Member Info for Sneedway

I agree strong chance of 80s. 70s quite unlikely. If you held it all the way down to 70s why would you sell then?

The numbers I've done in terms of revenue and margin forecasts for long term reassure me, and there is a growth case to be made. Bankruptcy is out of question and a dilution is EXTREMELY unlikely (cash flow positive consistently, gearing stable), but the share price will do what it will. My holding loss has crossed over 10 thousand, but in a Lifetime ISA I can hold this comfortably for a prolonged time.

In my opinion, if you sell now you will regret it in 2-3 years. A 25% loss or even a 40-50% loss is easily holdable. It's not like this is AMC or BBBY. But definitively brace for short-medium term pain.

Margins might have a little more room than that

Assuming 200 million operating profit this FY

At 3.4 billion revenue an overall 5.8% operating margin

At 3.5 billion operating margin 5.7%

3.4 billion is the minimum revenue for FY23 In my view

-Last HY1 1.32 bil was 47% of FY revenue, H2 was 1.49

-This year we have 1.57 bil H1 - 19% increase YoY

-Assuming 19% H2 growth YoY we would have 1.77 for H2 - 1.57+ 1.77 makes 3.34 bil revenue

-Make an allowance for a heavier H2 with new contracts, more passengers, pricing recovery - 3.4 bil is the minimum, 3.5 quite possible.

-Let's say H2 is 1.8-1.9 billion.... Operating margins in H2 need to be 7.5%-8% to meet the 200m profit forecast overall.

Last year's operating margin was 7% dead on. You are correct; if this can catch up to inflation and restore historical margins then we're in good for a lot of money generation.

I don't see a final dividend hike this year given overall adjusted profit is likely to be lower. But with the 1.7p interim this is already a 34% hike on last year if they give out 5p again.

Worth noting the 200-215 estimated profit is pre-interest. In a best case scenario looking at 120-130 million or so adjusted profit before tax when you take the 75 million interest in account, down from 145 adjusted profit before tax last year.

Their slides state the UK fare increases, US contract renegotiation and cost reduction will account for 50m of the H2 profit + a healthy chunk of growth. They are also forecasting the new contracts will provide 28% ROCE vs the 5.9% this HY/7.7% last year. If they can pull off the price increases with continued strong growth then this will all work out.

US Margin at 6.5% rather than 11%, excuse me.

The margin improvements are the thing to watch for. The decline is the reason for the carnage today. Revenue growth is excellent but is just vanity unless it can be turned into profits. The margins don't even need to be that high... just sheer passenger and revenue growth at 7% margins will handle the debt well enough.

UK Bus Fares increased by 12.5% from July 3rd.

ALSA already working at a good margin - probably saved the stock from a 15-20% down.

US - Adjusted margin 2.4% vs 11% last year. The plan is contract price raises to cover wages which they are stating is 13% vs 10.3% last year. Being able to reinstate more routes will help drive revenues as well.

I will re-invest my dividends and Lifetime ISA on the next top up.

CFDs are a massive trap for retail investors. Buy and hold. Regular swing trading is a better alternative if you need to satisfy your urge to stay active.

It's all going to come down to margins. 3.3-4 billion revenue this full year is possible. If margins recover particularly in US then this will a cash printer. Revenue growth is really encouraging but needs to turned to profit with margins

Quite disappointing the margins went down so sharply in US but they are confident they can recover this. That's the next decisive point for this stock; likely to be in the dumps for a while here unfortunately.

H1 profit £25.4 million. Profit forecast 200-215 Mil for full year

FCF 79.7 Mil

Interim divi at 1.7p in line with policy

ALSA performing exceptionally well and carrying the profit hard for this H1

NA bus business margins down quite sharply; normally this is a big money maker

UK business swung to a loss; they are stating due to driver wage increases

Covenant net debt down a bit to 908 mil

Interest cover at 6.3; Net interest paid 16 million from 13.2 last half year.

Revenue looks like it will top 3.2 billion quite strongly, 3.3 billion even. However we need margin recovery from school contracts in US, fare increases in UK bus/public funding.

Reassuring they are projecting a FY profit increases but market might not take this profit fall well. We may be bagholding for some time still.

You need to be more patient and not panic over small movements. The best rationale for buying here is essentially betting on a post-covid recovery with anticipation of return to historic levels of earnings, dividends and growth. In my opinion this is very likely to happen but you cannot time the bottom on a share like this.

As I said, do not be surprised if the share revisits the under £1 range again. Read the last full year report and await the Wednesday release. Let fundamentals guide you, not short/medium term movements.

The speculation about further dilution some have posted on here is laughable; the business is cash flow positive with more than enough to handle rising interest payments, large majority of which is fixed. Again, interest cover is at 8.6 or 6 if you count the hybrid bond payments as debt. Gearing is within pre-Covid covenant levels and is likely to improve further given good rate of growth.

Not much of a huge volume spike yesterday so would not be too unusual for it to fall back. It's not truly a domestic business UK revenue is dwarfed by ALSA and US.

Further reversal possible with good results. Particularly interested to see if US bus margins start to recover to historic levels which would boost profits majorly but this may be more H2 when they renegotiate contracts.

I would not be surprised to see UK inflation disappoint again and the SP to drop again. UK has been hitting itself in the face economically for a decade and we are seeing the consequences.

However the lion's share of revenue and profit is USA and ALSA where inflation is nicely moderating. I have £45k invested here but will add more if we see 95 or lower again.

If year-on-year growth continues like in the last quarterly, the group should solidly hit 3.2 bil in revenue for this year. Possibly more depending on new contracts.

At current margins that would be more than enough to service the payments while still allowing for EPS growth and a dividend hike.

First post here; holding since 130p, averaged on the way down.

Bond/Loan interest was 32m 2021, jumped to 35.5m end of 2022.

Only 19% of total debt is floating but the 400m bond due to be refinanced was issued at 2.5%; refinancing will add at least 15 mil interest a year, no idea on what % they will get on this + some increase from the floating debt component.

Hybrid Instrument 500 mil; 21.3-21.5 mil a year not listed as debt but rather equity. Fixed for 5 years. Large portion of debt is due to be refinanced in late 2020s. By then one would have hoped rates will have retreated down somewhat and the business/economic outlook to be stronger overall.

Total interest was 48.6 mil. Interest cover was 8.6 on all this except hybrid bond. If you consider the hybrid bond payments as debt/payments as interest, then interest cover would be 6. For context, in 2014 interest cover was at 5.1.

If the revenue growth with current margins stays then these numbers look quite reassuring and the debt appears serviceable. It really depends on how much interest rises vs business growth.

Unless I have missed something vital out, this looks optimistic to me if one holds through the pain.