Member Info for snooz

> i have been in a couple of companies like this over the years

I note you didn't tag this with old "Correlation does not imply causation" line.

>No im sorry they never said they would hoard cash they said they stabilise the balance sheet.

Who was it , Smellyben, that said this in a reply to me less than a week ago?:

> they have around 20m pounds in cash as of 3 months ago which will only have grown

>maybe prepaid some expenses,

Hmm... maybe the board would pre-pay their own salaries. Doubt there's anything else they'd pre-pay in the current conditions though.

>How much cash are they producing?

-6.8million in 62 days.

That's £-109k per day. Whilst increasing debt by €5m and failing to pay a coupon which was another €3.5m or so.

>Still producing a lot of cash to give the bondholders something if they want it.

Maybe. I assumed the point of this sentence was to mislead people. What was the point of it?

>Still producing a lot of cash to give the bondholders

Building that cash pile!

>"The cash holding at the end of August was £14.5m (£7.3m restricted), from £20.3m (£7.3m restricted) at the end of June. "

>Debt for equity would be my guess. Shareholders would be considerably diluted but the company ...

105million EUR of bondholder debt, at 1p per share that would be ~9billion shares. A near 20x dilution.

Existing shareholder might hope that bondholders rate the company at more than 1p per share. But when the bonds are (indicatively) priced with a 50% haircut, I doubt it.

> ... would be virtually debt free and in a great position to grow.

The bond debt is about half of the company's current liabilities though, so only half-way to being debt-free.

> front-running

The approved of wording would be "pre-positioning".

> 63million pounds profit

Quoting their results, that was "EBITDAX", which "is defined as profit or loss before net finance expense, income tax expense, depreciation of property, plant and equipment and right-of-use assets, amortisation of intangible assets, impairment of property, plant and equipment, and foreign exchange gain or loss."

In the absence of any new waiver news, news can be expected:

September 26th. Half-yearly report.

This should result in the bonds being tradable once again on Oslo Børs / Euronext. Current indicative BBG price is 50-55 (EUR per 100EUR notional).

September 29th. Two coupon payments of 9.5%+Euribor due (on notional of 100MM EUR) .

News would be to confirm (or not) that it's been paid.

>"The cash holding at the end of August was £14.5m (£7.3m restricted), from £20.3m (£7.3m restricted) at the end of June. "

>· Average realised gas price for August 2023 was 85.1 p/therm (2023 YTD: 107.5 p/therm)

Money was lost in July & August, when prices 85.1p.

>takeover candidate for 5m quid

£5m is less than a penny per share, so many pessimistic people will agree with you. I think that overvalues it by about 1p though.

So:

Coupons delayed from June to July to Sept so they could build up some cash.

They knew they would be loosing money over that period, not building it up.

Are you getting it yet?

"Many a true word spoken in jest" ( - not Warren Buffet)

True. My last hope was destroyed, not by lost licences, or flow-rate updates (was there ever really a blockage?), but when I learned that they were "building a cash pile" by losing 100s of thousands per day (and it doesn't matter if you measure that in EUR or GBP).

Any increase in oyas price or flow rate is just too little too late.

It couldn't make the last coupon payment and has lost money since then. There is no scenario where it can meet debt repayments.

There is no conceivable rescue package or wind-up process that leaves anything for shareholders.

June 26th one I am thinking of

"In parallel with the remediation work on H2, we have been assessing next steps for the business very carefully. Mindful of current gas market and balance sheet risks, we have decided to pause drilling activity for now in order to maximise near-term cash flow."

I'll consider it part of my ongoing education that "maximising near term cash flow" = "loose almost £100k per day."

Seems impossible to underestimate what a bad situation IOG is in.

Fair enough to get a flippant answer to a dumb question.

I should have posted an observation rather than question, which is: I am pretty sure one of the June RNSes (perhaps the waiver one) said they would pause new operations and build the balance sheet (i.e. start building up cash balance). Giving a clear but false impression that there were profitable at that point.

"The cash holding at the end of August was £14.5m (£7.3m restricted), from £20.3m (£7.3m restricted) at the end of June. "

Where did the £5.8m go?

>I bet you're fun at parties "snooz"

I take it you didn't see my 20-20 joke? And the post a few days back comparing posters mental states to the seven stages of denial? My psychiatrist says I'd be great at a party if were ever to be invited!

"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing." - Warren Buffet

"Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks." - Warren Buffet

"The most important thing to do if you find yourself in a hole is to stop digging." - Warren Buffet