Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
Key things for me
Numbers wise - continued positive free cash flow, meeting EBIT guidance, specific EBIT numbers by regions particularly UK which is lagging and hoping for continued ALSA outperformance.
Others - info on plan to get UK bus back in profit somehow, US sale update probably will be a separate RNS in next few months. More info future growth from geneva, portugal, saudi arabia and US shuttle/urban transit etc and future opportunities.
Missing the downgraded guidance would be very bad. If they achieve the upper end of guidance though it's barely off the original mark and probably drive SP upwards.
Core CPI is still at 5.1% which way too high.
BoE aren't hawks but they'll more likely still push back on cuts until that shows more convincing drop. Or not? Our economy is so weak it cannot function on these rates.
A recession would unironically do MCG some good. Rate cuts will tank the £ and the bus sale will pay off more debt when converted from $.
It's establishing itself into the 90s nicely. Price volatility expected.
My average is £1.35 after reducing my position minutes before the October dump into 50s. Shame I overextended myself buying on the way down above £1 but the loss is shrinking and hopefully breakeven this or next year. A good lesson that low can go lower.
West Midlands management has been replaced, hasn't it? They played far too gently with the local authority. That's the biggest contributor to the profit warning.
You can't have private companies subsidizing s country that inflicts austerity upon itself. Especially when in parallel you have train operators making jokes about free money for non functional services. They need to cut routes aggressively or get more money. Likely former as the council is going bankrupt.
But it's what has been expected. Market took it relatively well given it's trading at £1.40 and moved in line with housebuilders on inflation news. The share is super low for a reason in the first place.
Disappointment implies missing expectations but they haven't.
Nice to see the hole this has made in my portfolio shrinking. ALSA/remaining US business expanding everywhere he time may well make up for the school bus sell off in time.
Hopefully they won't fumble the school bus disposal and find some sort of a solution to the west midlands conundrum
I'm optimistic here as well. Mortgage rates are calming down and rate cuts in 2024 are a given despite Bank of England trying to play tough. Huge migration fuels the shortage of houses which buoys prices.
Labour policy on deregulating housing and bringing in new towns can only be good for this company as well.
You are correct not to pay too much attention to charting. It's just helpful to contextualize short term movemement sometimes.. I was looking at a paypal stock chat on yahoo the other day (got a position at $52) and everybody was saying it's over because it retraced to 61s after going over 63.
Very normal for this to happen in any stock in whichever direction it's heading.