving around in a boot and crutches.

I'll take the opportunity to recommend all Brits get one of these: https://www.gov.uk/global-health-insurance-card

Back on the topic of ITX...

>Excellent purchase by the way,

Time will tell - but I do feel due some good luck. But since buying I'm not so optimistic. Lots of people would be locked out from selling today while their holdings get converted over, that's a whole lot of potential sellers appearing tomorrow. vs buyers have been free to buy today. The price being under 200p still (i.e. slightly down on 4p*50) in the light of that imbalance doesn't look good to me.

Both Friday and Monday that should read.

At home with a broken foot & each day is blurring into the next.

Bought some myself too now, 194.95p

If there's much interest in this at all, the share price could rip. Market Makers aren't holding any according to my broker who called me up on both Monday and Tuesday to tell me the reason my orders at 4pm had to be cancelled.

>Maximum RSP gateway size is now only 3500? This is even worse than before the consolidation right?

I should have phrase that "This is even worse than before the consolidation right, (after divide by 50 because of consolidation of course)?"

I used to be able to put in requests much larger than 175k in "old money", I even pasted the results of one such request yesterday:

400000 Size, Quote Price: Bid=3.684 GBX Offer=4.61 GBX

In short, it used to be possible to submit RSP requests more than twice the size of what's submittable now. (I am pretty sure this isn't just a feature of my broker's system).

Maximum RSP gateway size is now only 3500? This is even worse than before the consolidation right?

At least the prices are tighter for that size:

Bid=190.1000 GBX Offer=199.9000 GBX