Member Info for Sneakysnake

There's a few other very obvious posters missing today . Likely moved on to another board to waste there time and others with useless posts!
Wet water,Orson,you don't need any clowns permission to post on this board . Your input kept me interested when I could have moved elsewhere.
You were spot on with your expectations .It would appear that the road ahead may be significantly less challenging
Ss

Thanks newtofo for your detailed reply .It wouldn't be a big surprise if a 5 yr old well didn't co-operate but disappointing that clarification on the frack stages wasn't forthcoming as we would hopefully have something to hang our hats on then while we wait for Santos to start flow tests on their current wells due 4th quarter,most likely.
In any event,you are likely correct that a new horizontal velkerri will be on the 2022 agenda to grab some government funding and bag new resources also.
Thanks again

Anyone any idea how long this may take and exactly what's involved?
I wondered why it wasn't completed in 2016 if there was a hint that there might be an issue.....I assume there must be good grounds for the re test though.
It's likely the moratorium kicked in and halted progress.
Appreciate any feedback

Origin, your last line sums up my biggest fear around this investment,the timing.
We seem to have the geology but every day lost adds to my concern.
There appears to be a Nat gas supply crunch on the horizon in the mid 20s onwards and most credible research has identified this however the uncertainty around the speed of the energy transition is something that needs watching.We need real progress now and commercial flow rates so the industry begins to take note.There is likely a 15/20 year window where we need to have this asset producing to maximize value,from the mid 20s onwards.
Of course,the lack of FID on projects around the world at the moment will add to the supply concerns further down the road so it may be to Australia s advantage given its location near the Asian market.
I bet the moratorium in Australia is something the government may regret now as this asset would be a lot closer to FID now eventhough it did established a social licence.
The current share price action may be the forced selling but there is also an element of marginal investors likely turning their backs on the oil and gas sector.Time will tell if they are correct!
We need evidence of commercial flow rates now,a bit of luck with the kyalla and no more set backs....my patience is wearing thin like many here

Tbn presented at the "Developing northern Australia conference" recently.
Some interesting bits on timelines,cost breakdown, commercial flow rates etc.
Sorry,bit of a dinosaur on attaching the details but likely available on Google.Definiely worth a read

Newtofo
I expect a horizontal into the velkerri wet next year and was hoping the kyalla would be the other for 2022.
We then move into 2023 with a velkerri dry or two depending on the 2022 outcome.
It's a guess really but we need 2high impact wells next year without doubt.
It would be nice to have the wet plays still on board after 2021 given they would be commercially more beneficial long-term.
The kyalla may yet be salvaged.
We have a shot still as it's not a water issue that many feared and origin in theirtwo most recent results still reference the downhill blockage and their aim to flow test.
If they were a junior trying to avoid biting the bullet of a poor outcome,I would say it was an excuse but a company of org size would bite the bullet early and walk away from this well if there was no hope.They are not pandering to falcon or their shareholders I would think.
Again,that may turn out to be wishful thinking,time will tell.

When you sit back and see the lack of progress since the amungee discovery,it really is disappointing.Granted,we have had the moratorium,covid, kyalla difficulty etc
Not being one to ponder on the past,let's look forward.
I have changed my mind about 2022 in that we are likely not doing 2 velkerri dry horizontal next year,that's likely 2023.I suppose that means anyone not prepared to hang in until end 2023 need to move on and not whinge any longer.We are still 2/3 years from an exit and I am not reading the same whining every 2or 3 days until then.
That said,by this time next year,Tbn and Santos will have up to 5 wells in the velkerri completed or in progress and empire should be making progress also..
Has anyone an opinion on whether their results from end 2021 would be strong enough for origin to do a farm out end 2022/23? or they spin off their E&P assets perhaps?
I am in poods camp here re buying a little at these prices....to get a decent return and to average down as most are currently under water,this is a decent opportunity,you have to hold your nose though!
The volume has been thin in the US and Canada with a few decent days in London.
I presume the forced seller is using all markets or just Canada?

The market loves positive surprises and the kyalla may be that surprise that many have almost written off.
If we get a good outcome,this share will double very quickly.
Neither origin nor falcon have tried to dampen our expectations around the kyalla either so it's still a live prospect.
It would be a real game changer!
I think flow test at the amungee based on four frack stages would be positive but not really a surprise and the velkerri wet in my humble opinion is expected to be a live prospect for horizontal fracking down the road, again positive but not a surprise to me at least.Fingers crossed to be sure

We believe it will only take one well from either the origin or Santos operated average to achieve our gas flow threshold (as success can be replicated across the basin) to prove concept and confirm our expectation that a large scale development is commercially viable.
This was Jan 2019 I believe from ubs

Thenks newtofo.
The comment you allude to was from UBS if memory serves me correctly.

Santos are likely preparing to drill their second horizontal into the velkerri as we speak.
Early indications of fracks are a few months away I suspect.
Does anyone have an opinion on what it does for our share price?
Both wells in this year's program are high impact so we should get a helping hand if the initial results from the vertical fracks carry through or is that wishful thinking?
Also,one would expect after our program is complete this term that we will see some concrete plans for 2022 especially once the amungee flow rate issues have been clarified.
The elephant in the room is the kyalla...if the downhill blockage could be resolved,then that would be significant!

Yep,fair point and it seems a lot of countries are declaring for net Zero by 2050 then realising it costs a lot of tax payers dollars to pay for it.Politicians want to get re elected and raising taxes etc isn't a popular move!

Bloomberg News on LNG

Global LNG market faces shake up after Japan's green shift.
It appears LNG imports could drop a third by 2030 if green shift succeeds.

Time to pull the finger out in the northern territory!

end "rns'

Oleo
With all due respect,the end said there was "evidence' of a blockage.
Last winter,there were speculation on this board of salinity,damaged aquifers etc....it's pure speculation as I said.The flow back was impaired by a blockage if you accept the latest RNs.
We deal with the problem in front of us now ,hope we see success and then we deal with any other like water saturation when we are told it's a problem,if at all
I am happy to deal with issues as they appear rather than looking for a problem which may or may not exist
Surely anyone investing in the oil and gas space understand s there are many and varied outcomes in this game.If you can't accept that,then ....
this game is bound to disappoint!

LK
I hope I am correct but I believe yesterdays low may be a very good entry point 2 yrs down the road.A low volume day and if I was to split hairs,I prefer to hear that there may be a blockage that could be resolved favourably and not an issue with water as first suggested last December.
Re the share price, without the kyalla,to get a multiple of your investment in 2 yrs time......let it be 30p,that wouldn't be to be sneezed at.
The velkerri dry is huge,we know that.The velkerri wet will likely show very good signs,as did the kyalla of course!
In my opinion,I would be very concerned if we started seeing sustained trade below 5p because if the velkerri dry isn't worth 30p,then we have all being fooled and significant indications as to the commerciality of the velkerri are a few months away at most.
I may eat my words,I hope not.
There was always a risk with the kyalla but I was prepared for that because the geology of the velkerri seemed impressive and still does and we had a significant discovery bagged in a fraction of our holding.Nothing has changed on that score but the market and the investor s have forgotten that.
Believe me, tamboran will be blowing their trumpets hopefully before the wet season as they have an agenda ,very similar to ours.
We wait and see

Your final comments re being out of reach of origin is likely correct.
For that reason,I think origin will do two horizontal s in 2022 in the velkerri dry .We may then see an exit for us and a new player brought in to unlock the wet gas zones(s)unless the velkerri wet gas is technically very promising.Of course,the vertical kyalla set up looked exciting too but obviously it's a bit more complicated than it initially appeared.

While the share price has taken a drubbing,the volume hasn't been huge which to me indicates that there were folk buying here on a short term horizon,in hope that the kyalla might be successfully flow tested and want out now .Some years back, today's scenario of a kyalla misfire was discussed.Back then,many believed,as this scenario unfolded,that it was likely a buying opportunity in advance of more positive news on the velkerri dry gas play.Its tough to be a buyer today though.
For what it's worth,I had ratcheted down my expectations on a 2 yr view.
What once in my mind was a US dollar bet is now maybe 50c in 2023...but I would be happy with that to bring this to an end by then .I am praying Santos can give us something to look forward to over the winter!

Success at the kyalla will be a turning point,IMO.
Failure,we are likely looking at September when first indications emerge from Santos re their initial flow rates.
Some serious trades on the lse last few weeks?
Surely,the forced selling from bankruptcy must be nearing an end.
This is it's third year if my memory serves me correctly.

Any opinions on what's priced in re the kyalla......in other words,has the market already priced in that this well may be a problem.
I hope so although with all the action around our tenament and our other work due this year,there may be little reaction,at least that's what I hope!