Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
Will need a bit more time before moving higher.
RSI went over 70 (overbought) so it's surprising it hasn't finished 2-4% down on Friday. Technical analysis is a bit astrology like but if I had to bet I'd say it will retrace a bit for most of next week. RSI is pretty reliable for the short term compared to other indicators. Never a smooth ride up (or down).
The US/ALSA/UK Coach business should do well
But UK Bus looks like an unsolvable knot. Limited scope to raise fares on a skint working population/pensioners get free bus passes.
Presumably they cannot cut unprofitable routes as part of the subsidy deal with local authority - but the subsidy is not nearly enough given it's still losing money.
Limited scope to cut other costs - Labour costs won't go down even if they steady.
Central government subsidy is the only real thing I can think of; with more cash from HS2 scrapping. In a few years it seems realistic the local authority will take the business back and roll out a franchise model which would probably be better. Similar to how FGP gets a big payout for very poor train service.
It's looking pretty good. Just need Bank of England to start playing nice in the next few months. They have to keep up the facade of keeping rates up but they will have little choice but to follow the Fed in 2024.
£25bn impairment is no joke even if non cash. Particularly since its directly related to value generation from products rather than discount rate. Have bailed but probably try to jump back in again at some point if it drifts lower. Support level got smashed.
I expect this is legitimize vaping as a long term replacement. It's better than going from little regulation to outright bans. Once it's regulated it's much more palatable in public opinion and for politicians to show they've cracked down on it.
How much is Hell Let Loose contributing to the impairement? As I recall, they spent quite a bit of cash on buying the IP but the player response to their actions is pretty strongly negative. Player numbers way down if you look on Steam charts.
Players of more niche games are generally way less open to getting shafted compared to the demographic that buys a reheated low effort CoD or FIFA every year for £70.
Moody's, Fitch and Jeferries all agree that the sale should provide appropriate delevaraging. US performance is improving from H1 only underperforming slightly. It's going to need time to come through.
I'd suggest not engaging with trolls. Either the ramper troll or the dip guy who subtracted depreciation from EBIT in an earlier post If you can't help but get baited, then just block. It's not worth your blood pressure.
The UK bus problem is they can't really increase prices. Even with the new fares it's still something like less than half of cumulative inflation since last increases. Rest of the business is actually doing alright, it's UK bus that formed majority of the profit warning. ALSA had a record half.
I'm optimistic on central bus government bus subsidies becoming more permanent and expanded, though. Similar to trains.
Looks like it's benefitting from the wider market surge. Fed rate, BoE rate holds with huge underlying housing demand with UK net migration pushing 600 thousand now. Operating margins well maintained and pretty low debt. Labour pledging new towns and deregulating planning can only boost demand as well. Got in at 122, hopefully the bottom. Looks like an exciting opportunity.
Https://www.ft.com/content/03ac15ba-76f7-4e31-b835-f9c6e5e9402e
Good news for ALSA and German rail. Both operationally in terms of cost pressure but also that rates will moderate further for any future refinancing. UK is also predicted to dip sharply in the next announcement.
This is the article referenced https://archive.ph/glroy#selection-497.5-509.1 just use google translate.
Pretty sure the 4.1 Net debt to EBIDTA figure includes the 500m hybrid in this context E.g. £1.66 bil vs ? £400m something EBIDTA for this year
And presumably the 2.5x would then be with the loss of US school bus income/ Best to look at the overall leverage rather than a specific figure. If you grow EBIDTA nicely you effectively deleverage yourself but obviously this hasn't quite happened so here we are.
This is really good if there is funding to subsidize it.
Trains enjoy a huge subsidy, about time bus services do also. It also sets the precedent for future governments to open the taps for more subsidies.
@Genghis
Escalation would affect it from sentiment and the impact of oil prices on inflation/interest rate; not necessarily directly affect operations esp since fuel costs are hedged. If it stays contained then it's just another bloody page in the region's history but Hezbollah and Israel have been exchanging some fire at each other.
RSI shot below 30 over last week so a jump back eventually is inevitable... RSI is pretty consistent like that. Loaded up yesterday and the day before
£250 on a trade here today, just need to do that about 100 times.
My personal opinion is ultra low rates will be back across Europe relatively quickly. By that I mean in the 2026s. Yes they're low historically but they've been trending down for decades anyway; ECB has slammed the brakes on a mere 4%. Aging population with corresponding spending needs and poor growth will necessitate super low rates. It will be the new normal IMO. Like Japan. US spending and interest payments are also up there even if the economy is stronger. They're talking higher for longer but also said inflation was merely transitory...
If that's the case, companies like MCG and others punished by the current situation will thrive if they survive. Obviously I could be talking rubbish but keep in mind ECB was actually in negative rates before COVID...