Member Info for Sneedway

Here is the asset value for NA

According to the 2022 Annual report

Non current assets

Intangible 849m - with 743m of goodwill

Tangible - 553.7

Total of 1403

Vs what it could be used to pay off

250m bond due 2028

Private placements due 2027-2032 - 404m

Divisional bank loans 139m

Perpetual Hybrid Bond - 500m

Nobody here can realistically say what it could be sold for but on the surface it seems like it could go for a good chunk of cash. Also not all of those assets are school bus but large majority would be. With EBIT guided to 185m it almost seems like an overreaction today but clearly the rapid guidance scrapping, dividend flopping and now this disposal has crushed all market confidence. It's gonna take a number of years of good results for this company to recover now. If you bought over the last year you'll definitively get your money back by 2030 but there is now zero chance of doing a rapid recovery like we were hoping to see.

Took a 5k hit on 14000 shares on open at 76p, left the LISA and SIPP holdings which are about a 20k down. This might be tradeable over the next few weeks to recover some losses. Good luck to all holders.

Should be no RI or other dilution. EBIT at 185m will solidly handle the interest still.

It's looking like a longer time frame to recover now unfortunately; no chance of a V shaped comeback now. The long term consequences of losing the US school bus business are also concerning given that was always a major profit source. Interest rates will come down but the disposal is permanent. Now you have UK left which is not that great, ALSA which is strong, and Germany which is still small.

On a 10 year time frame it should be fine; my LISA can wait it out but long term it's not clear if the company can ever recover to pre-covid levels now. Before it was a no brainer.

I'm obviously an optimist but this is bad.

UK-coach good, bus lagging

Germany-revenue decline bad

US-presumably no return to profit based on this

ALSA-putting in work as usual

Divi suspended obviously very bad, especially since it's flip flopping. Not a fan of selling what should be a strong cornerstone of the business also.

Still in projected profit but market confidence in the stock has just hit rock bottom. Took a 5k hit on selling 14000 shares ISA holdings to deleverage on my own front.

The day to day market makes fools of all of us. S&P 500 rally today.

Oil prices just dipped 5% in a single day likely to push markets up tomorrow.

Good US inflation data next week could send MCG into 90s if not over £1. Or the other way if it's bad.

Hence why I tell JG to not stress too much with the day to day movement. Your strongest weapon as a tiny retail investor is unending patience. Unless you bought Paypal at $300 that is.

I would love an opportunity to buy amazon at under 100 dollars again. But if it got to that stage now MCG would probably be at 50...

US market movements overrides any European sentiment, it really is that simple. America leads the world.

US CPI especially core CPI and Fed will move the needle the most this month

If CPI is soft you'll see 95p and higher probably. Just hoping for that tbh. Fed will probably raise but holding would pump the markets high.

US jobs data punishing market. As I said previously it's just how it will be. Fingers crossed for good inflation readings later in month

Being essentially flat when FTSE is down 1%+ is relatively good. A lot of the UK market is getting hammered again.

That said it literally just shot up over 90p again.

To follow up on this

German inflation also settled further last week/Eurozone inflation overall down.

US core PCE down to 3.9 below expectations last week

Oil prices might throw a curveball but the market and Fed pays more attention to the core reading so fingers crossed that will only be a blip.

Key dates for this month - 12th for US CPI, 18th for UK CPI

If it continues trending down then the worst is behind us. IMO by 2027-2028 we might be seeing near 0 or negative interest rates again in the UK/EU which mitigates the main refinancing threat for the other bonds.

Not particularly impactful news but reassuring that ALSA should be able to continue to perform strongly and carry the business.

And fuel prices hedged 100% for year and 75% for 2024 to soften the impact of fuel prices going a bit crazy again.

this is a franchising model. basically same as our rail in principle.

the possibly company advantage is government takes more of the fiscal risk. e.g. first group still makes good cash despite massive strikes, **** poor service. government picks up the check and directly subsidizes.

UK PMI boosted the share price today.

Don't get too stressed if some strong US labour market data pushes it down next few weeks. It's just how it's gonna be for a while until the FY results.

Can't exactly blame the management for inflation and central bank actions. That's the only thing driving the last few weeks of movement.

ECB signals no more hikes - up

UK inflation below forecast - up

Federal reserve forecasts less cuts next year - today happens

There was a small intra-day spike for BOE pausing today but the Fed is the biggest influence by far.

No CEO can influence that. If US inflation comes in below expectations next month you'll see another 6% day, or reverse if it's above forecast. That's all there is to it barring specific company news.

Excellent news

Inflation trends and central bank moves will override any chart analysis currently IMO. Rock bottom support levels on UK shares should generally hold unless the situation worsens however.

Enjoy today's market

FGP is an awkward comparison. About 2/3 of profit is from UK rail which is much more heavily subsidized. Their buses do turn a 6.5% operating margin however which obviously outperforms west midlands NEX currently.

I think we may still see a lacking UK bus performance in FY. US school bus is the one to be excited about.

That would be nice but not yet...

A horrible day but just another 1000 shares added to the stash. Hope the Euro bond calmed down the members who were worried about a dilution. Fitch confirmed it's for the purpose of refinancing the 400m bond.

My impression of the 12m incremental cost was referring to the expected interest on the new bond.

400m at 2.5%=10mil interest

400m at 5.5%=22mil interest

500m euros converts to 428m sterling so that should more or less match up. They've stated they expect the bridge not be used as well so the 12m should refer to the new bond interest.