Member Info for Sneedway

Any expectations?

FY results are in March. It's interesting they're doing two TUs between the HY and final results. Perhaps a change to guidance either to upside or downside?

It probably will correct into 86s or so before (?if) it heads higher. The 30-70 RSI range tends to enforce itself eventually even on a strong uptrend.

I wonder if the Cosmens may wish to break up the business instead of a full takeover. Take ALSA and leave the UK headache out of their hands.

Tbh I am pleasantly surprised about this stock not dumping into low 70s despite the broad market taking a beating recently.

Hang in there and don't stress about a few pence of movement.

Northern Express is Cosmen as well, all employees listed on government website are cosmens

Nice to see the hole this has made in my portfolio shrinking. ALSA/remaining US business expanding everywhere he time may well make up for the school bus sell off in time.

Hopefully they won't fumble the school bus disposal and find some sort of a solution to the west midlands conundrum

I'm optimistic here as well. Mortgage rates are calming down and rate cuts in 2024 are a given despite Bank of England trying to play tough. Huge migration fuels the shortage of houses which buoys prices.

Labour policy on deregulating housing and bringing in new towns can only be good for this company as well.

You are correct not to pay too much attention to charting. It's just helpful to contextualize short term movemement sometimes.. I was looking at a paypal stock chat on yahoo the other day (got a position at $52) and everybody was saying it's over because it retraced to 61s after going over 63.

Very normal for this to happen in any stock in whichever direction it's heading.

Will need a bit more time before moving higher.

RSI went over 70 (overbought) so it's surprising it hasn't finished 2-4% down on Friday. Technical analysis is a bit astrology like but if I had to bet I'd say it will retrace a bit for most of next week. RSI is pretty reliable for the short term compared to other indicators. Never a smooth ride up (or down).

The US/ALSA/UK Coach business should do well

But UK Bus looks like an unsolvable knot. Limited scope to raise fares on a skint working population/pensioners get free bus passes.

Presumably they cannot cut unprofitable routes as part of the subsidy deal with local authority - but the subsidy is not nearly enough given it's still losing money.

Limited scope to cut other costs - Labour costs won't go down even if they steady.

Central government subsidy is the only real thing I can think of; with more cash from HS2 scrapping. In a few years it seems realistic the local authority will take the business back and roll out a franchise model which would probably be better. Similar to how FGP gets a big payout for very poor train service.

It's looking pretty good. Just need Bank of England to start playing nice in the next few months. They have to keep up the facade of keeping rates up but they will have little choice but to follow the Fed in 2024.

Huge dump in last few minutes. Trading212 showed shares as halted.

£25bn impairment is no joke even if non cash. Particularly since its directly related to value generation from products rather than discount rate. Have bailed but probably try to jump back in again at some point if it drifts lower. Support level got smashed.

I expect this is legitimize vaping as a long term replacement. It's better than going from little regulation to outright bans. Once it's regulated it's much more palatable in public opinion and for politicians to show they've cracked down on it.

How much is Hell Let Loose contributing to the impairement? As I recall, they spent quite a bit of cash on buying the IP but the player response to their actions is pretty strongly negative. Player numbers way down if you look on Steam charts.

Players of more niche games are generally way less open to getting shafted compared to the demographic that buys a reheated low effort CoD or FIFA every year for £70.

Moody's, Fitch and Jeferries all agree that the sale should provide appropriate delevaraging. US performance is improving from H1 only underperforming slightly. It's going to need time to come through.

I'd suggest not engaging with trolls. Either the ramper troll or the dip guy who subtracted depreciation from EBIT in an earlier post If you can't help but get baited, then just block. It's not worth your blood pressure.

The UK bus problem is they can't really increase prices. Even with the new fares it's still something like less than half of cumulative inflation since last increases. Rest of the business is actually doing alright, it's UK bus that formed majority of the profit warning. ALSA had a record half.

I'm optimistic on central bus government bus subsidies becoming more permanent and expanded, though. Similar to trains.

Pedro, there is no point mindlessly ramping, it's not gonna make the stock rise. Doing that is basically no different to the guy who was making up 435m pension deficit figure the other day. chill out.

Looks like it's benefitting from the wider market surge. Fed rate, BoE rate holds with huge underlying housing demand with UK net migration pushing 600 thousand now. Operating margins well maintained and pretty low debt. Labour pledging new towns and deregulating planning can only boost demand as well. Got in at 122, hopefully the bottom. Looks like an exciting opportunity.

Without the profit warning it would be pushing £1 today on the back of encouraging fed decisions and narrative but here we are.