Member Info for Sneedway

Looks like UK bus is still losing money and I think that might not change for a while, with UK coach making up the shortfall for UK overall. Some comments on them looking to cut unprofitable routes in 2025 if they can't get a good enough subsidy package.

US School Bus adjusted margins at 2.4% so same as at half year.

ALSA keeping company alive.

Pretty lukewarm. Bit of a concern that NA adjusted margins are the same as at HY, those were supposed to improve with contract increases.

How bad could it be? The German provision guarantees a statutory net loss, I think. Which is reflected in the SP. Free cash flow should be positive but if it's negative that could be a real shocker.

Results on Monday!

Will be interesting to see the numbers and whether it's worth getting back in.

It is now the third week of April and still no FY results date. I suppose they're thrashing out accounting on German rail. Surely no further surprises?

They should really announce the results date within next week, right? The absolute bloodbath if they delay it again or even with another retrospective profit warning.

US inflation is really awkward now since the rise yesterday was broadly fueled by housing costs which is majority rent and interest rates don't really help that. Can arguably make it worse.

It makes it awkward for UK even if inflation is good next week cause cutting rates if US doesn't has potential to majorly fuel inflation because of £ devaluation and oil being quoted in $

It will be interesting to see if the Fed acknowledges shelter costs as the sticking issue and their inability to do anything about that

Https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/12901bc3ebe74e888a7e6fa91e15ad9c

PMI at 50.2 meaning a very humble expansion. Encouragingly the trend of housebuilding activity is trending to a rise above 50 as well. Early days for sector recovery still.

What a wonderful V shape recovery. Gold pushing over $2300 helping for sure.

£15-20m, rather.

Unfortunately there was still a £10-15m contribution to the October profit warning from UK bus after this even with the new subsidy; the cash is not enough. Will need to see the numbers at FY.

My thought is that barring quite notable operational improvement the stock is possibly to drift lower in the next few months. 40s less likely but mid 50s fair chance.

US seems to improving to an ok status, ALSA good. But UK bus faces fundamental viability questions with the company essentially subsidizing the stingy local authority. Same with viability of German rail if last minute energy cost recovery changes can immediately cause a profit warning. The need for public transport is there but the governments won't cough up the money and the company makes up the shortfall. This is obviously very bad.

This goes a bit beyond the balance sheet/temporary cost pressure concerns that initially drove this stock lower. It's more of an existential concern for the business as a profitable entity, so I'd be cautious on buying low again. Inflation chilling out and rates being cut in and of itself won't be enough now.

I'm gonna keep an eye on the company still. Buying low in the £1.30-0.80p range didn't quite work out but maybe second time's the charm if it slips to all time lows again.

My investment reason was - ride out the short term inflationary bumps, grow revenue to outscale debt. If they can't do that then it's only gonna chug along barring a buyout. But IMO you should never invest based on buyout speculation. A depressed operational performance with some questionable adjustments to operating profit alongside a chunky debt pile is a recipe for poor returns. And then back to back profit warnings and a double results delay really raise concerns on management competence which is a BIG red flag for any company.

If they shown signs of operational improvement in next 12 months, it's definitively heading back up. They'd do well to delay the US bus sale until interest rates come down so they can get a better valuation.

It's looking good. Production forecast up, production costs well controlled, gold prices up, insiders buying. Average of £12.90 so far so good.

Interest is about 97m, 75m regular and 22m hybrid.

I've actually sold out for now with a chunky loss although not devastating. Opportunity cost does bite, though

The fact that a last minute spontaneous change from transport authorities can immediately cause a profit warning is not too inspiring. Contracts should prevent this kind of rugpulling. They talk about having a constructive relationship with German/Birmingham authorities but this seems to be a one way street where the company subsidizes a stingy government.

If it heads lower I suppose I can buy back in but the predicted operational recovery I was investing based on doesn't quite seem to be happening.

Barely below 70p now. Will be amusing if it ends slightly positive.

Honestly I was expecting low 50s today

Certainly not something I wanted to wake up to

I'm not one to speculate on behind the scenes conspiracies but the delay in just announcing the results date (almost 3 weeks now) makes me wonder if they're doing this on purpose so the Cosmens can buy ultra cheap shares.

Between northern express/european express enterprises they have just over 22% now.

Earnings in line with guidance. It's a good enough FY.

But activity continued to be subdued and no pick up in Q4 in activity. House prices have started doing well again but it's all just because of massive migration numbers/lack of supply. They need to signal an activity pick up to really drive upwards. Conversely, there is a chance to head back downwards if things get worse in 2024/inflation stalls or elevates again.

Volatility is a two way street. CEO drama caused the fall not fundamental company issues. Large expansion at ultra low cost per ounce pretty much completed. A lot of good here I think.