Member Info for Sneakysnake

Thanks newtofo, thought that might be nearing an end.
Shouldbe a change in fortunes then and maybe it coincides with a bit of good news from ourselves and/or Santos

All
Anyone hazard a guess who is selling?
Seems to be an endless supply at 11.5c. Should there not have been notification s along the way as this seller seems to be around for a while now....we are talking tens of millions of shares being sold.

Ss

Darnit
Much of the frustrations on this board is well founded but with Santos now active,Tamboran also,we are heading into 2 yrs of , what I believe will be decent delivery by Org given government inducement etc. and Empire moving at speed.
Santos activity alone will pressure org into action.
Since the moratorium ended,it has been difficult to get any momentum and hence the share price has suffered by a seller,lack of news and shareholder apathy.Once we get clarity on the kyalla,the runway opens up for the next few years.
Tolstoy once said "the two greatest soldiers are patience and time"
I might have inserted "extreme patience and eternity"in our case.
Best of luck
Ss

Darnit
You really are frustrated.
I would ask you and Oleo what you would do differently then?
What would you have done differently this year given the cards we were dealt with the kyalla we'll still pending and how you would see things panning out for 2022 in your scenario.
Of course,we have a budget that needs to be adhered to so as to avoid any further fund raises.
Oleo,you are in the business so you might help me out .
We all know the velkerri dry has to be further appraised but how would you deal with the liquids rich areas given their economic benefit vs dry gas?
Santos don't have any options as their area is exclusively dry gas.

Ss

Long knife
The departure of David Close was a hammer blow to Org and their Beetaloo plans.It was Santos's gain .
This year, Santos will hopefully demonstrate flow rate that show a path to commerciality of the velkerri dry gas and that will be huge for us.
We have other fish to fry with our liquids rich plays that would be a game changer if successful,an option Santos don't have as they are exclusively chasing dry gas.
Poods is bang on regards being careful how we spend our budget.Who wants another round of dilution?
Ss

60% of the total gain in the last year but in a completely different field that would be perceived to be not as high risk as the O&g arena.
In reality,the O&g business is completely out of favour.
Anyone with funds to deploy today would look elsewhere, however it's not that simple.
As the article I referenced yesterday highlights,there will be outsized winner s out of the energy transition.The LNG business seems to have a decent future if the experts out there are correct, especially if you are in close proximity to Asia.
The Aus government seem to agree and have put their money where their mouths are.
Not only is it an important industry in Australia,it gives energy security down the road.
No one wants to be caught paying the exorbitant prices paid over the last few months for lng cargos, on a regular basis,down the road.

Long knife,the journey gets a lot more interesting from here.While I have downplayed this year's work,that would all change if we get a decent flow test from the kyalla.Look where the share price was last Nov before we know the problems they were having.
If that flow test is successful,I believe the share price will never see these levels again.If it isn't showing promise,then we will be waiting until later this year obviously,and the velkerri works.
I don't want to upset green lantern but honestly, anyone expecting anything less than two years until we see a possible exit will be seriously disappointed.Yes,it's frustrating but the budget available should give us max bang for our buck when a sale eventually arrives and to be fair to origin,the are spending the available budget in a considered manner albeit appearing to be painfully slow.I don't want this sold until every available dollar has been used to maximize my investment.I have waited 9 yrs , another 2/2.5 yrs will be ok.
The frustrations will subside if we see a rising share price and hopefully the flow test is the beginning of that.
Personally,I have been buying at these prices incase the kyalla "surprises "me ....in my own head I am expecting the worst but like newtofo,have a feeling it might surprise given it is at least flowing and there may be a solution found in the interim.
Finally,9 yrs ago I split some funds between this and another "distressed"asset, which falcon was essentially back then.The other asset is now 900%higher...... don't talk to me about frustrating.I could have been all in on the successful investment back then and have bought falcon today at a lower price than I did back then.
That's frustration!
Keep the faith.

Theedgemarketing article

"Brent crude oil prices could fall to 10 USD if Paris agreement targets met"

Itguy
Good to see some action.
Many seem to ignore the impact our neighbour s will have on our operation.
You will recall UBS highlighting the value uplift we get from Santos or others showing "proof of concept "across the Beetaloo given the vast pervasiveness of similar shale.That is as important for 2021 as our work programme which is if anything a little underwhelming but valuable all the same.
I am here 9 yrs having been told at the time it was a 10 yr investment.I can understand people wanting out but by the end of 2022,this will look a whole lot different, especially when we have a few 3km horizontal s behind us and Santos have confirmed their initial findings.On a separate note,
Re the future of crude and LNG,there is a very worthwhile read on "theedgemarkets.com re how things shake out over the next few decades to 2050.
The future for lng and dry gas pricing is very bright if wood Mac are near the mark.
At the moment,imported LNG prices based on Henry hub pricing,re gasification, transport etc is in excess of 8 Aus dollars.
That does not allow for onward distribution after re gasification etc let alone the unknowable cost of energy security to Australia.
Finally,it is disappointing given Monday is April 19th that we haven't heard anything about a start date etc.
It only adds to the already considerable frustration out there .
Always remember one thing....the geology doesn't lie!
Ss

...... likely means it's imminent!!
That would be good news for the beetaloo,a more focused management team on the exploration side with a different,more appropriate skill set.
This has been out there for a while now but if ORG are serious about developing the Beetaloo,which I believe they are then this latest rumour might indicate some intent.
An all share buyout of fog in 2 yrs time or thereabouts would allow them to move to the next step of the commercialization path.
That is of course if the Santos,Empire and Tamborans views amongst others,is correct that this is indeed a world class shale play!
Ss

poods,I have been working an order in Canada for 500k shares last 10 days.....had 250 K at 11c with limited success so raised to 11.5c mid last week.
Order filled now at 11.5c.
I assume we are still buying the bankruptcy shares or has anyone another angle?
Ss

Just a quote from UBS re the beetaloo

"We consider that it will only take one well from either the Origin or Santos operated acerage to achieve or gas flow threshold (as success can be replicated across the basin) to 'prove concept ' and confirm or expectation that a large scale development is commercially viable.
We acknowledge there are a range of factors which could impact the timing of the development,but expect that origin could capture or decrisked valuation via an asset sale from as early as Sept 19.....end quote.

Santos have since reported significant results as have Empire.
I am not suggesting the above UBS note means we are guaranteed commercial success but it was their view back in 2019.
I wouldn't get too carried away and the world has changed a lot since but UBS are not as negative as you may believe.

Atb

Yep, understand all that.
It was just you mentioned yesterday that UBS was one broker that was giving the chance of commercial success a roughly one in ten chance .
If you read that note I refer to,it paints a much different feel than the one you portrayed!
Maybe the note was client only or you didn't read it?
As I said,you may have a more recent note from UBS that supports your opinions and I may have missed that.
Thanks

Hi born to boogie.
I checked my notes again re your comments on analyst views on commerciality of the beetaloo.
UBS in a note on origin energy in 2019 were very positive on the prespects for commerciality of the beetaloo.
You may recall they suggested that success by Santos in their work programme would add to the case for commerciality and raised the possibility of a farm down as early as Sept 2019 .
That note is worth reading again.
There may be some comments since that contradict s their view then but I haven't seen them.
Not being difficult,just in case you missed it
S

Thanks born to bouggie
Perhaps you might direct me to the analysts you refer to in paragraph one.
I would like to read their thoughts in more detail

ATB

Long,while I agree on a share price hit should org decide to walk away from the kyalla,the share price drop will be more measured if a once off problem is identified and another go at the kyalla is agreed upon in April.It is imperative the feedback is clear on this.
Also,I think poq is a decent sort.The vibes from the AGM,the statement of some confidence in seeing a successful outcome,less than a month ago,is worth notice.Why would he put himself in the line of fire with a statement that recently unless there was a genuine belief that the kyalla was still a genuine world class prospect with a more than average chance of success.Add to that,at the AGM time,6 wks or so had elapsed since the early November rns.With today's technology, surely a damaged acquifer for example would have been obvious and a nitrogen lift would not have been attempted or
Maybe I am naive after all!
Let's see, can't be long now for news

Merve,you sound like a balanced, sophisticated investor and you are not the only one on this board, showing respect to others,not finding it necessary to bleat about their successes in lifeand loose the plot when their failures are highlighted.Lets face it,it's likely many of us have had our share too but don't find it necessary to tell all and sundry, humility I believe it's called.We also realise that for every success in high octane stocks,there are more who crash and burn,than succeed, and with it goes your cash.Good luck to anyone who tries to convince me they can beat the odds if you play in those areas of the market.....I am not that naive.I have had both experience's.
In general,this board is pretty balanced .I like you believe fog will be fine in time.If I am wrong,then I take it on the Chin.
It's pretty frustrating waiting but let's face it, the current work programme will likely determine the timing of any farmout plans org might have in the near term....I believe it's game on if kyalla 117 succeeds but is next year's story with further velkerri success if the kyalla proves disappointing..All stops will be pulled out now before any news release,Org are all over this and need a win to get a major involved to share the burden.
It may be that a curve ball deems 117 is not as it should be but as ww mentioned,we are likely back for another bite of the kyalla cherry in April.should that be the case.The geology hasn't change since the preliminary tests were carried outi don't hear malice on anyone just good luck to the genuine shareholders,long and short term.

Jfh
The rns on Nov 4th stated that following installation of production tubing,flow back re commenced with minor gas breakthrough which I assume (or should I),was flared?

John P
I don't believe it's a notifeable event.
If it was,we didn't hear about the flaring back in November albeit a poor flare but it did last for a few days or am I missing something?

Tn
The communication here has been awful but an rns on December 24th to tell us the equipment had arrived on site was unnecessary but very welcome news to us all given the Christmas break.It gave us all hope that some progress was being made.That was done for the small shareholders,us and could easily have waited until after the break.We wouldn't have known that the gear had arrived or not.
Yes it's POQ s job but I believe it cheered up most long suffering shareholders.
Success or not ,we now wait......if the engineers arrived back after new year's, would that surprise anyone given the lack of urgency since the flow back commenced in November
Most knowledgeable people realise this is an appraisal well.....if some small amount of damage has occurred awaiting the nitrogen lift,it's a pity but not a catastrophe.
We want indicative flow tests to guide the next steps.In all honesty,I am happy to listen to the experts on site.....if they believe no damage had been done to the stagnant well since November,that's good enough for me.If anyone can prove otherwise, please post their information.I read somewhere,and I will post if I can put my hands on it,that production dropped 10to 13%on some producing but then shut in wells,after re commencing production after shut in.
That's not hugely significant if the kyalla,as an appraisal well,flows as we expect.
I want to be clear...I am not happy with the way my investment has performed.I am not a poq spokesperson either but let's face it,the contracted companies are the experts here,they will run this current phase at their pace.Poq will have no say,nor will Origin .
Re the share price,2million shares yesterday is neither here nor there .This is mainly a market made stock and will be pushed around at will.With a billion shares out,who is surprised.
I expect a flare at some stage,that will not tell me anything except the gas in the well bore hasn't disappeared,nor would I expect it to.Until then,I wait.I don't expect any real indication for days after the flare and remember there are 30days in most months and that's how long any indication of measureable flow rates may take!
Atb