Member Info for Sneakysnake

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Is-Here-To-Stay-But-We-Can-Reduce-Its-Emissions.html

Bit of perspective

Could falcon use the 30 day period to do a deal on future funding requirements with the Sheffield crew and waive the pre emotion assuming the upcoming drilling and flow test are up to scratch.?

All
Given the difficulties that Tamboran had drilling their first 2 attempts....they only managed a less than 700m frac,I expect using seismic, their next attempt should avoid and faults if that indeed was the problem.
In any event,one would expect if things went smoothly,the flow rates they have achieved to date should be easily improved upon.
Re empire,it will be interesting to see the liquid's breakdown given they flagged the liquids in that area some time back.
A decent liquids content and the current flow rates from carpenteria would be a decent result

IMHO of course

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/australias-east-coast-may-face-gas-shortfall-next-year-watchdog-warns-2022-07-31/

Like you WW,I have also used the filter button ... today's presentation was for me,a re iteration of the positive outlook I have held for a while.
Yes,we have all had a moan about progress etc but it's clear now,in less than 6 months,we will hopefully have transformational news .
While poq is generally very positive in the past,it was clear yesterday that he is very excited and he declared that to all and sundry.
While I am not wearing rose tinted glasses,I know there are some risks but with the upcoming work program starting in less than 2 months,let's forget about the delays ,insults etc and focus on the future which is now clearer than ever

Sorry WW

We
I know you are travelling but you mentioned you spoke with poq a few times,I assume in recent times.
One thing I would like to know relate to the upcoming drill and flow rates later this year, early 23.
It appears the flow rates have been talked down to 2/3 mmscf etc however,do you get any sense your guesstimate of 4/5 is more expected at headquarters or am I putting words in your mouth?
Just interested.its clear to all and sundry that Philip has been very bullish for years,I suppose that's his job really.
Just curious on your opinions

Ss

WW
Like you I believe it's best to manage expectations on the flow rates.
In a scenario of 4/5 mmscf/day,early 2023,do you or anyone who has an opinion, believe that we will be taken out or what is your "long-term" definition.
Appreciate any opinions
Ss

Just reading an article on Reuters;
LNG on the s&P jkm benchmark was $38.84 dollars at close yesterday,Monday, 1700 %higher than the same day in 2020.Its eye watering.

Let's hope we get commercial flow rates because at this rate,the Beetaloo could be worth a fortune!

WW
You have been missing in action,I guess there wasn't much action to get excited about.I wondered had you lost your enthusiasm for what lies ahead.
The next 9 months will likely decide our future and thankfully, despite what many had doubted would happen,it looks like we are on the move again.
No doubt the naysayers will be telling us we don't have time,the rig will fall apart it something else to create some doubt.Dont read their posts any longer and haven't for a while.
Patience

It may not be Sheffield Derick but if you look at the lse yesterday, minimal volume and easy to cap any stock movement.it puts a buyer in Canada in the cat bird seat to Hoover up any overhang in Canada.It is the first sign of decent volume a few days before the AGM which likely points to some good news.
The plan likely was to announce a start at the AGM all along.
Another thing,there is still plenty of time in 2022 because remember the kyalla nitrogen lift being done after Christmas 2 years ago so the weather should be agreeable into end January when hopefully flow tests are running.
JMHO of course

It may not be Sheffield Derick but if you look at the lse yesterday, minimal volume and easy to cap any stock movement.it puts a buyer in Canada in the cat bird seat to Hoover up any overhang in Canada.It is the first sign of decent volume a few days before the AGM which likely points to some good news.
The plan likely was to announce a start at the AGM all along.
Another thing,there is still plenty of time in 2022 because remember the kyalla nitrogen lift being done after Christmas 2 years ago so the weather should be agreeable into end January when hopefully flow tests are running.
JMHO of course

Despite it being July 3rd,I still expect,like you newtofo, confirmation around the AGM in 2 weeks or so
Surely,at this time we would have been told there was a problem with years program rather than leave us hang like this.One has to still assume that the message earlier in the year re the Amungee fracs still stands for 2022 with the pilot production hopefully 2023 plan

Darnit
I expect we will hear the work program for 2022'will commence in a few weeks and I would be shocked if that's not the case
In any event,let's assume that I am correct...are you out for good;I recall you sold out earlier this year?
With the Sheffield influence likely doing it's bit as we speak and its vast US experience...in other words,what bits of the jigsaw would need to fall in place for you to get involved again given the pivotal events of the expected 2022 program.
Just inquisitive really

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/lng/112621-australia-lays-out-plan-to-secure-20-more-years-of-gas-supply

I can't remember seeing this article posted ,sorry it it was.
Still worth a re read

Darnit,no doubt political risk is on the rise worldwide although the Ukrainian situation may give reason to step back and look again.
The risk to energy security is huge in a lot of European countries let alone the financial implications to a country like Australia who depend on the LNG export to the growing eastern Market.
The biggest risk to the northern territory is that it gets no royalty from the offshore oil and gas industry and without gas to export and keep the lights ,the energy transition will also be at risk due to financial constraints.
The politicians are beginning to realise in Germany the problem with energy security as coal powered stations are now back in full operation as gas is being restricted from Russia.

Darnit
With all due respect to Oleo and Hardrock,we have a multi billionaire shale expert and his team with a decent investment onboard.
This guy has travelled to the other side of the world where the growth will come from in the LNG space, going forward.I will take him anyday and again,that's in all respect to Oleo and Hardrock both of whom have great input to the chat.
What's more, Sheffield s crew would have access to any data room that falcon has around the Beetaloo prior to investment.
You don't start throwing around millions ,no matter how much you have, without having a steer on where it's going.Reputation alone would be important to the likes of Mr Sheffield.

Ss

Darnit
Big oil in general are not interested in buying bits and pieces in the market of an E&P company of falcons size..
Sheffield made ,what may be a very shrews move when he did a deal on the royalty and will be an important cornerstone going forward.No doubt,the new director,Lehman? had a role.
I believe the respect Sheffield commands in the industry has a few bigger players watching developments more closely now with a farmdown on the agenda by origin likely next year after the hopefully, successful flow tests.
The lack of pros sniffing around is no shock to me ...they likely are there but they won't be telling us

Ss

Hi poods
There's no need to ask if you are still a bull on this stock... you have answered my question.
If as I suspect,we will be drilling in the next 6 weeks or so,there may not be much volume but good luck if you are buying again,
May I ask your opinion on Mr Sheffield arriving on the scene.
Would that influence your decision to buy more or as you have often mentioned,the geology Trump's all?

Ss

Borntobooggie
You have made a serious effort in outlining all the relevant facts.
Thanks for that.
Re empire,if they have a decent result on their work due,where does it leave our velkerri flank well..... obviously it's not part of this year's program and where would it fit in with the pilot program proposed 23/24.
Could it be done in tandem with the pilot program?
It would be a pity to leave it before any sale could be contemplated if the empire indications are positive.

I like you believe a sale can take place next year if the flow tests are really positive although long standing institution s may want to hang in for more value.
The board needs a bit of positivity over the next few months...we know all the downside,delays etc.
The positive aspects should not be forgotten despite everything

Ss