Member Info for snooz

"I think, enable YCA to buy at the end-of-week price " ... now I type that out, I realise it much more likely to be a prevailing rate more like: the average of the spot price through the previous week. But still, that's a notable amount lower than spot right now.

SPUT is still a lot closer to buying that YCA: https://sprott.com/investment-strategies/physical-commodity-funds/uranium/

But the YCA -KAP option does, I think, enable YCA to buy at the end-of-week price through the next week - which means YCA is closer than you might think to being able/willing to exercise it. Andre can buy at $79.25 this week (or whatever it was going into the weekend) vs NAV being based on $1.5+ higher.

I'll tell you all one thing that is down: the yellowcake.com website for two days running.

Lol - Thorium, not Rhodium I meant! as in https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3271978/china-sets-launch-date-worlds-first-thorium-molten-salt-nuclear-power-station .

I was thinking a long-term (or actually short-to-medium-term if 2050 is considered long-term) 'threat' to Uranium demand was going be Chin developing SMRs using Rhodium - but that doesn't seem like it's going to be a thing now they are focusing on stockpiling Uranium.

Comparing the August slides on the company's website with the previous - that means costs are running at a little over $1m per month?

I sold most of my YCA on Friday, averaging a fraction over 530p. Spent the weekend and today thinking/regretting and wondering what I'd have to pay to get back in. Now I see numerco's spot has fallen below 80 again, hopefully I can find some clarity in time for 8am.

At these levels Andreas gotta be seriously thinking about spending some of the $30m on the balance sheet on a buy back

>some is needed in Canada, and someoen owns som ein France then they could just agree to swap with us, rather than put it on a boat, Bit that seems unlikely.

That is exactly what a location swap is.

I'm suspecting a future where they'll be Uranium in 'The West', and Uranium that is accessible by Russia, with wildly different prices. If there's a business that can move between the two they'll be a lot of money there.

Like the people shipping Natural Gas out of Russia now.

>It is intended that YCA Commercial Ltd will be the vehicle through which the Group engages in uranium-related commercial transactions, such as location swaps, to realise value from Yellow Cake’s uranium holdings.

Looks like easy money over the last 6 months to e.g. sell spot and buy long-term. Hopefully they can do some of that sort of business too while there's still a differential.

>NT to buy since this morning, are shares that tight?

This is price I see for two different sizes:

Trade Details: 5000 ITACONIX PLC Ordinary Shares Of GBP 0.50 each:

Quote Price: Bid=188.2000 GBX Offer=195.0800 GBX

Trade Details: 10000 TACONIX PLC Ordinary Shares Of GBP 0.50 each:

Quote Price: Bid=188.2000 GBX Offer=204.0400GBX

I agree it's rather unsatisfying that it's so wide but when it moves around so much on so little flow it's hard to begrudge the MMs.

>Persistent and consistent buying on Friday carrying on again today. Must be the same person loading up?

Looks like retail flow (small investors) IMO rather than one person splitting up a effort to load up. Doesn't take much to move the SP of this around.

Https://tinyurl.com/YCA-U3O8 says it just hit a 20% discount. It has been at this level and very slightly more in the past - but not for long.

'course there's two ways the discount can close: share price can go up, or U3O8 spot can go down.

June long-term +$1 at $79.5 despite spot falling from $90.38 to $84.25 over the month.

Frustrating indeed. YCA simultaneously is my best performer of the past couple of years and one of the most disappointing (let's not mention IOG).

re "Surely it is a lagging indicator"

FIP is the price implied by the YCA/SPUT share price, what the YCA website calls the implied U3O8 value. Not an indicator of YCA/SPUT direction. If someone is finding it's a better indicator of other Uranium company moves than the Uranium spot prices, then I reckon that supports a couple of observations I made a few weeks back:

"

1) if one does analyse the price & discount data, they will find that small discounts correlate with upward movements much more since about a year ago than before then.

2) it used to be the case but I suspect it not even clear now that moves in YCA lag moves in U3O8 spot - perhaps that implies the U3O8 spot market traders are trading YCA too?

"

Some links to support the other comments:

https://www.gov.uk/individual-savings-accounts/if-you-die

https://ifamagazine.com/investing-in-aim-shares-within-an-isa-for-iht-planning/

BPR... sounds like not the sort of questions for rando's on the internet, but I'll say I reckon no as BPR is relevant for _unlisted_ shares:

https://www.gov.uk/business-relief-inheritance-tax

Orano at Risk of Losing Niger Uranium Mine Sought by Russia.

Bloomberg: https://archive.ph/uer5T

https://republicofmining.com/2024/06/17/orano-at-risk-of-losing-niger-uranium-mine-sought-by-russia-by-katarina-hoije-bloomberg-news-june-15-2024/

I've said it before but... I'm convinced Orano are going to have to find some new supply.

Cameco's monthly figures for May are released:

https://www.cameco.com/invest/markets/uranium-price

2024: Jan $72.00 , Feb $75.00 , Mar $77.50 , Apr $77.50 , May $78.50

Not sure what can be said other than what's been said many times already, which is: this is not a transparent market.

> I do this on the US market where spread is small, no stamp duty

Note that there's no stamp duty on YCA either as it is on AIM.

>It's not worth trading Uranium.

From personal experience... I was in the habit of holding a number of shares more-or-less proportional to the size of the discount. i.e. When it would move from -20% to -15% to -10%, I'd sell a quarter then another quarter of holdings. And this did work well for a couple of years (though I actually originally was going in and out based on a range of -10% to +10% before changing strat and doing it based on -20% to 0%, ie. not own it when at a premium), but things changed last year and it seemed like whenever there was a good trend upward the discount would be much smaller & I'd miss out on it. So mostly stopped trading it and have been a plain holder with just a few trades here and there (*checks notes* - 5 this calendar year so far).

I've not done any proper analysis but I suspect:

1) if one does analyse the price & discount data, they will find that small discounts correlate with upward movements much more since about a year ago than before then.

2) it used to be the case but I suspect it not even clear now that moves in YCA lag moves in U3O8 spot - perhaps that implies the U3O8 spot market traders are trading YCA too?

> https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/06/goldman-bullish-on-nuclear-power-sees-upside-for-this-uranium-play.html

> But behind paywall.

Content:

Cameco , one of the world’s largest publicly traded uranium miners, is positioned for long-term growth despite lackluster first-quarter results, as Western power companies seek secure nuclear supply chains, according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman has raised Cameco’s 12-month stock price target by $1 to $56, implying 15.7% upside from Friday’s close. Shares of the Canadian miner fell more than 7% after the company reported a first-quarter loss of $7 million on April 30, down from the $119 million profit in the year-ago period. Cameco then bounced 6% to recoup most of those losses through Friday’s close. CCJ YTD mountain CCJ 3-mo chart “We continue to see CCJ as a key means of gaining exposure to the entire value chain of uranium,” Goldman analysts lead by Neil Mehta told clients in a note Monday. Uranium prices have been on a tear over the past 12 months, with the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) up 53% during that period. Though Cameco’s sales of 7.3 million pounds of uranium in the quarter missed guidance of 8.25 million pounds, the company maintained its full-year guidance of 32 million pounds to 34 million pounds. Cameco’s stock is still up about 16% for the year and nearly 80% over the past 12 months. “We continue to believe that an increased need to source volumes from lower geopolitical risk jurisdictions and from low cost providers is likely to drive a migration of imports from Canada and as a result from Cameco, driving both volume and price benefits for the company,” Mehta and his team told clients. Governments around the world increasingly view nuclear power as a key pillar of the energy transition because the technology can provide reliable carbon-free energy at a time when electricity demand is rising. Western countries are seeking secure supplies of uranium to support a nuclear buildout, rather than relying on Russia or neighboring Kazakhstan. The U.S. Senate passed legislation to completely ban imports of Russian low-enriched uranium in 2028. Power companies are required to seek alternative sources of uranium 90 days after President Joe Biden signs the legislation, unless the secretary of energy grants a waiver. The waivers would expire in 2028