Member Info for Sneakysnake

It's easy to see why we traded at 7.9c us today....... this incompetence is getting serious.
I guess the market won't be expecting much from the kyalla clean up or at least I hope it's not because this incompetence wouldn't give much hope of success

8
Loss of confidence in management and execution of this asset.

Born to boogie,you are on the mark re empire comment.
Maybe we shouldn't be too surprised though.
In a recent article,"signals point to solid ground prosperity as offshore drilling takes a dip"Dan levy,Citi analyst and formerly Pangea resources (so he has local knowledge)while highlighting the Perth and Beetaloo basin as his favourite onshore plays,he also commented that "smaller players "chasing the velkerri at shallower depths than Santos and org was technically high risk but if successful "would open up a big section of the Beetaloo many had written off as uncommercial"
While on the tanumburini 1 he stated" if their(Santos) first vertical well results are anything to go by,this current horizontal could be a milestone well for the basin , achieving'commercial'flow rates for the first time.
Let's wait and see but interesting few months ahead

And add to that Dick Stoneburner s comments ,the ex petrohawk founder,that the tanumburini 1 was as good a well as he had seen drilled.
It's not all bad and hopefully Santos can back it up and give us a boost.

Oleo
Had a look at my notes and in Jan 2020 in the Australian financial review Angela MacDonald,she quoted Kevin Gallagher on the tanumburini 1 vertical flow results.It was then the 10 times flow rate achievable for a likely 3 km horizontal was quoted vs the vertical flow rate.
He also commented on the vertical flow rate that "it was well within the acceptable success criteria"
Just wanted to clarify

It it not the case oleo ,within the industry, that expectations around a horizontal could be up to 10times the vertical flow rate?
This was published somewhere along the way regards the tanumburi I well and this is why Kevin Gallagher was impressed with the vertical frack.
Also,is it not the case that part of org program this year is to clarify how many stages contributed to the horizontal amungee well so I think it's expected the next step due later this autumn will set the record straight,I hope, and should improve the picture

Although it wouldn't be Kevin Gallagher style to talk up the current drill at tanumburi,it certainly would be in Tamboran s interest to say something, albeit early days, prior to IPO next week.While flow test results are a few months away,I am sure there may be some early indications on progress etc.
Maybe not but as the Beetaloo is Tamboran s main focus,it would be a surprise if they hadn't something to say!

Australian shale play to debut despite green energy push as per Reuters.
Tbn to debut June 30.
Planning to raise further funds end 2022 by selling assets based on drilling results .
According to Joel riddle,there has been interest already from INPEX and Total.
These are just some of the 6 outlets for
Beetaloo gas ,east coast and LNG plants etc.
We need to be up there with Santos and tamboran by end 2022 or we will be left behind!
Ss

Article in guardian re federal labour support for developing the Beetaloo and the gas industry in Oz.
Hard to see with all the political support that we won't eventually see some serious progress here.

Tn
Org are running the show now and fog are toothless.This is the way big business treats us retail investors,the people who have kept this show on the road with capital raises in the past.Org believe the notification in March of the bill of works for 2021 fulfills their obligations to us.
Don't expect things to change.Poq and falcon are passengers now and org will dictate, which scares me if I'm honest.The only thing keeps me here is that Santos, Tamboran and Empire are ploughing ahead and if the Beetaloo is a commercial entity,which I believe it is or I wouldn't be here obviously,then Org will be part of that as long as we aren't robbed in the meantime! Thank God for some big institution shareholders here as they will hopefully protect our interest,I hope

Well Dick Stoneburner said of the tanumburi I,it was as good a well as he had seen.Bear in mind,he is the president of Tamboran who were preparing then for an IPO but Kevin Gallagher Santos ceo also indicated that the results were above expectations .
Stoneburner sold petrohawk for 12 bill 10 year back so he has been around a while.Hopefully we might head into next year with something to look forward to with possibly 3 plays still active, kyalla,velkerri and velkerri wet
We will see!

Newtofo
I wouldn't underestimate what news from our neighbours,Santos might do!
If their two horizontal s fulfill the initial indications,there would likely be "proof of concept" discussion around the Beetaloo sub basin and talk of likely commerciality.Of course,org need to do their dirty work but it might give long suffering shareholders some chunk of light that we are getting there.
JMO of course

New article on upstream online also.
Paid access unfortunately

Tda and Beetaloo.
I am a large shareholder here as you can see from my posts.
The points raised by orlavid have been at the forefront of my mind for a while.
I have been doing some reading ,wood Mac,EY, McKinsey etc on their outlook for the LNG market until 2050.
The base case future is bright for lng however,if the IEA scenario outlined 2 weeks back were to become reality,in other words, an accelerated energy transition,then orlavid might be making the right move.
Let's face it,if this play was in the USA,I wouldn't be here.The location ,close to Asian markets,the natural gas issues in Oz etc makes this play more attractive.
Long and short,I am a buyer by choice at these prices and not a seller but I am a little concerned that the messing around at the moment is not good for the image of how things role in Origins back yard.
Just my opinion though

If the kyalla hasn't been shut in and flowback was as stated about 500bpd since Dec , allowing that flow back has continued since,the well should have cleared ?
That's probably simplistic and unlikely as it might be risky to allow flowback without staff on site.
Any ideas?
Ss

Out of interest green,I assume by what you say yoU have also given up then on this play?

Out of interest green,I assume by what you say y

That's Bayu undan backfill for Darwin...

Given the political alignment of China,Qatar,Iran etc ,it shows how important the development of Nat gas in Australia is and will be going forward,not only for security of supply in Australia but also for countries that may not be politically aligned with Russia, Qatar etc and there are many in that neck of the woods.

There is no doubt that the problem with the kyalla was a curve ball.The geology,the technical data all pointed to a very exciting prospect.I think org were caught flat footed and were likely banking on success and had their work programme geared around success .The problem encountered means the program of work had to be stalled until a resolution can be found.There is likely a simple answer here....this needs a specialist contractor to resolve the problem and they are not available yet.But why not tell us that.Its a poor reflection on fog/org that we are being treated like this.
The real issue that is beginning to worry me a little is the ongoing energy transition.If projects like this are delayed significantly,come 2025,there may be shareholder reluctance to back a project of this size ....there is a 20 yr window for lng to prosper in the transition and the NT government have alluded to that in their support for the beetaloo.Dont get me wrong,we all want a cleaner environment but there is now a lot of focus on natural gas and it has happened much quicker than many had expected.Coal was the had boy and that was an easy target.Nat gas is now the target,leaks,flaring,methane more damaging that CO2 etc.
This project needs to be ready to be part of the transition .There is no doubt that nat gas will be part of the energy mix even in 2050 but let's be ready for that 20/25 yr period when the Beetaloo will be most valuable.
This pace of progress is laughable and has frustrated even the most ardent supporter s of this stock.
The dry season cannot be wasted and here we are,mid May and silence!
Go easy
Ss